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March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak

Jeeeez NAMpocalypse. Central MS 18z Wed
2021031506_NAM_060_33.75,-89.31_severe_ml.png
 
Here's some excerpts from this morning's SPC products
With time, as moisture streams northward from the Gulf of Mexico
beneath steepening lapse rates, modest heating will push
surface-based CAPE into the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range with a broad
warm sector stretching from the AR/LA vicinity eastward to the
southern Appalachians. Convection is forecast to increase in
response to the destabilization, as persistent UVV occurs not only
in the vicinity of the cold and warm fronts, but also more broadly
within the general warm-advection regime.

Southerly low-level flow, veering and increasing to around 50 kt
from the west/southwest at mid levels will provide shear favorable
for supercells. Additionally, ample low-level shear is expected to
evolve through the day -- particularly near the aforementioned warm
front which should drift northward across Arkansas and align
west-northwest to east-southeast from far southern MO to central GA
by early evening. As such, tornado risk may be maximized near this
boundary -- across the AR area during the day, and then later
increasing eastward across AL and perhaps into GA as well, as
low-level flow increases into the evening/overnight.

In addition to tornado potential -- including the risk for a couple
of significant tornadoes across a broad area represented by the
ENH/30% risk area, large hail and damaging winds will also occur in
some areas. Risk will continue through the overnight hours,
tapering from west to east across the lower Mississippi Valley but
continuing across the central Gulf Coast states and into the
southern Appalachians through 18/12z.
Click to expand...
In the mean time, storms -- and associated severe potential -- which
should be ongoing at the start of Day 4 (Thursday) will spread east
of the Appalachians, possibly affecting areas as far north as
southern Virginia and as far south as northern Florida. Timing
differences exist between the GFS and ECMWF, with the slower ECMWF
more favorable for severe weather given the greater degree for
afternoon heating/destabilization across the Carolinas vicinity
ahead of the front, and associated convective band. In any case, a
moist and favorably sheared environment is expected, which should
prove supportive for appreciable severe potential.
Click to expand...
 
Hoping the CAD will prevent anything severe here and the models are overdoing it in other areas. Only a level 1 threat here, but AL and AK really look to be ground zero at this moment.
 
Ehhhh kind of iffy on the severe weather threat ... conditions looks ominous but with lack of instability and lack of sun .. will most likely limit the severe weather threat a lot as it usually does around here
 
For my area north of 85 in upstate sc. it will come down to timing. If the Euro right we could be rocking and rolling 1-3pm with severe weather. Hopefully it moves through 7-10am and we avoid the worse of it. Another thing I’m watching for is where the wedge sets up the boundary that separates cool 50s from unstable 60s could help spawn a Tornado or two. Something to watch for.


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NAM looks more cutoff with the H5 bowling ball which means forcing won’t be as displaced, along with a slighty further north wedge front already
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Ehhhh kind of iffy on the severe weather threat ... conditions looks ominous but with lack of instability and lack of sun .. will most likely limit the severe weather threat a lot as it usually does around here
Click to expand...

Yeah, we seem to need some sun most of the time to give it some juice for severe storms around here.
 
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