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March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak

Downeastnc said:
level 4 is the new polar vortex or bomb cyclone........its how the media is referring to a Mod risk......
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I think using the numbers 1 through 5 is a better way to alert the public than the wording used by the SPC. They don't make sense to me. Slight and marginal are essentially the same meaning, and if something is enhanced it is actually greater than the definition of something moderate.
 
Brick Tamland said:
We definitely don't need the clouds to clear out before tomorrow. If we have sun tomorrow morning it's just going to make the severe chance even greater.
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Clouds clearing out here on the Coast as I type=Temps rising..
 
The wedge started breaking up over an hour ago I think. It actually felt fairly humid out while I went out, but it was nice overall.

Yeah, I'm on the southern end of the areas that can get CAD, but I still can get a good amount of it at times. It was kinda cool for most of the day.
 
I arrived in Wilmington this afternoon and it was a very cool 50 here. I was surprised it was that cool. The sun has since come out and it has warmed some.
 
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snowlover91 said:
Despite the soundings, NAM and HRRR don’t have much in the way of updraft helicity or strong storms across NC. They’ve consistently been showing this for the past day or so as well and aren’t backing down.

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HRRR isnt much but it appears the NAM 3km has mini supercells which aren’t really picked up on 2-5km UH
 
snowlover91 said:
Despite the soundings, NAM and HRRR don’t have much in the way of updraft helicity or strong storms across NC. They’ve consistently been showing this for the past day or so as well and aren’t backing down.

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Updraft helicity really isn't a good measure of environmental favorability and I almost never look at it when forecasting severe weather. For ex, favorable environments with mesocyclones that are smaller than the grid spacing of the model won't be resolved at all

See:

 
Webberweather53 said:
Updraft helicity really isn't a good measure of environmental favorability and I almost never look at it when forecasting severe weather. For ex, favorable environments with mesocyclones that are smaller than the grid spacing of the model won't be resolved at all

See:

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I’ll have to look into it more, but it just seems odd to me to see the UH drop off as the storms approach the Carolinas and the Sim radar matches as well. The UH tracks of the 3km NAM/HRRR have been very good at depicting the area of highest tornado activity and supercells that we are seeing in AL, MS and surrounding areas. I’m interested to see how tomorrow plays out across the area and how quickly the airmass will juice up too.
 
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