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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

Wonder what is causing the SLP to strengthen as it goes through NC and for the winds on the backside to ramp up. Well, this is per the NAM.

nam.925wh.us_ma.2018101018-loop (1).gif
 
Natedogg25 said:
Watching the radar loop... it seems to be back on northerly movement.
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Don't say that I'm North of that thing...shhhh

Seriously though looking the the IR on Tropical the last few frames you definitely see a Wobble and it looks to be moving definitely more NNE on the Western Side of the Track that's gotta be watched
 
If Michael took a path similar to Opal the damage would be unreal to Atlanta. This storm is just beyond words and I pray people take it seriously who are further inland.
 
Kylo said:
Wonder what is causing the SLP to strengthen as it goes through NC and for the winds on the backside to ramp up. Well, this is per the NAM.

View attachment 6927
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Baroclinic enhancement from the front and dry air mixing in to get the winds to the surface as well. All models are showing widespread 55-70mph gusts across NC, some like the HRRR are showing some 80-85mph gusts just east of Raleigh.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Michael has set a new standard. And seemingly out of nowhere. Michael is almost in Georgia and cloud tops are still REALLY impressive
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The NAM track and the collapsing of the NW side of the storm as it moves into the Upstate, seems about right! The Aiken to CAE path looks about right. It’s already almost due NE.
 
Does anyone think tropical storm Warning could go up for the other counties in South Carolina? Pickens and Greenville?
 
Depending on how much strength Michael maintains over the next hour or two, it could be in the Top 3 strongest hurricanes to ever hit Georgia (and doing it the wrong direction some 70 miles inland).
 
snowlover91 said:
Baroclinic enhancement from the front and dry air mixing in to get the winds to the surface as well. All models are showing widespread 55-70mph gusts across NC, some like the HRRR are showing some 80-85mph gusts just east of Raleigh.
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Guess Rah not changing anything atm? I tried to read their AFD but am getting a "we are experiencing technical difficulties" message, heckuva time for that
 
GaStorm said:
If Michael took a path similar to Opal the damage would be unreal to Atlanta. This storm is just beyond words and I pray people take it seriously who are further inland.
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I don't think it'll be that extreme but it'll be further north for sure. Probably in for a windy night into the morning up here before it moves on.
 
metwannabe said:
Guess Rah not changing anything atm? I tried to read their AFD but am getting a "we are experiencing technical difficulties" message, heckuva time for that
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They’re doing TS warnings for much of their area with the 5pm nhc update
 
I have a friend just north of Bainbridge GA that already has snapped trees and a shed destroyed. :/. Looks like shes right in the path of that eastern side too...
 
metwannabe said:
Guess Rah not changing anything atm? I tried to read their AFD but am getting a "we are experiencing technical difficulties" message, heckuva time for that
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Looks like they are going to increase TSW's.

The rain shield with Michael will move NE through the central
Carolinas Thu. While the surface wind field will have weakened from
its current hurricane status, this is a powerful storm with a lot of
energy, and the storm`s swift movement will allow far too little
time for significant dissipation of this energy. Winds just aloft
around the broad center of the storm will remain quite strong, with
model projections showing 40-60 kts at 925 mb on either side of the
center. And forecast soundings as well as model cross sections
indicate sufficient low level mixing just behind the center, as the
drier air dives in behind the departing storm, for a focused,
particularly intense band of winds from the N. Will monitor for this
potential closely through tomorrow. Irrespective of this occurrence,
the potential gusts within this still-tropical cyclone warrant an
areal expansion of the tropical storm warning, and this will take
place after the next NHC forecast package is issued, barring any
major track change (path or speed).
 
Already starting to get rain from the outer bands in Metro ATL. Man those poor folks in the panhandle though...unreal footage from Brett. Absolutely insane. I cant believe folks stayed.

The wind is calm here now though..was gusty earlier around 20 here but now it’s just rain falling.

Certainly hope this sucker doesn’t inch any further north than forecast for sure.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
snowlover91 said:
Baroclinic enhancement from the front and dry air mixing in to get the winds to the surface as well. All models are showing widespread 55-70mph gusts across NC, some like the HRRR are showing some 80-85mph gusts just east of Raleigh.
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But the local mets made up their mind this morning before it even hit that it was not going to be near as bad as Florence was here.
 
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The IR does show the weakening warming Cloud tops but I'll be curious to see just how fast it weakens over time considering speed it's moving
 
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