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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

Worse case scenario unfolding
View attachment 6856
Well there is one more component that can make this even worse. If....we are faced with this and it comes in but drops further south inland (at or below the Florida line and comes up the coast).....Charley! Unsuspecting and not prepared for inland winds!
 
Well there is one more component that can make this even worse. If....we are faced with this and it comes in but drops further south inland (at or below the Florida line and comes up the coast).....Charley! Unsuspecting and not prepared for inland winds!
I told you to cut off the mind meld ... LOL ... ;)
 
So I hear all the time that the stronger the hurricane, the more it wants / does get pulled poleward!? Wouldn’t that argue for a more northerly track?
Its situationally dependent. Are you asking about maybe 50 miles or 200?

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7pm CDT advisory.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 86.5W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES

213230_3day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
FWIW 18z HMON has landfall between 125-130knts and 934mb, HRWF is about the same of pressure but between 115-120knts.
The thought is crossing my mind that possibly results from a segment of tools were ignored because they didn't fit previous scenarios that played out in a different way. So the message was ignored? We will know tomorrow....
 
Its situationally dependent. Are you asking about maybe 50 miles or 200?

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Let’s go with 50. That would catch a lot of people off guard! I expect more trees down around here, than we had with Florence
 
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