B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Yeah, that is one of those times you could tell something was going to happen by the way it felt outside.
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March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
Yeah, that is one of those times you could tell something was going to happen by the way it felt outside.
LickWx
Member
How often is that analog used ? I feel like I’ve seen it at least a few times before .
This setup has the potential to rival that synoptically but mesoscale issues needs to be figured out
Windergawx
Member
It's not having so many in one spot in the case of a direct impact..
One from ENC and others from that axis of cape in the upstate of SC (that same axis goes over us around CLT at 21z but I don’t have access to that time on pivotal to get soundings)
mydoortotheworld
Member
Lots of potential for this system, but do we know of any bust factors? Will crapvection suppress potential?
Lol this time we get it during the mid/late afternoon with peak heating (I’m going with the slower solutions given the GFS is slowing down)
Possibly, with a double barrel jet means lots of forcing for ascent, but one thing I’m seeing that is truly concerning is that models show good surface insolation, with lapse rates up to 7C in some spots, most of these setups lack steep low level lapse rates
SimeonNC
Member
I hope CAD saves NC from the worst of the severe weather, sorry @Myfrotho704_ but I don't want an April 2011 over here lol.
Jessy89
Member
Yeah I agree I’m hoping upstate sc NE Ga and NC dodges the worse of it. I’ll say I am interested in severe weather but interested and liking it is two different things. I dislike it but I’m very much interested.
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Problems 
This looks worrisome.
GFS gonna slow down some more
The more we slow down however higher chance of some CAD
We’re a few steps away from our severe weather event ending in sleet or flurry showers ... wow NC would
Yeah. but CLT is a borderline when it comes to wedges regardless. This is somewhat concerning given our history of wedge tornadoes. Something tells me this will probably end up being our first legit storm threat of spring. I also have this eerie feeling that the wedge won't save us this go around.
Geez. For our area the wedge boundary/tmb is going be problematic especially as we likely attempt to really back sfc winds
gawxnative
Member
I cannot remember which event, but I recall that while SFC Observations showed NE winds with the Wedge, there were observations made at both the Tops Of Stone Mountain (850 ft) and Mount Currahee (Toccoa, 1000 ft) from the SE while upper levels were SW with the jet. Temps and DP were some 10-15 degrees higher also The "ft" I listed is height above surrounding terrain . It shows how shallow wedges are, and the degree of shear. This could very well explain why we sometimes get cells that rapidly turn violent when running into the retreating wedges in NE GA. Also, just got me to thinking... if parcels from just above the surface are heated, while the true "surface" does not, what impact would those rising "near surface" parcels have toward surface based CAPE, etc.
Nws bmx already at enhanced
gawxnative
Member
That closely matches what SPC has at 30% on Day 4.