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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

snowlover91 said:
From what I can tell it looks like most stations were knocked offline/destroyed that were in the eyewall. Panama City on the west side reported 100mph sustained I believe. Most likely the gusts in the worst locations were 150-160mph but it's hard to get an accurate read when the stations in the eyewall are knocked out.
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Mexico beach is completely destroyed from pic I saw... dang I hope people didn’t stay and I definitely hope if they did they didn’t have children. Prayers to all in the path.
 
The eye is showing signs of shrinking on radar and satellite which means it is starting to weaken finally. Holding together quite well considering and a strengthening storm at landfall is always worst case solution since it takes much longer to start winding down.
 
Helicopters and drones should be out soon, assessing coastal damage. I don't know how much things have to calm down to get those up safely, but the hurricane is moving on to the NE at a pretty good clip.
 
It's crazy looking at the NHC track and expectation that it will go over FL, GA, SC, NC and VA and go out to sea at still a tropical storm level in a few days
 
Michael has slightly weakened to 150 mph and the pressure has gone up to 922 mb.
 
I hope everyone in SW GA who lives in mobile home has evacuated, but unfortunately i know that's probably not the case.
 
Since it’s trying to pick up speed with the slight weakening and the Euro not having the pressure low enough could that mean even stronger winds over central Georgia?
 
Firing more -80C storms in the SE quad even though he's over land. Incredible.
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GeorgiaGirl said:
This might be the biggest problem of all of this, and because of how things played out, for casuals it might have really snuck up on them.
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I agree. I don't think people in SW GA have any idea what they are in store for. Many of them will be completely caught off guard despite all the warnings.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I agree. I don't think people in SW GA have any idea what they are in store for. Many of them will be completely caught off guard despite all the warnings.
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Yep...my mom is south Georgia said I was too worried about it. Geez...
I'm glad I'm in South Carolina. That's saying A lot considering the risk for canes here.
 
Here in NC a lot of people are going to be caught off guard. Some of the people I work with think it's moving through Saturday instead of Thursday... and they think we will see only 20-30mph winds because that's what locals are saying. Euro and about every other model is showing gusts 60-70mph.
 
I think people through all of GA, SC, and eastern NC, is going to be caught off guard. I think those 4 or 5 counties in northern upstate should be under the TS warning.

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snowlover91 said:
Here in NC a lot of people are going to be caught off guard. Some of the people I work with think it's moving through Saturday instead of Thursday... and they think we will see only 20-30mph winds because that's what locals are saying. Euro and about every other model is showing gusts 60-70mph.
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I understand. The HWRF-P slips slightly closer to the Florida line. a 50 mile shift that takes folks from nothing to something.

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FFC Weather Dicussion
Hurricane Michael made landfall near Mexico Beach Florida as a
major hurricane at category 4 earlier this afternoon. It is now
making a rapid acceleration to the NE with outer rain bands
already affecting Central Georgia. The most immediate concern is
the tornado threat as CAPE values have increased to 2000 J/KG and
helicities will remain quite high through the entirety of this
tropical event. Tornado watch has been issued for all of central
Georgia and extending into the southern Atlanta metro.
 
What's the chance of this tracking further NW of Columbia sc?

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HRRR is showing some intense baroclinic enhancement over NC on the west side of Florence. Near hurricane force gusts over Wake County and as high as 74kts in gusts to the east.
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