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March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak

Jeeeez NAMpocalypse. Central MS 18z Wed
2021031506_NAM_060_33.75,-89.31_severe_ml.png
 
Here's some excerpts from this morning's SPC products
With time, as moisture streams northward from the Gulf of Mexico
beneath steepening lapse rates, modest heating will push
surface-based CAPE into the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range with a broad
warm sector stretching from the AR/LA vicinity eastward to the
southern Appalachians. Convection is forecast to increase in
response to the destabilization, as persistent UVV occurs not only
in the vicinity of the cold and warm fronts, but also more broadly
within the general warm-advection regime.

Southerly low-level flow, veering and increasing to around 50 kt
from the west/southwest at mid levels will provide shear favorable
for supercells. Additionally, ample low-level shear is expected to
evolve through the day -- particularly near the aforementioned warm
front which should drift northward across Arkansas and align
west-northwest to east-southeast from far southern MO to central GA
by early evening. As such, tornado risk may be maximized near this
boundary -- across the AR area during the day, and then later
increasing eastward across AL and perhaps into GA as well, as
low-level flow increases into the evening/overnight.

In addition to tornado potential -- including the risk for a couple
of significant tornadoes across a broad area represented by the
ENH/30% risk area, large hail and damaging winds will also occur in
some areas. Risk will continue through the overnight hours,
tapering from west to east across the lower Mississippi Valley but
continuing across the central Gulf Coast states and into the
southern Appalachians through 18/12z.
Click to expand...
In the mean time, storms -- and associated severe potential -- which
should be ongoing at the start of Day 4 (Thursday) will spread east
of the Appalachians, possibly affecting areas as far north as
southern Virginia and as far south as northern Florida. Timing
differences exist between the GFS and ECMWF, with the slower ECMWF
more favorable for severe weather given the greater degree for
afternoon heating/destabilization across the Carolinas vicinity
ahead of the front, and associated convective band. In any case, a
moist and favorably sheared environment is expected, which should
prove supportive for appreciable severe potential.
Click to expand...
 
Hoping the CAD will prevent anything severe here and the models are overdoing it in other areas. Only a level 1 threat here, but AL and AK really look to be ground zero at this moment.
 
Ehhhh kind of iffy on the severe weather threat ... conditions looks ominous but with lack of instability and lack of sun .. will most likely limit the severe weather threat a lot as it usually does around here
 
For my area north of 85 in upstate sc. it will come down to timing. If the Euro right we could be rocking and rolling 1-3pm with severe weather. Hopefully it moves through 7-10am and we avoid the worse of it. Another thing I’m watching for is where the wedge sets up the boundary that separates cool 50s from unstable 60s could help spawn a Tornado or two. Something to watch for.


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NAM looks more cutoff with the H5 bowling ball which means forcing won’t be as displaced, along with a slighty further north wedge front already
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Ehhhh kind of iffy on the severe weather threat ... conditions looks ominous but with lack of instability and lack of sun .. will most likely limit the severe weather threat a lot as it usually does around here
Click to expand...

Yeah, we seem to need some sun most of the time to give it some juice for severe storms around here.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I just think there’s too much cloudiness and rain before this period for there to be anything substantially widespread for the area
Click to expand...

With all that energy out there, it won't take much other than peaks of sun here and there. Which, is possible given how much this thing has slowed down.
 
Looks like maybe 2 rounds on the NAM with the 2nd one looking rather dangerous east of the mountains in NC and SC. That 2nd round reminds me of 5-5-1989.

wxbrad.com

The Carolina Tornado Outbreak of May 5th, 1989 - @wxbrad Blog

Facebook0TwitterLinkedin0Pinterest0Reddit0MoreEmail0Yesterday was the 25th anniversary of the worst tornado outbreak to affect the western Carolinas since 1950. This outbreak had the largest number of violent tornadoes to strike the area. There were 3 EF-4 tornadoes on this date. For perspective...
wxbrad.com
 
JHS said:
Looks like maybe 2 rounds on the NAM with the 2nd one looking rather dangerous east of the mountains in NC and SC. That 2nd round reminds me of 5-5-1989.

wxbrad.com

The Carolina Tornado Outbreak of May 5th, 1989 - @wxbrad Blog

Facebook0TwitterLinkedin0Pinterest0Reddit0MoreEmail0Yesterday was the 25th anniversary of the worst tornado outbreak to affect the western Carolinas since 1950. This outbreak had the largest number of violent tornadoes to strike the area. There were 3 EF-4 tornadoes on this date. For perspective...
wxbrad.com
Click to expand...

I agree, that second round looks very interesting. The final plume of moisture more closely tied to the highest shear.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I just think there’s too much cloudiness and rain before this period for there to be anything substantially widespread for the area
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The Reedy Creek tornado hit Charlotte well after midnight and obviously there was no sun. That was a strong EF2 tornado too. This will be hitting during peak heating as well as a retreating wedge boundary= trouble.
 
ryan1234 said:
The Reedy Creek tornado hit Charlotte well after midnight and obviously there was no sun. This will be hitting during peak heating as well as a retreating wedge boundary= trouble.
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Sun helps but is not a must. I do not recall much sun on 5-5-89 and that turned out nasty. Feb 6 2020 when Spartanburg got hit had no sun at all. And if a wedge boundary is in the area watch out for sure. That would probably be where a strong tornado would track.
 
ryan1234 said:
With all that energy out there, it won't take much other than peaks of sun here and there. Which, is possible given how much this thing has slowed down.
Click to expand...
Listen I get it and I understand you don’t need the sun for that severe weather .. but in 2011 we got it big time .. almost every severe threat has needed a sunny day to be note worthy .. every one that is cloudy or rainy leading up usually doesn’t come through as widespread.. I guess I’m a weenie for not wanting a tornado outbreak ???‍♂️
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Listen I get it and I understand you don’t need the sun for that severe weather .. but in 2011 we got it big time .. almost every severe threat has needed a sunny day to be note worthy .. every one that is cloudy or rainy leading up usually doesn’t come through as widespread.. I guess I’m a weenie for not wanting a tornado outbreak ???‍♂️
Click to expand...

I never said I wanted a tornado outbreak. I was responding to your threat that suggested this wasn't going to be a big deal. I was only backing up my data with facts.
 
SD said:
Geez that icon and gfs run didn't look good for most of the region
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Looks like GFS has less cape at 18z but then I saw it’s because it keeps backing the line up (which uses the instability)
 
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ryan1234 said:
I never said I wanted a tornado outbreak. I was responding to your threat that suggested this wasn't going to be a big deal. I was only backing up my data with facts.
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I also never said this wasn’t going to be a big deal. I’m saying that I am skeptical if it will be at this point in time. This is due to my experience living here my whole life. I’ve seen severe weather hyped up just as much as the next guy .. I think it’s always warranted because better safe than sorry but I’m just saying when there has been prefrontal clouds and or precip leading a severe weather event it always seems to take the kick out of the system. We’re obviously still too far out to grind out those type of details right now. I’m speaking simply from a observational perspective. I’m sorry if I ruffled your feathers.
 
I like where I sit north of 85 corridor with that line of storms coming 7am or so. Hopefully we avoid the worse of the severe threat. But from I77 corridor east I think this line could strengthen and get nasty. With damaging winds and isolated tornados. Now the area that I’ll focus on in the upstate of sc. is where that wedge set up. Where you get the boundary that separates 50s and 60s there may just be enough twisting to spin up a brief isolated tornado.
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