• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak

mydoortotheworld said:
Hard to overstate how insane 4.27 was. It’s once-in-a-generation for a reason, similar to the superstorm of ‘93.
Click to expand...
That was just an insane combination of "Wintertime" dynamic with "summer" dewpoints, so everything went off the charts. . To me the other thing was the combination of concentration of Tornado tracks with their also striking so many population centers. The April 3-4, 1974 was "stronger and more violent," but stayed mostly away from major populations with stronger storms. The exceptions were Loiusville KY, and Huntsville, AL. metro areas
 
gawxnative said:
That was just an insane combination of "Wintertime" dynamic with "summer" dewpoints, so everything went off the charts. . To me the other thing was the combination of concentration of Tornado tracks with their also striking so many population centers. The April 3-4, 1974 was "stronger and more violent," but stayed mostly away from major populations with stronger storms. The exceptions were Loiusville KY, and Huntsville, AL. metro areas
Click to expand...
Huntsville got hit both times
 
gawxnative said:
That was just an insane combination of "Wintertime" dynamic with "summer" dewpoints, so everything went off the charts. . To me the other thing was the combination of concentration of Tornado tracks with their also striking so many population centers. The April 3-4, 1974 was "stronger and more violent," but stayed mostly away from major populations with stronger storms. The exceptions were Loiusville KY, and Huntsville, AL. metro areas
Click to expand...
Don't forget about the Dayton, OH area. Xenia got hit pretty hard with the 74 outbreak.
 
mydoortotheworld said:
Would like to have seen the radar for that event. Images from 4.27 remain imprinted in my brain forever.
Click to expand...

Speaking as a witness to the Guin storm in 74 from my parents front porch and as person in the 4/2711 event, I can tell it is totally out of respect of these events I watch all your posts and I pray this one is total hype. The smells and the sounds are forever imprinted in your mind.
 
Wednesday gives me vibes where there could squeeze out a couple strong tornadoes given the good directional shear, but it looks mostly uncapped and initiation happens around 18z which could mean grunge later on, however as the LLJ picks up in the evening/night, embedded supercell structures could have a increased tor threat
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
Gotta throw this out there... convection, boundaries.. etc... from Monday evening and Tuesday will all determine what happens with the big Wednesday system. Definitely some variables to consider...
Click to expand...

What's interesting to me is that what happens Wednesday is already determined as are the convection/boundaries of Mon evening/Tue. But with the models not smart enough to know any of this, Mon eve-Wed all remain a mystery to us and thus the uncertainty generates forecasting discussion.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
What's interesting to me is that what happens Wednesday is already determined as are the convection/boundaries of Mon evening/Tue. But with the models not smart enough to know any of this, Mon eve-Wed all remain a mystery to us and thus the uncertainty generates forecasting discussion.
Click to expand...
You must smoke weed hahaha you always making forecasting so deep lol all this predetermined stuff ?
 
Last edited:
SD said:
Man I just can't get past the thought of a completely free warm sector getting filled with more shallow convection and cutting back on overall severe outbreak potential. Maybe I'm just mentality looking for ways to diminish the overall threat
Click to expand...

The interesting part is on both similar 500mb analogs, warm sector contamination was an issue to an extent.
 
Justin Buchinsky said:
With a cool layer of air on the surface, the result is elevated convection. Inflow from storms won't be from the surface but rather, from elevated air above the cold air. The result? Usually elevated storms pose the threat of hail and perhaps damaging winds if the storm is rigorous enough. Usually no tor threat as the storm is elevated, there isn't gonna be a meso close enough to the ground to produce.

On the topic of its effects on SBCAPE, I would say to disregard SBCAPE entirely in a setup where storms are elevated/ an inversion is in place. If a storm isn't drawing air from the surface, then using a CAPE measure that starts at the surface is not going to provide accurate insight on storm potential. MUCAPE is the way to go for elevated convection.
Click to expand...
Good to see you on here Justin, I have been suspended on twitter for the longest time and I still don’t know why, (that’s why I’ve been gone). Hope everything is good over that way!
 
Would be pretty surprised if the SPC doesn’t go moderate in the new Day 2 outlook coming out here in about 90 minutes. Everything I’ve seen today paints an ominous picture for portions of MS/AL and surrounding areas as well. Still lots of details to be ironed out though.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top