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March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak

Myfrotho704_ said:
SPC wording tomorrow is pretty scary
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This doesn't sound good at all.

...North Carolina/South Carolina/Georgia/Virginia/Florida...
A positively-tilted upper-level low will move into the Tennessee
Valley on Thursday as a 75 to 90 kt mid-level jet moves across the
Southeast and Carolinas. At the surface, a low will move eastward
into the central Appalachians. At 12Z, a warm front will be located
from northern Georgia eastward across northern South Carolina. This
boundary will move northward across central and eastern North
Carolina during the morning. To the south of this front, surface
dewpoints across the warm sector will be in the mid to upper 60s F.
As surface temperatures warm, a pocket of moderate instability is
expected to develop to the south of the warm front across eastern
North Carolina by late morning. Convective development will be aided
by the low-level jet. Severe thunderstorms associated with large
hail, wind damage and a tornado threat, is expected during the mid
morning hours.

Further to the west, a band of large-scale ascent associated with
the approaching upper-level system will overspread the central
Appalachians around midday. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate
just ahead of this band of ascent around midday and move eastward
into the Appalachian foothills during the early afternoon. Ahead of
the storms, the environment will consist of MLCAPE in the 2000 to
2500 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 kt and storm relative
helicities of 300 to 350 m2/s2. This will support intense supercell
development. Tornadoes, wind damage and large hail will be likely
with the stronger storms. A long-track tornado will be possible
along or in the vicinity of the warm front. The time of maximum
threat is forecast to be in the 18Z to 22Z time window. A regional
outbreak of severe storms, along with several significant tornadoes
are expected from discrete cells that develop across the warm sector
from central North Carolina southward across much of South Carolina.

Further to the southwest into Georgia, a line of strong to severe
thunderstorms is expected to move into the area form the west during
the morning. A corridor of moderate instability is forecast to
develop just ahead of this line by late morning with instability
continuing to increase through the afternoon. This line of storms
will have access to a strong low-level jet, extending northeastward
across south-central and eastern Georgia. the environment should
have MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg along with 0-6 Km shear of 60 to 70
kt. This will be favorable for supercell and severe bowing line
segments. Supercells that form in the line may produce tornadoes,
wind damage and large hail. A potential for significant tornadoes
will exist with cells that form at the north end of gaps in the
line. This band of storms is expected to be accompanied by
widespread wind damage, moving across eastern Georgia and South
Carolina during the mid to late afternoon. Wind gusts of greater
than 65 kt will be possible with the more intense bowing line
segments. The southern part of the band may extend as far south as
the Florida Panhandle, where a severe threat will exist in the
morning and early afternoon.
 
Appears the wedge is trending stronger tomorrow morning on the HRRR, this could help/hurt
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Appears the wedge is trending stronger tomorrow morning on the HRRR, this could help/hurt
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Tough call for spc. Their wording is ominous and with future updates I could see them going high risk from say Columbia over greenville,sc and along the NC border just based on their wording.

Or the wedge wins and we are low 60s and cloudy with no time to destabalize.
 
Shaggy said:
Tough call for spc. Their wording is ominous and with future updates I could see them going high risk from say Columbia over greenville,sc and along the NC border just based on their wording.

Or the wedge wins and we are low 60s and cloudy with no time to destabalize.
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If the wedge wins tomorrow, climo favored areas of the south-central coastal plain of NC are probably screwed.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Appears the wedge is trending stronger tomorrow morning on the HRRR, this could help/hurt
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It’s going to screw us (in a bad way) in this area. Just based of tornado climatology and the fact that the CLT area is basically on the border- these areas have me the most concerned. Basically, draw a line from the beginning of the metro and continue moving it due east and south.


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ryan1234 said:
Pretty much the same as the one issued overnight. I don't like how close that purple hatch area is to CLT. This is getting to close for comfort, IMO.
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Even though it’s on the edge, Union county is now in that purple hatch area and it very worrisome when you have kids in school. As good as it is that the timing is not overnight, it could be very rough for Charlotte metro and east as school is dismissing
 
ryan1234 said:
It’s going to screw us (in a bad way) in this area. Just based of tornado climatology and the fact that the CLT area is basically on the border- these areas have me the most concerned. Basically, draw a line from the beginning of the metro and continue moving it due east and south.


