March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak

[Myfrotho704_]

that's a pretty insane area wide/averaged out sounding from S MS/AL and eastern LA, overall low level shear isn’t to impressive but thermodynamics are actually pretty solid

heres one for those same areas around 00z....

 

[Myfrotho704_]

here's one for the carolinas

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro looks more like the UKMET with a slower system and a solution that favors more severe wx in the Carolinas vs the GFS, still looks ominous for MS/AL/LA and even into GA with the warm front

 

[HSVweather]

 

[Webberweather53]

I definitely think the title of this thread should change from possible severe wx to outbreak.

Day 4-5 regional SPC outlooks via pivotalweather

 

[HSVweather]

 

[Storm5]

I definitely think the title of this thread should change from possible severe wx to outbreak.

Day 4-5 regional SPC outlooks via pivotalweather

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Done


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[Webberweather53]

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That’s insane you get a PDS TOR with an area averaged sounding over the entire state of MS. Oof

 

[Webberweather53]

Not too often you see a 45% tor on CIPS analog guidance.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Still looking at guidance the UK/Euro are slower and more aggressive while the GFS/v16 aren’t, I wonder who wins

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol hour 84 nampocalypse

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I’m Thinking the SPC will probably go 30% in those areas tonight to our SW and 15% NC-south, that stuff to our SW looks bad, if there one thing I notice tho is that low level shear isn’t insane with this setup

Lol I’m surprised that worked out

 

[Myfrotho704_]

NAM looks more like the euro/UK at H5

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Geez the NAM went ballistic in MS/AL/TN it was already eroding any wedge there was that was left, which is interesting given the NAM is aggressive with wudges

 

[Jrips2710]

I’m just east of Birmingham all week visiting family. Already thinking they won’t have school around here on Wednesday.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

ICON now looks like euro/UK from last night and is the most aggressive with a wedge front/boundary across NC, but warmed up vs 06z

 

[Zander98al]

Ill be in pigeon forge tennessee on my honeymoon during this ?. For the first legit severe outbreak chance in central alabama

 

[Brick Tamland]

WRAL mentioned the possibility of severe storms here for Thursday, so jumped on the board to see folks here were already on it. Guess we'll see if the trend continues from last year with the majority of storms staying south and east of Wake.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

I’m just east of Birmingham all week visiting family. Already thinking they won’t have school around here on Wednesday.

Why wouldn't they have school. I imagine for a lot of kids it would be safer to be at school.

 

[tennessee storm]

Why wouldn't they have school. I imagine for a lot of kids it would be safer to be at school.

yeah they have cancelled school here number time because of severe outbreaks, or even let out early. not say you are wrong, because alot times its pretty safe. but i also have seen schools leveled to the ground here before