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March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak

Here’s a complicated map, I’ll break it down
Yellow = lower risk of severe and/or more uncertainty
Orange = medium risk
Red is a higher risk (not a high risk lmao I’m not the SPC) but the area that has the highest chance of bigger severe
First off one question mark I have is GA/eastern AL, it’s possible a QLCS with a wind/tornado threat could evolve but it’s hard to say given we’re not in reliable meso model range for those areas just yet, I also have a dashed line for NC/upstate because in-situ CAD is possible
Overall I’m just basing this off Synoptics and timing, but this should change as we get more into mesoscale detail F2B4BD78-99FA-4B94-B18F-EA1451951DE2.jpeg
 
That was about to get ugly with a north moving warm front, NAM looks like the slower euro 8A05AF34-812D-4B78-AD24-92828F88EDF0.png902C9823-E652-4828-83CA-511DD5A2891C.png527D3117-52A0-400F-BF80-73B12D47ED42.png
 
And now the icon looks just like the euro, it completely aligns forcing/thermodynamics/kinematics and brings storms in peak heating D10AD141-37B8-4FBD-B8D9-DF478ECEE1C1.png061449D8-BFD9-42DD-88D4-394FAAA8CC37.png72A0BF57-8A8B-40F9-B5A4-8FDCB2EBED8C.png
 
gawxnative said:
I cannot remember which event, but I recall that while SFC Observations showed NE winds with the Wedge, there were observations made at both the Tops Of Stone Mountain (850 ft) and Mount Currahee (Toccoa, 1000 ft) from the SE while upper levels were SW with the jet. Temps and DP were some 10-15 degrees higher also The "ft" I listed is height above surrounding terrain . It shows how shallow wedges are, and the degree of shear. This could very well explain why we sometimes get cells that rapidly turn violent when running into the retreating wedges in NE GA. Also, just got me to thinking... if parcels from just above the surface are heated, while the true "surface" does not, what impact would those rising "near surface" parcels have toward surface based CAPE, etc.
Click to expand...
With a cool layer of air on the surface, the result is elevated convection. Inflow from storms won't be from the surface but rather, from elevated air above the cold air. The result? Usually elevated storms pose the threat of hail and perhaps damaging winds if the storm is rigorous enough. Usually no tor threat as the storm is elevated, there isn't gonna be a meso close enough to the ground to produce.

On the topic of its effects on SBCAPE, I would say to disregard SBCAPE entirely in a setup where storms are elevated/ an inversion is in place. If a storm isn't drawing air from the surface, then using a CAPE measure that starts at the surface is not going to provide accurate insight on storm potential. MUCAPE is the way to go for elevated convection.
 
All models tonight are trending towards more severe wx for areas East, Including the v16, still looks the same for areas back SW
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
At this moment what is the data telling you that we have to look out for? Say for areas like Charlotte Raleigh and west and East. What type of structures are we looking at and main threats? Obviously it’ll change but just curious. Also any chance of any early precip or cloud cover to ruin severe?
Click to expand...
Probably I-40 south, I’d go with linear right now (as usual) and yeah there could be lots of cloud cover, and it depends on how far south the warm frontal band is, the further south, the more in-situ CAD there is
 
Justin Buchinsky said:
With a cool layer of air on the surface, the result is elevated convection. Inflow from storms won't be from the surface but rather, from elevated air above the cold air. The result? Usually elevated storms pose the threat of hail and perhaps damaging winds if the storm is rigorous enough. Usually no tor threat as the storm is elevated, there isn't gonna be a meso close enough to the ground to produce.

On the topic of its effects on SBCAPE, I would say to disregard SBCAPE entirely in a setup where storms are elevated/ an inversion is in place. If a storm isn't drawing air from the surface, then using a CAPE measure that starts at the surface is not going to provide accurate insight on storm potential. MUCAPE is the way to go for elevated convection.
Click to expand...
Yes but my question is with the "wedge layer" so shallow and close to the ground (500- 1000 ft) as it rose with heating would it begin to "mix/pull" the true at the surface parcels with it.
 
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