Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Plenty of spread/differences continue between the GFS and ECMWF for
the medium-range period -- even as early as Days 4-5. While the
broad/overall picture remains fairly clear that a notable increase
in severe threat will occur perhaps as early as late Tuesday
afternoon (Day 4) near a southern Plains dryline, and then
continuing Day 5/Wednesday (lower Mississippi and possibly the lower
Ohio Valleys east across the central Gulf Coast states/Mid South),
and potentially Day 6/Thursday (southern Appalachians/Carolinas).
The differences amongst the models are centered around evolution of
the next upper system moving out of the western U.S. at the start of
the period. The ECMWF depicts a closed low -- strengthening with
time as it ejects, and thus the feature advances more slowly than
the GFS, which depicts a more progressive, open wave. This has
substantial implications for timing/location of surface features
through the first few days of the period -- with these differences
becoming great enough by Day 6 that no meaningful assessment of
areas of possible risk can be confidently highlighted.
With the ECMWF's pattern evolution very similar to the EC's ensemble
mean, and also similar to the UKMET solution, will lean a bit toward
a slower/less progressive evolution and thus a slightly more
westward forecast. Day 4 (Tuesday), some conditional risk for
mainly hail may exist as far west as a northwestern Texas/western
Oklahoma dryline during the early evening, with some hail risk
spreading across parts of Oklahoma and North Texas overnight.
However, with this risk more conditional, will opt not to include a
risk area for Tuesday at this time.
By Day 5/Wednesday, a more substantially unstable environment,
encompassing a large area, is likely, as a moist Gulf airmass
streams northward, beneath rather steep lapse rates advecting
eastward. With an eastward moving surface cyclone and attendant
warm and cold fronts focusing ascent, and the likelihood for broad
warm advection/QG ascent within the expanding warm sector, scattered
severe storms appear likely even given timing/location differences
of surface features amongst the models. While a more concentrated
area or areas of severe weather may evolve Wednesday, those details
-- and any associated outlook highlights -- will require discernment
in subsequent outlooks nearer the event. For now, a large/broad 15%
risk area will be introduced, representing a large envelope of
all-hazards severe potential.
Day 6, model differences become substantial enough that -- while
severe weather risk may continue, no areas will be highlighted due
to the predictability concerns.
..Goss.. 03/13/2021