The SPC has expanded the Day 1 5% Tornado risk area to include much of NE Texas and a large swath of Oklahoma, including DFW:
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March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
NoSnowJoe
Member
Glenn Burns post from about an hour ago. Anyone know what model he is talking about?
One of the new high resolution models coming in is a bit concerning and certainly bears watching. It shows the
possibility of multicells to supercells.
I think the major time frame we need to be concerned about the most is 2 am to 8 am Thursday morning. I want you to make sure you have a way to get warnings. Always a chance for cell towers to be damaged or go down.
One of the new high resolution models coming in is a bit concerning and certainly bears watching. It shows the
possibility of multicells to supercells.
I think the major time frame we need to be concerned about the most is 2 am to 8 am Thursday morning. I want you to make sure you have a way to get warnings. Always a chance for cell towers to be damaged or go down.
Maybe the HRRR? Did have some cells in GA
Cary_Snow95
Member
Really hoping we can delay the hail until after 6pm on Thursday in central NC. Models hinting at that happening. I’d prefer my car not get pummeled
Made a little “average of Soundings” (stacked them with the 3km NAM and 12km) notably the 3km has larger low level Hodographs but they overall agree on a uncapped environment supportive of a low tornado threat, and solid hail threat, along with wind, given the dry air aloft/low WBZ, and they overall agree on a large mid level wind feild
Those types of Hodographs are often associated with mini supercells
Those types of Hodographs are often associated with mini supercells
Psalm 148:8
Member
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Sounds like what you are saying is, this severe threat could not be as bead as currently expected due to these factors... correct?
This is awesome! Thank you for making. SPC seemed bullish on the possibility of stronger tornadoes- so my question is... what models are they using use wording like that. Also, what would cause the tornado threat to be higher than what is currently being depicted on the NAM? Seems like this system is really slowing down though, even Brad P's VBLOG alluded to some strong tornadoes and how this system could still slow down. Again, thanks for all your insight. You and @Webberweather53 are great!
The 3km NAM looked more bullish parameter wise tbh but I think honestly a weaker first line that moves out quicker would allow the secondary stuff to be more rough, if the first line is stronger then the left over clouds/high clouds would spoil instability, but looking at overall parameters the first line doesn’t look that scary in our areas but maybe for places further East
It'll be interesting to see what the upcoming model runs show going forward. Things will obviously change but the question is to what degree. I will say- it has been a while since CLT was in a hatched area 3 days out. Things could be worse just to our east, but it won't take much slowing down to pretty much put the metro in ground zero.
Not that we expected anything else but SPC maintains moderate risk
Damn CFSv2 did very well at hinting at something around this time, back on the 8th
Can’t get it to load but the MDT appears to be greatly expanded to the SW of original area
RebelBearLandshark
Member
From new NWS SPC update:
"If these trends are maintained, an upgrade to a High risk could be necessary with the initial Day 1 Convective Outlook at 06z tonight."
"If these trends are maintained, an upgrade to a High risk could be necessary with the initial Day 1 Convective Outlook at 06z tonight."
Jrips2710
Member
Explicitly says an upgrade to high risk may be necessary for tonight’s outlook should trends continue the way they are heading. ?
That's a pretty big shift. Is this indicative of this thing slowing down more?
12z WRFs are definitely more bullish with a round of supercells popping across central AL late tomorrow afternoon. Wind fields for discrete convection are really good, but low level shear is on the low side at that point. Probably gonna be some large hail with that round. Definitely have to watch and see if the low level shear increases sooner than expected.
Enhanced area was also slightly expanded
Jrips2710
Member
I think you are also going to have to watch the CSG-MCN and South and SW area for warm front clearing type cells tomorrow as well. I have been noticing models becoming more and more impressed with convection before the "main" event gets here.
Chris Justus showed a model with main line passing through the upstate 1-2pm or so, then Brad P showed one with more like 10am-noon
mydoortotheworld
Member
Crazier this gets, the more I'm happy ATL will somehow get spared the worst
Snowflowxxl
Member
I wouldn’t talk in absolutes. While that is usually the case ATL had a EF2 rip right through the city in 2008 and was only under a “MARGINAL” risk. Anything can happen even though we get spared far more than not.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Plenty of times the last few years I have had worse storms here when we weren't even in a watch compared to when we were.
Brad P kinda kept that window open though, suggesting it could slow down. I guess their inhouse modeling is suggesting that. Really not liking these trends. Getting that eerie feeling about Thursday now. And even more so for tomorrow.
