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March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak

NickyBGuarantee said:
I also never said this wasn’t going to be a big deal. I’m saying that I am skeptical if it will be at this point in time. This is due to my experience living here my whole life. I’ve seen severe weather hyped up just as much as the next guy .. I think it’s always warranted because better safe than sorry but I’m just saying when there has been prefrontal clouds and or precip leading a severe weather event it always seems to take the kick out of the system. We’re obviously still too far out to grind out those type of details right now. I’m speaking simply from a observational perspective. I’m sorry if I ruffled your feathers.
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Nah, I understand what you are saying. I was just trying to get my thoughts across too. But you didn't ruffle my feathers. Lol. It's all good.
 
JHS said:
Sun helps but is not a must. I do not recall much sun on 5-5-89 and that turned out nasty. Feb 6 2020 when Spartanburg got hit had no sun at all. And if a wedge boundary is in the area watch out for sure. That would probably be where a strong tornado would track.
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There was no sun during the day on 5/5/89... in fact I think the daily rainfall record for that date in CLT is still from 1989. It poured buckets all day, then of course that evening was when things just blew up
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looks like GFS has less cape at 18z but then I saw it’s because it keeps backing the line up (which uses the instability)
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For us I'm still not sure if we try to go prefrontal trough passage earlier in the day then a forced line (scattered) along the front or if it is all one line. Regardless the clearer threat right now is to our SW and with a potential residual tmb in place it's not looking good to me
 
Chazwin said:
There was no sun during the day on 5/5/89... in fact I think the daily rainfall record for that date in CLT is still from 1989. It poured buckets all day, then of course that evening was when things just blew up
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This is actually really surprising to me. I would of figured we would of had some sun. Given how powerful and long tracked those tornadoes were. Just goes to show it's not a necessity. What was the high and DP for that day?
 
These cells late Wednesday would be concerning given the better forcing is to the west and these will likely have their own atmos to work withnam3km_ref_uv10m_seus_60 (1).png
 
ryan1234 said:
This is actually really surprising to me. I would of figured we would of had some sun. Given how powerful and long tracked those tornadoes were. Just goes to show it's not a necessity. What was the high and DP for that day?
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The high was 74 and there was over 3 inches of rain at KCLT so I’m sure the highest dewpoint got into the 70s. Also there was a peak wind gust of 47mph at the airport that evening which means there was some straight line winds as well because the closest any tornadoes came to the airport was Lincoln county.
 
The STP is pretty ominous for CLT metro on the NAM. Of course it is the NAM but it's worth mentioning again.
 
SD said:
It's interesting the last couple of years we have gotten these massive high shear numbers but we've tilted/ripped off the updrafts quite a bit. There is still a decent amount of directional shear in these soundings
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Yeah that’s a difference, I imagine once the evening LLJ picked up the tor threat could go up but those early storms could take advantage of those low level lapse rates
 
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