SPC wording tomorrow is pretty scary
DAMN! That is some scary wording.
SPC wording tomorrow is pretty scary
All the energy in Alabama wasted so we don’t get storms ? I don’t think that’s how this works. No gas tank on this lmao!Hope it isn't this bad tomorrow as it is right now. Maybe all the energy will be wasted today.
Hope it isn't this bad tomorrow as it is right now. Maybe all the energy will be wasted today.
DAMN! That is some scary wording.
SPC wording tomorrow is pretty scary
Yeah I'm surprised by the wording given the weak sauce look of the Hrrr and nam3k
Appears the wedge is trending stronger tomorrow morning on the HRRR, this could help/hurt
Appears the wedge is trending stronger tomorrow morning on the HRRR, this could help/hurt
Tough call for spc. Their wording is ominous and with future updates I could see them going high risk from say Columbia over greenville,sc and along the NC border just based on their wording.
Or the wedge wins and we are low 60s and cloudy with no time to destabalize.
Appears the wedge is trending stronger tomorrow morning on the HRRR, this could help/hurt
Even though it’s on the edge, Union county is now in that purple hatch area and it very worrisome when you have kids in school. As good as it is that the timing is not overnight, it could be very rough for Charlotte metro and east as school is dismissingPretty much the same as the one issued overnight. I don't like how close that purple hatch area is to CLT. This is getting to close for comfort, IMO.
If the wedge wins tomorrow, climo favored areas of the south-central coastal plain of NC are probably screwed.
If the wedge wins tomorrow, climo favored areas of the south-central coastal plain of NC are probably screwed.
Yeah it could mean that the metro gets a double hit tomorrow with the severe weather... first early in the morning as the wedge boundary fires up and then the afternoon as the front comes throughIt’s going to screw us (in a bad way) in this area. Just based of tornado climatology and the fact that the CLT area is basically on the border- these areas have me the most concerned. Basically, draw a line from the beginning of the metro and continue moving it due east and south.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Yeah it could mean that the metro gets a double hit tomorrow with the severe weather... first early in the morning as the wedge boundary fires up and then the afternoon as the front comes through
Think theyll pull the trigger on a high risk over parts of SC/NC? Their wording seems to point that direction.
The Wunderground map has pockets of air nearing 60 in the triad area. Temps are rising higher than short-range models had for us today, 53 here and still going up. The more we warm the less dense the air is the easier it is to erode the CAD tomorrow! BoomChinck in the armor
View attachment 79400
I always wondered about small stuff like that, for example getting warmer than the forecast day before a snowstorm. How does it translate?Sun has been pocking through the clouds here as well. I didn’t expect that today. I don’t know how that translates into tomorrow or if it makes any difference.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I always wondered about small stuff like that, for example getting warmer than the forecast day before a snowstorm. How does it translate?
Pre-frontal convective band will likely begin overspreading the NC
mountains circa 12Z Thursday. Buoyancy is forecast to be quite
limited during this time, but there may well be a severe downburst
threat during this time, depending upon the strength of the cold
pool produced in the stronger CAPE environment upstream. A consensus
of model guidance continues to depict weakening of low level forcing
over the mountains as the terrain disrupts low level flow patterns.
However, mid and upper levels will remain strongly forced. If
anything, this scenario may yield more of a broken convective band,
with embedded discrete cellular modes...which is kind of hinted at
in the latest convection-allowing models. Low level shear
parameters, including storm relative helicity will be quite
impressive, so the magnitude of the severe threat will hinge largely
upon the amount of instability that is realized...which will be
largely dictated by timing of convection with respect to the diurnal
heating cycle. Considering the expected timing of convection
sweeping across the western half of the area 12-15Z, and the eastern
half 15-18Z, the eastern third or so of the forecast area is
expected to see the greatest threat of severe storms, as reflected
in the Moderate Risk from the Day 2 SPC Convective Outlook. All
modes of severe weather will be possible, especially in and near the
Moderate Risk area, with a strong tornado or two possible in
association with supercellular storm structures. Again, timing will
be (almost) everything: earlier timing will likely result in a
diminished threat, later timing would likely yield a significant
severe thunderstorm outbreak for our area.
It seems like this storm is speeding up to me!
??? it pays to pay attention. I was looking a future Hi- RES my bad bro!Huh? The front is still in TX. It is pretty much where it was depicted in modeling...
I don’t know if it’s the way the media is communicating or if people just aren’t understanding what is being said, but there is a lot of freak out concerning “level 4” storms/tornadoes in NC tomorrow. It may be a combination of both.
Looks like you took a nice walk through the neighborhood!
I don’t know if it’s the way the media is communicating or if people just aren’t understanding what is being said, but there is a lot of freak out concerning “level 4” storms/tornadoes in NC tomorrow. It may be a combination of both.