This has turned into a huge worse case scenario for FL and parts of GA. Wow. Accuweather predicts 15$ B damages
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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
snowlover91
Member
Notice the cirrus outflow, little "fingers" in the SE quad of the storm? This is a sign that shear has relaxed and the storm is really beginning to "breathe" and evacuate air hence the clearing eye. It will also help prevent further dry air intrusions now that this has happened. Unfortunately it appears the models are correct with the RI prior to landfall. Cat 4 is likely IMO and cat 5 has a small chance of occurring still.
GravityWave
Member
Even if the Euro is overdone, that’s still a scary signal given its current appearance and the convective energy it has to work with tonight.
What time is landfall looking like
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snowlover91
Member
Honestly the Euro may not be strong enough... in a storm that has an environment for RI and deep convection like this they often get even stronger than modeled. Sub 930mb is not out of the realm of possibility here.
snowlover91
Member
18z best track up to 115mph, 960mb pressure so a major coming at 5pm today.
Tomorrow afternoon
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Not quoting pictures but Michael's starting to look more and more ominous, I see.
RollTide18
Member
For reference, Opal got down 916mb
Where do you find the best track info (I think Eric shared it one day but I can't find it)
I have a meeting in Bay St Louis tomorrow morning at 7 . Trying to decide if I am going to head east afterwards or head home ....
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But weakened as it approached landfall, which hopefully Michael will do as well..... but good reference point
accu35
Member
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NW jump?Saw this . Lightening in the EW now.
snowlover91
Member
I actually don't have a link for it, I usually just pull it from another board that I use for tropical weather and usually someone there posts it as soon as it goes live.
snowlover91
Member
Check out this loop. Simply incredible to see the cirrus fingers expanding and the deep storms that are pushing around the eye now.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ram...mber_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ram...mber_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80
Found this on the NCAR site..... if correct that's 120 mph??
At 1800 UTC, 09 October 2018, MAJOR HURRICANE MICHAEL (AL14) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 25.5°N and 86.4°W. The current intensity was 105 kt and the center was moving at 10 kt at a bearing of 340 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb.
snowlover91
Member
Yep that's it! I calculated the knots wrong, so it would be 120mph at 5pm.
Dang and to think it hasn't yet realized it's full potential, this is getting critical
It does look that way .landfall looks a bit west too?
snowlover91
Member
Yeah these overshooting tops are -80C and some have approached -90C. The landfall areas are going to see tremendous surge and winds from this and Euro intensity seems on track and might not be strong enough. Sub 930mb is definitely possible here and cat 5, although unlikely, is possible. The only thing really that could slow this down is if an EWRC manages to start before landfall.