Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

[pcbjr]

Actually gonna benefit being S of 85 for a change!! Johnny C said that would be heaviest rains and strongest winds!

Is / If that's what you want, Merry Christmas!

 

[Kylo]

Recon just found 955 and the deep convection is wow.

 

[Metwannabe]

Going to be difficult to track his motion in the short term until the eye clears out, the way that deep convection is wrapping it will look like it's wobbling but man when it clears out it's going to be impressive

 

[pcbjr]

Going to be difficult to track his motion in the short term until the eye clears out, the way that deep convection is wrapping it will look like it's wobbling but man when it clears out it's going to be impressive

and friggin' scary (not a side comment either ... said from "been there done that" a few too many times) ...

 

[ForsythSnow]

Going to be difficult to track his motion in the short term until the eye clears out, the way that deep convection is wrapping it will look like it's wobbling but man when it clears out it's going to be impressive

And it's so small too. Definitely going to run for a cat 4 I think.

 

[pcbjr]

And it's so small too. Definitely going to run for a cat 4 I think.

The small one are the hardest ... they are like a child in diapers and just raise all sorts of hell in the least expected places ...

 

[Kylo]

18z GFS really likes that 85 corridor for heaviest rains, sure is gusty in eastern NC too.

 

[Arcc]

And it's so small too. Definitely going to run for a cat 4 I think.

No doubt, big intensification spike incoming.

 

[Storm5]

18z gfs looks like the euro


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[pcbjr]

Last banter unless something major occurs, but so interesting ...
This town is out of gas and Publix is inundated ... with a storm that's supposed to pass 150 miles west ... ever been snake bit?

Edit:
What an impressive line of demarcation ...

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

18z gfs looks like the euro


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At landfall I’m assuming? The 18Z GFS takes it north of Columbia so a good chunk north of Euro.

 

[SASQUATCH]

This sure does remind me of Opal.

 

[No snow for you]

This sure does remind me of Opal.

It really reminds me of Hugo not in terms of location but possible RI and speed once it does make landfall. Heck parts of S.C. could see hurricane force winds.

 

[Tarheel1]

At landfall I’m assuming? The 18Z GFS takes it north of Columbia so a good chunk north of Euro.

We may get shellacked!!

 

[SD]

6-10" for central NC. We saw that from Florence and that took 2+ days to achieve. Seems high but we will see.

View attachment 6840

I don't think it's impossible. Trough passing to the north and west, divergence over the area, possibly a weak jet streak coming up the apps, well above normal pwats, and a h7 and h85 flow off the Atlantic means a big left of track rain event.

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[Henry2326]

NAM 3 18z at 932 pressure and drifting slightly south on track compared to all other models.

HWRF 12Z 939

 

[SD]

Tornado threats on the east side??

Anywhere north and east of the track. Im thinking there could be a max of tornado potential in eastern nc as the storm approaches late in the day. We may have some bands originating from the Atlantic with Cape in place from heating during the midday.

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[pcbjr]

We may get shellacked!!

"!!" ... Happy about that? Just wonderin' ...

 

[SD]

18z GFS really likes that 85 corridor for heaviest rains, sure is gusty in eastern NC too.

View attachment 6845 View attachment 6844

I do wonder if the gfs is pulling the system slightly NW in response to the heavy precip axis its developing in almost a collective feedback issue. Just a thought when looking at the gfs track vs say the UK seems euro.

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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

"!!" ... Happy about that? Just wonderin' ...

We welcome the rain. We can handle some 50mph wind gusts as well. We don’t want anything over 70mph though!