Psalm 148:8
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- Dec 25, 2016
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Dude.. my neighborhood... give me some city locations or a hrrr map.. I’m in charge of kids tomorrow at school... we didn’t cancel in Troup co GA
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March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
Woah those are some huge low level Hodographs on the HRRR 
Avalanche
Member
You can come to my place in Pittsboro. Fridge is full of beer. Take pics from chasing down east.
Avalanche
Member
4 oaks, smithfield, selma. Johnston county seems to get the brunt of severe weather.
Avalanche
Member
Looks more squallish and broken. Renegades out ahead of it? Those worry me.
Where exactly are cells supposed to be earlier in the day on wed in AL/GA? i havent really heard anything about that until you just spoke of it, every local met ive watched hasnt mentioned anything but rain showers until late wed night into the early am thursday when the main stuff rolls in
area averaged sounding across NC on the HRRR, plenty of low level shear with classic bullet hodograph shapes as cameron nixon calls them 
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Fishel might have to change his tune about not having enough low level shear.
That stuff that gets going in the early to mid afternoon on the NAMs tomorrow in eastern MS west Al goodness. May end up with 1 or 2 dominant cells rolling around at that time
Unfortunately our area. The WRFs and HRRR has the best combination of shear/cape/helicity along with cell initiation across the east central AL/west central GA area in the first round.
Oh no 
The 3km soundings are scary lol
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Crap, that doesn't look good.
lol area averaged soundings from the 3km
NC
SC
NC
SC
Avalanche
Member
Can we please shift this SE!!
Oof 
Wonder if they stay enhanced or go moderate or wait till tomorrow aft 
I don’t think it’s widespread enough to warrant issuing a moderate ... I can see an enhanced with an expanded SIG SEV dashed area .. with a mention of possible upgrading of future runs hold same trends
Yeah and some CAMs just have a QLCS and don’t look as scary as NAMs
Thursday looking interesting here. CJ has us in the high risk category. Looking forward to hearing some rumbles.
Lol bassfield
Not too shabby for it being night time.
(my backyard)
(my backyard)
The more I look at the more I waffle. I’m going to bed....
Is it me or is the hrrr gradually looking more ominous, keeps on consistently showing rotating storms in central AL tomorrow afternoon
Storm5
Member
This right here. Base 0-1km SRH is only around 150-200 during the first wave(discrete supercells). While I know these numbers are good enough for a tornado threat, I’ve had my tail burned way too many times expecting something big with numbers like this.
Note: I’m referring to the first wave because it looks like it may be a greater threat to my area, not the second.
Attachments
Jrips2710
Member
High risk issued. Waiting on the map
Jrips2710
Member
Snowflowxxl
Member
Wow didn’t think there was enough model support to warrant that yet but they know a lot more than me at the SPC.
RebelBearLandshark
Member
Oxford is pretty much split right along the high risk zone
STRONG WORDING FROM SPC
Of particular interest is the boundary-layer moisture that is now
present along the Gulf Coast where lower 70s surface dew points are
observed. This air mass will advance north during the day and
diurnal heating will allow moderate instability to develop along a
corridor from southern LA through central MS into western AL where
SBCAPE should be on the order of 2500 J/kg. While the primary 500mb
speed max will likely maintain convection along the surging Pacific
front over southeast TX, an uncapped, buoyant air mass downstream
over MS/AL should prove favorable for discrete supercell development
ahead of the primary short wave. Forecast soundings across the HIGH
Risk exhibit profiles favorable for strong, long-track tornadoes,
and this is especially true from northeast LA through northern MS
into northwest AL.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/17/2021
Of particular interest is the boundary-layer moisture that is now
present along the Gulf Coast where lower 70s surface dew points are
observed. This air mass will advance north during the day and
diurnal heating will allow moderate instability to develop along a
corridor from southern LA through central MS into western AL where
SBCAPE should be on the order of 2500 J/kg. While the primary 500mb
speed max will likely maintain convection along the surging Pacific
front over southeast TX, an uncapped, buoyant air mass downstream
over MS/AL should prove favorable for discrete supercell development
ahead of the primary short wave. Forecast soundings across the HIGH
Risk exhibit profiles favorable for strong, long-track tornadoes,
and this is especially true from northeast LA through northern MS
into northwest AL.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/17/2021
Jrips2710
Member
day 2
Snowflowxxl
Member
UMMM MODERATE upgrade day 2
Okay so we know SPC is not playing around this year .. noted