The SPC has expanded the Day 1 5% Tornado risk area to include much of NE Texas and a large swath of Oklahoma, including DFW:
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March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
NoSnowJoe
Member
Glenn Burns post from about an hour ago. Anyone know what model he is talking about?
One of the new high resolution models coming in is a bit concerning and certainly bears watching. It shows the
possibility of multicells to supercells.
I think the major time frame we need to be concerned about the most is 2 am to 8 am Thursday morning. I want you to make sure you have a way to get warnings. Always a chance for cell towers to be damaged or go down.
One of the new high resolution models coming in is a bit concerning and certainly bears watching. It shows the
possibility of multicells to supercells.
I think the major time frame we need to be concerned about the most is 2 am to 8 am Thursday morning. I want you to make sure you have a way to get warnings. Always a chance for cell towers to be damaged or go down.
Maybe the HRRR? Did have some cells in GA
Cary_Snow95
Member
Really hoping we can delay the hail until after 6pm on Thursday in central NC. Models hinting at that happening. I’d prefer my car not get pummeled
Made a little “average of Soundings” (stacked them with the 3km NAM and 12km) notably the 3km has larger low level Hodographs but they overall agree on a uncapped environment supportive of a low tornado threat, and solid hail threat, along with wind, given the dry air aloft/low WBZ, and they overall agree on a large mid level wind feild
Those types of Hodographs are often associated with mini supercells
Those types of Hodographs are often associated with mini supercells
Psalm 148:8
Member
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Sounds like what you are saying is, this severe threat could not be as bead as currently expected due to these factors... correct?
This is awesome! Thank you for making. SPC seemed bullish on the possibility of stronger tornadoes- so my question is... what models are they using use wording like that. Also, what would cause the tornado threat to be higher than what is currently being depicted on the NAM? Seems like this system is really slowing down though, even Brad P's VBLOG alluded to some strong tornadoes and how this system could still slow down. Again, thanks for all your insight. You and @Webberweather53 are great!
The 3km NAM looked more bullish parameter wise tbh but I think honestly a weaker first line that moves out quicker would allow the secondary stuff to be more rough, if the first line is stronger then the left over clouds/high clouds would spoil instability, but looking at overall parameters the first line doesn’t look that scary in our areas but maybe for places further East
It'll be interesting to see what the upcoming model runs show going forward. Things will obviously change but the question is to what degree. I will say- it has been a while since CLT was in a hatched area 3 days out. Things could be worse just to our east, but it won't take much slowing down to pretty much put the metro in ground zero.
Not that we expected anything else but SPC maintains moderate risk
Damn CFSv2 did very well at hinting at something around this time, back on the 8th
Can’t get it to load but the MDT appears to be greatly expanded to the SW of original area
RebelBearLandshark
Member
From new NWS SPC update:
"If these trends are maintained, an upgrade to a High risk could be necessary with the initial Day 1 Convective Outlook at 06z tonight."
"If these trends are maintained, an upgrade to a High risk could be necessary with the initial Day 1 Convective Outlook at 06z tonight."
Jrips2710
Member
Explicitly says an upgrade to high risk may be necessary for tonight’s outlook should trends continue the way they are heading. ?
That's a pretty big shift. Is this indicative of this thing slowing down more?
12z WRFs are definitely more bullish with a round of supercells popping across central AL late tomorrow afternoon. Wind fields for discrete convection are really good, but low level shear is on the low side at that point. Probably gonna be some large hail with that round. Definitely have to watch and see if the low level shear increases sooner than expected.