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Yeah it could mean that the metro gets a double hit tomorrow with the severe weather... first early in the morning as the wedge boundary fires up and then the afternoon as the front comes through
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah it could mean that the metro gets a double hit tomorrow with the severe weather... first early in the morning as the wedge boundary fires up and then the afternoon as the front comes through
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That’s what I’m most concerned about. Brad P even alluded to this. Do I think CLT will be upgraded to high risk? No. I don’t think it’ll go that far. But with these setups, you never know. This could save areas to our north though. Like the Triad to around the western portions of the Triangle. We shall see.


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If we can ramp up the low-level shear ~25-50% vs what the models show right now, we'll have better parameter space than most big outbreaks around here imo. Slower CAD erosion would be something I'd root against if I was south of the Triangle because that if the wedge hangs around even a few hours longer than forecast, that'll greatly increase the shear + tornado threat
 
Sun has been pocking through the clouds here as well. I didn’t expect that today. I don’t know how that translates into tomorrow or if it makes any difference.


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ryan1234 said:
Sun has been pocking through the clouds here as well. I didn’t expect that today. I don’t know how that translates into tomorrow or if it makes any difference.


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I always wondered about small stuff like that, for example getting warmer than the forecast day before a snowstorm. How does it translate?
 
Lickwx said:
I always wondered about small stuff like that, for example getting warmer than the forecast day before a snowstorm. How does it translate?
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FAILURE for snow. Of course we seem to do just fine when it comes to severe weather.


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GSP discussion. As they say, timing is everything, especially for the areas further west
Pre-frontal convective band will likely begin overspreading the NC
mountains circa 12Z Thursday. Buoyancy is forecast to be quite
limited during this time, but there may well be a severe downburst
threat during this time, depending upon the strength of the cold
pool produced in the stronger CAPE environment upstream. A consensus
of model guidance continues to depict weakening of low level forcing
over the mountains as the terrain disrupts low level flow patterns.
However, mid and upper levels will remain strongly forced. If
anything, this scenario may yield more of a broken convective band,
with embedded discrete cellular modes...which is kind of hinted at
in the latest convection-allowing models. Low level shear
parameters, including storm relative helicity will be quite
impressive, so the magnitude of the severe threat will hinge largely
upon the amount of instability that is realized...which will be
largely dictated by timing of convection with respect to the diurnal
heating cycle. Considering the expected timing of convection
sweeping across the western half of the area 12-15Z, and the eastern
half 15-18Z, the eastern third or so of the forecast area is
expected to see the greatest threat of severe storms, as reflected
in the Moderate Risk from the Day 2 SPC Convective Outlook. All
modes of severe weather will be possible, especially in and near the
Moderate Risk area, with a strong tornado or two possible in
association with supercellular storm structures. Again, timing will
be (almost) everything: earlier timing will likely result in a
diminished threat, later timing would likely yield a significant
severe thunderstorm outbreak for our area.
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Not sure if it's been posted but you can use this on Roku, Apple tv or browser. YOu can cycle through cities broadcasts from each state that are live https://localnow.com/
 
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I’m not to concerned north of 85 in upstate sc NE Georgia western nc. But I do think the midlands of sc will have some dangerous tornadoes tomorrow


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GA stuff in this one or the other thread? The 18z hrr makes me think I wont be getting much sleep tonight.

hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_10.png

hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_12.png
 
I don’t know if it’s the way the media is communicating or if people just aren’t understanding what is being said, but there is a lot of freak out concerning “level 4” storms/tornadoes in NC tomorrow. It may be a combination of both.
 
Poimen said:
I don’t know if it’s the way the media is communicating or if people just aren’t understanding what is being said, but there is a lot of freak out concerning “level 4” storms/tornadoes in NC tomorrow. It may be a combination of both.
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What do you mean they aren't understanding?
 
Poimen said:
I don’t know if it’s the way the media is communicating or if people just aren’t understanding what is being said, but there is a lot of freak out concerning “level 4” storms/tornadoes in NC tomorrow. It may be a combination of both.
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level 4 is the new polar vortex or bomb cyclone........its how the media is referring to a Mod risk......
 
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