Enhanced area was also slightly expanded
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March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
Jrips2710
Member
I think you are also going to have to watch the CSG-MCN and South and SW area for warm front clearing type cells tomorrow as well. I have been noticing models becoming more and more impressed with convection before the "main" event gets here.
Chris Justus showed a model with main line passing through the upstate 1-2pm or so, then Brad P showed one with more like 10am-noon
mydoortotheworld
Member
Crazier this gets, the more I'm happy ATL will somehow get spared the worst
Snowflowxxl
Member
I wouldn’t talk in absolutes. While that is usually the case ATL had a EF2 rip right through the city in 2008 and was only under a “MARGINAL” risk. Anything can happen even though we get spared far more than not.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Plenty of times the last few years I have had worse storms here when we weren't even in a watch compared to when we were.
Brad P kinda kept that window open though, suggesting it could slow down. I guess their inhouse modeling is suggesting that. Really not liking these trends. Getting that eerie feeling about Thursday now. And even more so for tomorrow.
3 real areas to watch tomorrow, made some area averages soundings 
First area averaged sounding for area 3., is right along the warm front/south of it, overall low level shear isn’t scary high but it’s definitely enough, not much capping here So this could easily grunge, especially with meh 3km speed shear, and some little hint of vbv, however given the backed low level flow and impressive low level instability, a few tornadoes (strong possible) is possible given the low level backed flow along the boundary, along with damaging winds and marginally severe hail, if I was in C/S GA I’d watch for a rogue cell as well
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Area-avg sounding for area 1., overall this area is closest to the forcing and lacks any capping inversion, towards late afternoon/into the night things could grunge/collide, however LLLRs are pretty good, and there's some solidly backed flow (again low level shear isn’t incredibly strong), once again this argues for a tornado threat with a few strong ones with any discreet/semi-discreet supercells
One thing that jumps out vs other areas is the hail threat for these areas, MLLRs are over 7.5, mid level and upper level winds are favorable for very large hail, can kinda see the straightness of the Hodograph past 1km through 8km (this effectively ventilates supercells as well to give more classic structures), also a damaging wind threat should evolve especially as storms form into a QLCS
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area avg sounding for area 2, the most interesting in my opinion, you can see the EML in this one one quite well along with a mid level capping inversion, plenty of low level instability, solid low level shear, backed flow, but imo this area has potential to harbor a supercell/few supercells that could find there own open environment Given the EML and produce some tornadoes (some strong/violent ones)
First area averaged sounding for area 3., is right along the warm front/south of it, overall low level shear isn’t scary high but it’s definitely enough, not much capping here So this could easily grunge, especially with meh 3km speed shear, and some little hint of vbv, however given the backed low level flow and impressive low level instability, a few tornadoes (strong possible) is possible given the low level backed flow along the boundary, along with damaging winds and marginally severe hail, if I was in C/S GA I’d watch for a rogue cell as well
_________________________________________
Area-avg sounding for area 1., overall this area is closest to the forcing and lacks any capping inversion, towards late afternoon/into the night things could grunge/collide, however LLLRs are pretty good, and there's some solidly backed flow (again low level shear isn’t incredibly strong), once again this argues for a tornado threat with a few strong ones with any discreet/semi-discreet supercells
One thing that jumps out vs other areas is the hail threat for these areas, MLLRs are over 7.5, mid level and upper level winds are favorable for very large hail, can kinda see the straightness of the Hodograph past 1km through 8km (this effectively ventilates supercells as well to give more classic structures), also a damaging wind threat should evolve especially as storms form into a QLCS
__________________________________________
area avg sounding for area 2, the most interesting in my opinion, you can see the EML in this one one quite well along with a mid level capping inversion, plenty of low level instability, solid low level shear, backed flow, but imo this area has potential to harbor a supercell/few supercells that could find there own open environment Given the EML and produce some tornadoes (some strong/violent ones)
We
Welp, looks like my neck of the woods in West GA just got looped into the Enhanced region great....
Ron Burgundy
Member
The outlier “surprise” tornadoes are the ones that seem to get us. The ‘75 tornado that tore through NW ATL was the same way. And I believe the ‘98 Dunwoody tornado was on a slight risk night. Plus the absolute freak tornado that came out of a squall line moving SE from TN in June ‘13 and clobbered the Marietta / Sandy Springs area. First time I’d ever seen a tornado move NW to SE!
Justin Buchinsky
Member
Calling all people with NC chasing experience... Looking for advice as I begin planning a chase day. Favorable road networks, roads to avoid etc.
Any advice? I'm familiar with southern VA but never ventured south in my limited career.
Any advice? I'm familiar with southern VA but never ventured south in my limited career.
And if they add a high risk like they said they may, that often results in the mdt risk being pushed out even just a little bit, not guaranteed to expand tho
NoSnowATL
Member
Yea this isn’t looking bad from Atlanta north. Still might sneak 1-2 strong storms but nothing as of now to make me stay up late. I’ll be interested in seeing how much instability we can get tomorrow morning and afternoon. Wedge always saves us and probably will be the case again.
Stephenb888
Member
Seems like the main line of storms always fires up right along the NE GA/SC line. Didn’t get any snow this year but I can always count on Anderson Sc to get into the severe weather.
NoSnowJoe
Member
Looks the the HRRR is quicker but was still about to fire up a second round of storms over the NC peidmomt 
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
