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March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak

Downeastnc said:
level 4 is the new polar vortex or bomb cyclone........its how the media is referring to a Mod risk......
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I think using the numbers 1 through 5 is a better way to alert the public than the wording used by the SPC. They don't make sense to me. Slight and marginal are essentially the same meaning, and if something is enhanced it is actually greater than the definition of something moderate.
 
Brick Tamland said:
We definitely don't need the clouds to clear out before tomorrow. If we have sun tomorrow morning it's just going to make the severe chance even greater.
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Clouds clearing out here on the Coast as I type=Temps rising..
 
The wedge started breaking up over an hour ago I think. It actually felt fairly humid out while I went out, but it was nice overall.

Yeah, I'm on the southern end of the areas that can get CAD, but I still can get a good amount of it at times. It was kinda cool for most of the day.
 
I arrived in Wilmington this afternoon and it was a very cool 50 here. I was surprised it was that cool. The sun has since come out and it has warmed some.
 
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snowlover91 said:
Despite the soundings, NAM and HRRR don’t have much in the way of updraft helicity or strong storms across NC. They’ve consistently been showing this for the past day or so as well and aren’t backing down.

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HRRR isnt much but it appears the NAM 3km has mini supercells which aren’t really picked up on 2-5km UH
 
snowlover91 said:
Despite the soundings, NAM and HRRR don’t have much in the way of updraft helicity or strong storms across NC. They’ve consistently been showing this for the past day or so as well and aren’t backing down.

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Updraft helicity really isn't a good measure of environmental favorability and I almost never look at it when forecasting severe weather. For ex, favorable environments with mesocyclones that are smaller than the grid spacing of the model won't be resolved at all

See:

 
Webberweather53 said:
Updraft helicity really isn't a good measure of environmental favorability and I almost never look at it when forecasting severe weather. For ex, favorable environments with mesocyclones that are smaller than the grid spacing of the model won't be resolved at all

See:

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I’ll have to look into it more, but it just seems odd to me to see the UH drop off as the storms approach the Carolinas and the Sim radar matches as well. The UH tracks of the 3km NAM/HRRR have been very good at depicting the area of highest tornado activity and supercells that we are seeing in AL, MS and surrounding areas. I’m interested to see how tomorrow plays out across the area and how quickly the airmass will juice up too.
 
snowlover91 said:
I’ll have to look into it more, but it just seems odd to me to see the UH drop off as the storms approach the Carolinas and the Sim radar matches as well. The UH tracks of the 3km NAM/HRRR have been very good at depicting the area of highest tornado activity and supercells that we are seeing in AL, MS and surrounding areas. I’m interested to see how tomorrow plays out across the area and how quickly the airmass will juice up too.
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UH tracks are just as easily influenced by storm size as they are the environment. Small supercells with even smaller mesocyclones aren't gonna show up on models w/ 3km grid spacing
 
Webberweather53 said:
UH tracks are just as easily influenced by storm size as they are the environment. Small supercells with even smaller mesocyclones aren't gonna show up on models w/ 3km grid spacing
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It's probably been 12 orso years now but there was an early May tornado outbreak over central eastern NC that were mostly small supercells. Cant remember the year but the storms were tiny.
 
Lickwx said:
Hit 62 in Raleigh! Wayyy higher than short range models had. What does that mean for tomorrow ? We will probably very successfully clear out the CAD.
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Clouds made a comeback here, albeit briefly. They are clearing again. I don't think we'll have any problems pushing the warm sector outta here tomorrow.
 
I doubt we'll see anything here tomorrow like what is happening today. Probably some very isolated severe storms, but I doubt we'll have an outbreak. Just doesn't happen often around here.
 
The cool air will not move out of the area from Atlanta up the I-85 corridor up to the Triad, including the GSP and Charlotte metros. The warm air probably will not even make it to the southeast fringe of the GSP CWA. Chances of severe weather will be very low because of this for many of us. These wedge fronts never come as far north as modeled.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
RAP doest even really have much in Charlotte however it does for areas East
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I can't imagine that given this setup that the RAP is correct on that scenario playing out. Unless we end up wudged, which seems unlikely. That would be a huge bust by the SPC and most other media outlets. Not that we have ever busted, but this is way too much of a volatile setup to completely escape. We had a lot less in February last year to work with and we ended up getting smacked. We shall see...
 
JHS said:
The cool air will not move out of the area from Atlanta up the I-85 corridor up to the Triad, including the GSP and Charlotte metros. The warm air probably will not even make it to the southeast fringe of the GSP CWA. Chances of severe weather will be very low because of this for many of us. These wedge fronts never come as far north as modeled.
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Yeah... okay. That's why the whole forecast area you mentioned is at either an enhanced or moderate risk, with the SE portion possibly being upgraded to high risk by tonight. It's okay to make predictions but to completely dismiss how severe this could play out is irresponsible.
 
ryan1234 said:
Yeah... okay. That's why the whole forecast area you mentioned is at either an enhanced or moderate risk, with the SE portion possibly being upgraded to high risk by tonight. It's okay to make predictions but to completely dismiss how severe this could play out is irresponsible.
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Of course if the cool air moves out it'll be rough, but I just do not see it happening. This rain now will help lock the cool air in place. Places from Macon GA over to Augusta northeast though Columbia to Raleigh will be in the warm air and have a rough time of it. The really warm and juicy air is still well south in GA and not really anywhere in SC yet. Even NE Alabama is wedged in.
 
Just an FYI.. the wedge front is progged to make it's charge this evening into the overnight which is why where that warm front is will be a corridor where long track supercells could get going and front ride along it... The warm front isn't even progged to clear my area until after midnight...
 
Stormsfury said:
Just an FYI.. the wedge front is progged to make it's charge this evening into the overnight which is why where that warm front is will be a corridor where long track supercells could get going and front ride along it... The warm front isn't even progged to clear my area until after midnight...
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Took the words right out of my mouth. That warm front will be lifting northward over the overnight hours and like you said it isn't even progged to get up to CLT until the wee early morning hours. CLT is literally in the worse spot because we are always the first to warm up while GSP-Triad-and the NW Triangle are the last to warm up. Not sure where this guy has been all winter...
 
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