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March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak

If I do chase I’m eyeing eastern Harnett county and 4 oaks area of Joco. 4 oaks is where Webber’s friend 1300 lives .
 
ryan1234 said:
If that's what he said then that's a really stupid decision on his part, especially given what some modeling is showing. Brad P. may get a lot of criticism, especially when it comes to winter wx and being overly conservative at times, but he doesn't mess around when it comes to severe weather. As no met should. It's during these times I am thankful to be in the CLT market. Brad does an excellent job covering severe weather events. Not trying to diss WRAL and the mets, but come on.
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For the record, this is what he said within the hour: (from this link: WRAL Mike Maze - Home | Facebook )

"We are watching for strong to severe storms in the afternoon and evening on Thursday with the time frame right now from 2PM through 8PM. We expect a broken line with damaging winds, a few tornadoes being possible and hail. @WRALWeather "

This doesn't at all sound like he's downplaying anything and sounds like a perfectly reasonable forecast to me. Hopefully it won't end up being bad.
 
Has the timeline for severe weather been moved up for tomorrow ? I'm noticing a lot of school closing Birmingham eastward but I was thinking it wouldnt be until after 5pm before they were under the gun.
 
GaWx said:
For the record, this is what he said within the hour: (from this link: WRAL Mike Maze - Home | Facebook )

"We are watching for strong to severe storms in the afternoon and evening on Thursday with the time frame right now from 2PM through 8PM. We expect a broken line with damaging winds, a few tornadoes being possible and hail. @WRALWeather "

This doesn't at all sound like he's downplaying anything and sounds like a perfectly reasonable forecast to me. Hopefully it won't end up being bad.
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Well, thank you for rectifying that. That was not was originally stated before.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Has the timeline for severe weather been moved up for tomorrow ? I'm noticing a lot of school closing Birmingham eastward but I was thinking it wouldnt be until after 5pm before they were under the gun.
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I think It is because of the uncertainty of how severe the afternoon round of storms will be. Error on the side of caution kind of thing.
 
From Brad P. "Watching the first supercells develop tonight in southern Mississippi tonight. This is the area that will be impacted tomorrow and we wait and see how much of these will then develop into the Carolinas on Thursday. Stay Weather Aware and if you have friends or family in the South AR-MS-LA-AL-TN-GA tell them the same tomorrow tonight and tomorrow."

The man is concerned and rightfully so.
 
Arcc said:
Gonna see that some tomorrow, late afternoon and evening. The question will be; is there enough low level helicity to produce or will the first round just knock out windows?
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here’s the current soundings now near that supercell
Were gonna tac on 10-15kts in the low levels Tommorow afternoon C614CA35-111C-4280-9F0F-F3D0B2CA42D9.png
 
Greg Fishel says right now he doesn't think there will be enough low lever shear for a major tornado outbreak.

A FEW COMMENTS ON THE THURSDAY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT

When I see the Storm Prediction Center put us in an enhanced risk of severe weather with the possibility of strong tornadoes 2 days out, I definitely take notice! But I must say, at first glance, I'm not sure I see this as being a huge threat, although I certainly don't want to rule it out, as I have immense respect for the folks in Norman, Oklahoma, who truly are the brightest minds in the world when it comes to severe weather forecasting.

Instability and Wind Shear are always the 2 biggies we look for when it comes to severe weather, and you don't always need both. Sometimes one is lacking, but the other more than makes up for it. In this particular case, there will be tremendous wind shear over a deep layer, but over the years, research has shown that the wind shear over the lowest kilometer of the atmosphere can be the difference between a severe weather event characterized by straight line wind damage with a few isolated tornadoes, and an event that has more tornadoes with some of them strong. At this point, that low level shear seems to be lacking on Thursday, which would lead me to believe that while severe weather is certainly possible if not likely, the chance of a major tornado outbreak, at least for now, seems to be on the low side. Now, as you know it's been a chilly day, and we are clearly in the middle of a cold air damming event. This cold air is expected to retreat and get out of here Thursday. If for some reason, the cold air is more belligerent, and we have a front nearby separating the retreating cold air from the advancing warm air, then the low level wind shear would be much more significant, and that could well be a game changer.

Fortunately, we still have some time to watch this. So at this point, don't run to the basement in a state of panic. It's wait and see time, and by tomorrow night/Thursday morning, we should have a much better idea as to what to expect during the day Thursday. Stay warm!
 
SD said:
Geez. Hrrr has some tor potential tinted morning along the warm front in Al/Ga. Then tomorrow afternoon again in parts of Al/west Ga and that's just though 20z that I've seen before the better llj
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That's what the guys post I shared said. The morning might start off with a surprise bang or two
 
Zander98al said:
That's what the guys post I shared said. The morning might start off with a surprise bang or two
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The HRRR did have a little bit of an inversion particularly NE of BHam. I'm not sure if it would be enough since it's not particularly deep or strong but it might be enough to aid in keeping some storms elevated for at least the first half of the day.

My knowledge base isn't good enough to say for sure
 
Looks like the timing of cell initiation on the first round is key. If it is earlier in the day when low level helicity is on the lower side, the main threat by far will be hail. However if it is later, those cells in east AL/GA could be prolific tornado producers.
 
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