• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

snowlover91 said:
Just about every model struggled with Florence intensity after the botched EWRC that never really got going again. There will probably be some interesting studies into what happened and hopefully that data used in future model implementations to improve their performance but models still did a good job with the track despite the intensity struggles.
Click to expand...

I think Florence was a little bit of everything that messed up that forecast. It never quite got the dry air out, shear was stronger than modeled and due to two ERCs the wind field was too broad and never tightened back up.
 
Nice band looking to be setting up, pivoting into NGa /W Sc area in the next little while!! Some random, discreet cells nearby too! Was sunny the last 3-4 hours!
 
58183AFA-63BF-4052-9C9A-34D7BD9D1238.png Close, but no cigar! TS warnings!
 
snowlover91 said:
Just about every model struggled with Florence intensity after the botched EWRC that never really got going again. There will probably be some interesting studies into what happened and hopefully that data used in future model implementations to improve their performance but models still did a good job with the track despite the intensity struggles.
Click to expand...
Lol man I’m just a weather junkie but I’m trying. Michael exploded on IR late last night. I’d like to know what variable made this possible. The eye consolidated quickly. Seems RI depends a lot on eye diameter. It seems easier to keep convection wrapped around a pinhole for obvious reason
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Lol man I’m just a weather junkie but I’m trying. Michael exploded on IR late last night. I’d like to know what variable made this possible. The eye consolidated quickly. Seems RI depends a lot on eye diameter. It seems easier to keep convection wrapped around a pinhole for obvious reason
Click to expand...

Here were the factors I saw for RI and why I predicted a cat 4 with a shot of a cat 5 a few days ago.
1. It’s been my experience that systems that consistently maintain -80C or colder storms throughout their lifecycle will RI if/when they form a solid inner core and reach favorable conditions.
2. Storms that organize despite negative factors like shear and dry air often will explode once they reach better conditions.
3. When all globals show significant pressure drops it’s usually a sign of RI and when true RI occurs most storms end up stronger than globals intensity models show.
4. The Gulf waters at 29-30C with decent OHC were primed.
5. The shear that Michael struggled with even as a hurricane became less of a factor when it moved N to NE as did dry air when it got into the middle of the GOM.

Hope those help some, that’s all things I noticed from the many years I’ve been following it closely. Still learn stuff every year like with Florence when things just don’t go as forecast lol.
 
1300m said:
~90F SSTs provided a lot of fuel along with reduced shear in the final hours. I knew this was a possibility if the dry air could get mixed out, and unlike with Florence, it happened.
Click to expand...
I think someone said yesterday that the shallowness of the gulf wouldn’t allow it to reach Cat 4 or 5!?? Oops
 
Anderson County schools closed tomorrow in sc. I’m in Pickens county one county up. Very curious to see what happens here
 
Looking at the latest HRRR I don’t see why they wouldn’t expand TSW’s to include the northern part of Upstate SC. They should be included in school cancelations IMO and I don’t even have a dog in the fight
 
1300m said:
True, but on a more positive note, the FV3-GFS continues to impress me and I'm really interested to see how it performs this winter.
Click to expand...

I didn’t think the FV3 did well as it was way too far NW on many runs, including runs right through Atlanta. The worst with track was the CMC, which was way, way too far NW earlier.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Looking at the latest HRRR I don’t see why they wouldn’t expand TSW’s to include the northern part of Upstate SC. They should be included in school cancelations IMO and I don’t even have a dog in the fight
Click to expand...
It’s just one model! The gang at NWSGSP won’t budge until Euro shows it!
 
Tarheel1 said:
It’s just one model! The gang at NWSGSP won’t budge until Euro shows it!
Click to expand...
Before you bag on someones forecast you should put your own out there. You know models are guidance and not a forecast, your knocking everyone get to be nails on a chalkboard IMO.
And you need to use more of these !! !! !! !! ! !! !! !
 
1300m said:
~90F SSTs provided a lot of fuel along with reduced shear in the final hours. I knew this was a possibility if the dry air could get mixed out, and unlike with Florence, it happened.
Click to expand...

I’m not trying to pick on you and I fully agree with you about the unusually warm SSTs being a major factor, but for the record it wasn’t ~90 F. It was 29-30C or 84-86F all the way to the landfall, which was near record SSTs for early October (thanks to the unseasonable heat) and more like August normals. I know because I’ve been watching the SST maps and buoys for many days. I kept reading some folks saying the lower OHC there wouldn’t allow him to get very strong, but I countered by saying the unusually warm SSTs were all that was needed due to steady movement.
 
GaWx said:
I’m not trying to pick on you and you I fully agree with you about the unusually warm SSTs being a major factor, but for the record it wasn’t ~90 F. It was 20-30C or 84-86F all the way to the landfall, which was near record SSTs for early October (thanks to the unseasonable heat) and more like August normals. I know because I’ve been watching the SST maps and buoys for many days. I kept reading some folks saying the lower OHC there wouldn’t allow him to get very strong, but I countered by saying the unusually warm SSTs were all that was needed due to steady movement.
Click to expand...
Welcome back ... ;)
 
The guys at Gsp usually do a great job with winter weather at least. I’m sure this is a unique situation they haven’t had to deal with. So who knows how Gsp national weather Service will do.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top