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March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
I just think there’s too much cloudiness and rain before this period for there to be anything substantially widespread for the area
With all that energy out there, it won't take much other than peaks of sun here and there. Which, is possible given how much this thing has slowed down.
JHS
Member
About 30 miles east of me at that time.
Lol sun is cool and all but when you have a 50kt+ low level jet, you can advect Θ-e rather easy enough for HSLC, I’m more interested to the amount of forcing that may get out to early 
JHS
Member
Looks like maybe 2 rounds on the NAM with the 2nd one looking rather dangerous east of the mountains in NC and SC. That 2nd round reminds me of 5-5-1989.
The Carolina Tornado Outbreak of May 5th, 1989 - @wxbrad Blog
Facebook0TwitterLinkedin0Pinterest0Reddit0MoreEmail0Yesterday was the 25th anniversary of the worst tornado outbreak to affect the western Carolinas since 1950. This outbreak had the largest number of violent tornadoes to strike the area. There were 3 EF-4 tornadoes on this date. For perspective...
wxbrad.com
georgia_fan22
Member
Looks like maybe 2 rounds on the NAM with the 2nd one looking rather dangerous east of the mountains in NC and SC. That 2nd round reminds me of 5-5-1989.
The Carolina Tornado Outbreak of May 5th, 1989 - @wxbrad Blog
Facebook0TwitterLinkedin0Pinterest0Reddit0MoreEmail0Yesterday was the 25th anniversary of the worst tornado outbreak to affect the western Carolinas since 1950. This outbreak had the largest number of violent tornadoes to strike the area. There were 3 EF-4 tornadoes on this date. For perspective...wxbrad.com
I agree, that second round looks very interesting. The final plume of moisture more closely tied to the highest shear.
The Reedy Creek tornado hit Charlotte well after midnight and obviously there was no sun. That was a strong EF2 tornado too. This will be hitting during peak heating as well as a retreating wedge boundary= trouble.
I spy the wedge front 
JHS
Member
Sun helps but is not a must. I do not recall much sun on 5-5-89 and that turned out nasty. Feb 6 2020 when Spartanburg got hit had no sun at all. And if a wedge boundary is in the area watch out for sure. That would probably be where a strong tornado would track.
Icon shows a line around 21z Thursday 
Listen I get it and I understand you don’t need the sun for that severe weather .. but in 2011 we got it big time .. almost every severe threat has needed a sunny day to be note worthy .. every one that is cloudy or rainy leading up usually doesn’t come through as widespread.. I guess I’m a weenie for not wanting a tornado outbreak ???
I think it’s to early to say that it’ll be cloudy or sunny/breaks of sun anyways in the pre frontal warm sector
Listen I get it and I understand you don’t need the sun for that severe weather .. but in 2011 we got it big time .. almost every severe threat has needed a sunny day to be note worthy .. every one that is cloudy or rainy leading up usually doesn’t come through as widespread.. I guess I’m a weenie for not wanting a tornado outbreak ???
I never said I wanted a tornado outbreak. I was responding to your threat that suggested this wasn't going to be a big deal. I was only backing up my data with facts.
Geez that icon and gfs run didn't look good for most of the region
I also never said this wasn’t going to be a big deal. I’m saying that I am skeptical if it will be at this point in time. This is due to my experience living here my whole life. I’ve seen severe weather hyped up just as much as the next guy .. I think it’s always warranted because better safe than sorry but I’m just saying when there has been prefrontal clouds and or precip leading a severe weather event it always seems to take the kick out of the system. We’re obviously still too far out to grind out those type of details right now. I’m speaking simply from a observational perspective. I’m sorry if I ruffled your feathers.
Trend to amplification only happens with severe weather nowadays ?
Jessy89
Member
I like where I sit north of 85 corridor with that line of storms coming 7am or so. Hopefully we avoid the worse of the severe threat. But from I77 corridor east I think this line could strengthen and get nasty. With damaging winds and isolated tornados. Now the area that I’ll focus on in the upstate of sc. is where that wedge set up. Where you get the boundary that separates 50s and 60s there may just be enough twisting to spin up a brief isolated tornado.
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