3 real areas to watch tomorrow, made some area averages soundings 
First area averaged sounding for area 3., is right along the warm front/south of it, overall low level shear isn’t scary high but it’s definitely enough, not much capping here So this could easily grunge, especially with meh 3km speed shear, and some little hint of vbv, however given the backed low level flow and impressive low level instability, a few tornadoes (strong possible) is possible given the low level backed flow along the boundary, along with damaging winds and marginally severe hail, if I was in C/S GA I’d watch for a rogue cell as well
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Area-avg sounding for area 1., overall this area is closest to the forcing and lacks any capping inversion, towards late afternoon/into the night things could grunge/collide, however LLLRs are pretty good, and there's some solidly backed flow (again low level shear isn’t incredibly strong), once again this argues for a tornado threat with a few strong ones with any discreet/semi-discreet supercells
One thing that jumps out vs other areas is the hail threat for these areas, MLLRs are over 7.5, mid level and upper level winds are favorable for very large hail, can kinda see the straightness of the Hodograph past 1km through 8km (this effectively ventilates supercells as well to give more classic structures), also a damaging wind threat should evolve especially as storms form into a QLCS
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area avg sounding for area 2, the most interesting in my opinion, you can see the EML in this one one quite well along with a mid level capping inversion, plenty of low level instability, solid low level shear, backed flow, but imo this area has potential to harbor a supercell/few supercells that could find there own open environment Given the EML and produce some tornadoes (some strong/violent ones)
First area averaged sounding for area 3., is right along the warm front/south of it, overall low level shear isn’t scary high but it’s definitely enough, not much capping here So this could easily grunge, especially with meh 3km speed shear, and some little hint of vbv, however given the backed low level flow and impressive low level instability, a few tornadoes (strong possible) is possible given the low level backed flow along the boundary, along with damaging winds and marginally severe hail, if I was in C/S GA I’d watch for a rogue cell as well
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Area-avg sounding for area 1., overall this area is closest to the forcing and lacks any capping inversion, towards late afternoon/into the night things could grunge/collide, however LLLRs are pretty good, and there's some solidly backed flow (again low level shear isn’t incredibly strong), once again this argues for a tornado threat with a few strong ones with any discreet/semi-discreet supercells
One thing that jumps out vs other areas is the hail threat for these areas, MLLRs are over 7.5, mid level and upper level winds are favorable for very large hail, can kinda see the straightness of the Hodograph past 1km through 8km (this effectively ventilates supercells as well to give more classic structures), also a damaging wind threat should evolve especially as storms form into a QLCS
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area avg sounding for area 2, the most interesting in my opinion, you can see the EML in this one one quite well along with a mid level capping inversion, plenty of low level instability, solid low level shear, backed flow, but imo this area has potential to harbor a supercell/few supercells that could find there own open environment Given the EML and produce some tornadoes (some strong/violent ones)
We
Welp, looks like my neck of the woods in West GA just got looped into the Enhanced region great....
Ron Burgundy
Member
The outlier “surprise” tornadoes are the ones that seem to get us. The ‘75 tornado that tore through NW ATL was the same way. And I believe the ‘98 Dunwoody tornado was on a slight risk night. Plus the absolute freak tornado that came out of a squall line moving SE from TN in June ‘13 and clobbered the Marietta / Sandy Springs area. First time I’d ever seen a tornado move NW to SE!
Justin Buchinsky
Member
Calling all people with NC chasing experience... Looking for advice as I begin planning a chase day. Favorable road networks, roads to avoid etc.
Any advice? I'm familiar with southern VA but never ventured south in my limited career.
Any advice? I'm familiar with southern VA but never ventured south in my limited career.
And if they add a high risk like they said they may, that often results in the mdt risk being pushed out even just a little bit, not guaranteed to expand tho
NoSnowATL
Member
Yea this isn’t looking bad from Atlanta north. Still might sneak 1-2 strong storms but nothing as of now to make me stay up late. I’ll be interested in seeing how much instability we can get tomorrow morning and afternoon. Wedge always saves us and probably will be the case again.
Stephenb888
Member
Seems like the main line of storms always fires up right along the NE GA/SC line. Didn’t get any snow this year but I can always count on Anderson Sc to get into the severe weather.
NoSnowJoe
Member
Looks the the HRRR is quicker but was still about to fire up a second round of storms over the NC peidmomt 
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Brick Tamland
Guest
