Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

[deltadog03]

EURO pulled back a little NW (inland areas). this is the 12z run and its heavier than the 00z run.

 

[WeatherAddiction]

Well it looks like Irmo-Chapin area is gonna get hit w some pretty harsh winds and heavy rain

 

[StoneMtnWx]

AF301 has obs MSLP down to 951.8 now on last pass with surface winds up to 105kts.

 

[Webberweather53]

Michael's convective canopy on IR is horrifyingly deep and extensive. While the storm is strong, it's also a subtle sign that Michael hasn't used up much of the CAPE in its surrounding environment and is still a good ways from Emanuel's Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI).

 

[Kylo]

FV3 really struggled. Past 36 hours of runs.

 

[Henry2326]

FV3 really struggled. Past 36 hours of runs.

View attachment 6850

I think its lost its mojo....

 

[Psalm 148:8]

FV3 really struggled. Past 36 hours of runs.

View attachment 6850

What if it winds up being right???

 

[Kylo]

What if it winds up being right???

Good point. I guess if tomorrow night it's tracking over northern GA and into western NC then yes it will be correct. But, that means every other model today and it's ensembles will be wrong, including NHC.

 

[snowlover91]

Simply incredible.

 

[pcbjr]

FV3 really struggled. Past 36 hours of runs.

View attachment 6850

I think its lost its mojo....

What if it winds up being right???

Then we're all running in reverse animation ...

 

[pcbjr]

Simply incredible.
View attachment 6851

Like the pic and the thought ... thanks for both!

 

[ForsythSnow]

Drop in the NE part just came in. 140 mph winds at the surface. Cat 5 in there too further up.

 

[WeatherLC]

Drop in the NE part just came in. 140 mph winds at the surface. Cat 5 in there too further up.

Surface or flight?

 

[Arcc]

Drop in the NE part just came in. 140 mph winds at the surface. Cat 5 in there too further up.

There it goes, the IR image is incredible.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Surface or flight?

Its surface so more than likely this thing is going boom now.

 

[snowlover91]

Surface or flight?

Surface is 143mph and 875mb level is 165mph.

 

[Henry2326]

Drop in the NE part just came in. 140 mph winds at the surface. Cat 5 in there too further up.

NAM 935, here we come!

 

[Shawn]

With the current rapid intensification of Michael and the likely Category 4 strength (unofficial), what can be said about the "diurnal max" with this setup over night?

 

[No snow for you]

I’ll see you 935 and raise you 896.

NAM 935, here we come!

 

[Arcc]

I cant help but get flash backs to a late night in late August 2005 when I look at IR.