• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

Any idea when it should reach the Raleigh area? My office is closing at noon.
 
Its very gusty here up in Pickens county sc. we are on the back end of the storm as I’m about to take my kids to school. Hard to believe schools didn’t delay or close. As I bet some of these gust are 35-40
 
Nomanslandva said:
Does not look like point and click forecasts from NWS are buying into that backside strong wind threat. I looked at places like Concord NC and Richmond VA and gust to 40? Maybe they know better...and they normally are right:) But there is a lot of different guidance showing much higher gusts than that.
Click to expand...

Yeah mine shows a gust to 34 mph..... but as packfan quoted below, the devil's in the details, they actually touch on the potential in the AFD. If those models are correct gonna be significant issues

Brick Tamland said:
Any idea when it should reach the Raleigh area? My office is closing at noon.
Click to expand...

Probably getting gusty around midday and then that strong wind band, if it verifies, will be late afternoon 3-6ish

packfan98 said:
From the morning discussion at the NWS Raleigh:

"Its worth noting that the impacts from Michael may be more
significant than those of Florence across the Triad and
Triangle areas."
Click to expand...

I think they and local mets are dropping the ball a little by not mentioning this potential to the public. Most people don't read into the AFD details they just glance at the forecast and move on. If the HRRR verifies thousands going to be caught off guard.
 
I think tornados could be a significant threat especially eastern half of state

And this from Rah..

5b54d0d2ad4597b5d3f488a931b64dcf.jpg


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
I see another death reported overnight, an 11 year old killed when a tree fell on their home in Georgia. Very sad.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
packfan98 said:
From the morning discussion at the NWS Raleigh:

"Its worth noting that the impacts from Michael may be more
significant than those of Florence across the Triad and
Triangle areas."
Click to expand...

Ridiculous how the local mets here were saying yesterday how this won't nearly be as bad as Florence.
 
Georgia DOT is reporting numerous road incidents all over the state, with fallen trees, downed power lines, and other debris blocking roadways.
Screenshot_2018-10-11_at_8.16.59_AM.png
 
metwannabe said:
Paging @deltadog03 how'd you fair last night? Hopefully no major issues....

Man the hi res models are not wavering on that solid band of strong winds on the backside this evening, showing anywhere from 50-70 mph
Click to expand...
He could be like my in-laws down in se Alabama. No power, no cell phones. Verizon was down in there area last night. We finally heard from them this morning.
 
Can someone tell me what the timing looks like for when things start going downhill in the Triangle?
 
You have a couple of us blocked? Myself and NCsnow responded earlier, probably 3 give or take an hour
Brick Tamland said:
Can someone tell me what the timing looks like for when things start going downhill in the Triangle?
Click to expand...

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
Paging @deltadog03 how'd you fair last night? Hopefully no major issues....

Man the hi res models are not wavering on that solid band of strong winds on the backside this evening, showing anywhere from 50-70 mph
Click to expand...
Somehow we didn't loose power .I have a lot to clean up today after work.
 
I'm getting worried about a couple of trees in my backyard, they were already weakened after Florence and now they are really starting to tilt.
 
Dodged a bullet here. Not too bad, not too bad at all. We've had worse winds with strong arctic fronts.

The real victims are FL & GA. Also, parts of NC will be looking at a bigger TOR risk today (than CAE had) along with some interesting wind gusts that could make things tricky.
 
What do you think your winds are gusting to right now? Just curious to see reality compared to what the models are showing
SimeonNC said:
I'm getting worried about a couple of trees in my backyard, they were already weakened after Florence and now they are really starting to tilt.
Click to expand...

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
You can't notice in this pic but the two middle trees are really taking a beating and are bending towards the house whenever there's a gust of wind.
f6643a51c81b3d68a407b8f4efadf47b.jpg


Sent from my Z983 using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
What do you think your winds are gusting to right now? Just curious to see reality compared to what the models are showing

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I would estimate at around 25-35mph at the worst. I really hope that band modeled by the hrrr is overdone.

Sent from my Z983 using Tapatalk
 
Well, I can mark myself safe as well. I actually did lose power twice though through the late night hours, I had a little trouble sleeping but I think it was after that. First time I heard the radio, then heard the microwave beeping.

Winds weren't as big of a problem as I thought. I wonder if it was a little higher than the airport which had 49 at its top but even if it was, probably still just 50-55 MPH gusts. Did hear on the local morning news about an apartment getting destroyed by a tree in the county south of me though.
 
HRRR has an area of 80kts by hour 9 and moving through a heavily populated area. IF it's right or even close then it's going to be really, really bad. 90-95mph gusts will cause significant tree damage and power outages that no one is expecting.
HRRRMA_sfc_gust_009.png
 
Yeah hope I'm wrong but I'm a little fearful that by the end of the day tornadoes maybe the big story.
deltadog03 said:
I hope everyone is all good! NC friends, heads up today. That TOR risk looks potentially nasty.
Click to expand...

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Even if it's over doing it, which in my opinion it probably is, but even if you knock 15 or 20 miles per hour off of that still going to be issues.
snowlover91 said:
HRRR has an area of 80kts by hour 9 and moving through a heavily populated area. IF it's right or even close then it's going to be really, really bad. 90-95mph gusts will cause significant tree damage and power outages that no one is expecting.
HRRRMA_sfc_gust_009.png
Click to expand...

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top