Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

[pcbjr]

Been watching for a couple of days but nothing to contribute (everyone seems to be on the second with this one) ... until this thought came to mind ... rode out Kate at my farm north of Thomasville, and Opal (now that was a story) a tad south of Blairsville ... thought both would be "safe" locations ... so bottom line, Delta, FS and the rest of y'all inland, please take care, be safe and don't downplay potential impacts ...
Good Luck and Prayers,
Phil

 

[packfan98]

Does anyone have the early 18z model suite, or a link? I can never find those.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Does anyone have the early 18z model suite, or a link? I can never find those.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_latest.png

 

[packfan98]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_latest.png

Many thanks! Looks like the consensus is right on the official track.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

18Z NAM appears to be a tick NW at landfall from 12Z run.

 

[pcbjr]

Many thanks! Looks like the consensus is right on the official track.

Save that comment for a deeeep gulf low with subfreezing at 500, in January ... LOL

 

[snowlover91]

This is BAD.

 

[Flurry]

This is BAD.

Damn...Look at those blow ups on the East side!!!

 

[Tarheel1]

This is BAD.

Still not very symmetrical, I don’t think it makes a run at Cat 4, just based on current satellite

 

[Tarheel1]

I’m also not really paying attention to track that much for mby, it’s going to come down to where the frontogenisi/deform band sets up on the NW and N side of the storm!
Somebody could get 6” plus as the band pivots .
Also, just went under a flash flood watch!

 

[stormcentral]

 

[stormcentral]

Its becoming symmetrical
For whoever said wasn't

 

[snowlover91]

Still not very symmetrical, I don’t think it makes a run at Cat 4, just based on current satellite

The storm is MUCH more symmetrical than it has been and looking very good especially the quickly improving south side. This is a classic cat 3 look and will likely be a cat 4 tonight. The eye is clouded over because of off the scale -90C clouds that are wrapping around. The eye will clear out tonight as this continues wrapping up. This is something you typically see in a super typhoon in the PAC not the Atlantic as far as the cold cloud tops goes.

 

[pcbjr]

This is something you typically see in a super typhoon in the PAC not the Atlantic as far as the cold cloud tops goes.

... and this is just the lil ol' GOM ...

 

[mydoortotheworld]

If Michael were to blow up this evening, let's hope that an ERC is squeezed in just as it makes landfall

 

[Tarheel1]

I guess that’s symmetrical!?

 

[StoneMtnWx]

We have new AF hurricane hunter in Michael. Obs slp down to 957.7 on that pass.

 

[snowlover91]

View attachment 6836 I guess that’s symmetrical!?

Check it out on a high resolution loop like this.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=meso1&product=vis

 

[Tarheel1]

Our local Mets, Johnny C and Chris J, saying that some models are showing Michael staying at Cat 1 through the entire state of SC!!

 

[snowlover91]

Eye is nearly surrounded by these hot towers now... no weak south/west side once this finishes up in the next hour or two. Then the eye will start to clear out and develop a stadium effect, already seeing signs of it starting to work on that process.