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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

One request when discussing the model runs- many are saying so and so model is 50 miles ‘north’, ‘south’, ‘east’, ‘west’ and are referring to where Michael will pass through your back yard which may be 500-800 miles away from the actual landfall point.

Normally it is the landfall point we are discussing when we say a model is 45 miles east or west so please take note to reference what geographic area you are looking at when you say such and such model is coming in so and so of the previous run.
 
F-5 said:
One request when discussing the model runs- many are saying so and so model is 50 miles ‘north’, ‘south’, ‘east’, ‘west’ and are referring to where Michael will pass through your back yard which may be 500-800 miles away from the actual landfall point.

Normally it is the landfall point we are discussing when we say a model is 45 miles east or west so please take note to reference what geographic area you are looking at when you say such and such model is coming in so and so of the previous run.
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We just say it as we see it
 
F-5 said:
One request when discussing the model runs- many are saying so and so model is 50 miles ‘north’, ‘south’, ‘east’, ‘west’ and are referring to where Michael will pass through your back yard which may be 500-800 miles away from the actual landfall point.

Normally it is the landfall point we are discussing when we say a model is 45 miles east or west so please take note to reference what geographic area you are looking at when you say such and such model is coming in so and so of the previous run.
Click to expand...
When we say a model is "north" typically it is referring to the previous run. For instance, the 12Z ICON was north of the 6Z icon. It has nothing to do with back yard posts.
 
Last couple of frames Michael has wobble little more west, or maybe I'm just seeing things
 
When’s the cvs3-GFS run again?
 
Did anybody post the 11 AM NHC updated track?? I saw it on local news, it looks N of last advisory!?
 
Tarheel1 said:
When’s the cvs3-GFS run again?
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Its started to run. It's also the FV3.
Tarheel1 said:
Did anybody post the 11 AM NHC updated track?? I saw it on local news, it looks N of last advisory!?
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It moved a hair north. I compared the interactive maps between advisory 12 and 11 and it went north about 10 miles.
 
Michael is moving, at a NNW motion, wonder if places west of PC like Destin could get a direct hit as the CMC is showing? Idk, just bored and on vacation
 
accu35 said:
Michael is moving, at a NNW motion, wonder if places west of PC like Destin could get a direct hit as the CMC is showing? Idk, just bored and on vacation
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NHC track actually gets it just west of due south of Destin before the bend back NNE... it looks on track to me
 
Tarheel1 said:
Was it still one of the farther N and W runs, like it’s been the last few days?
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Not anymore. It is now near the consensus and much slower. Just 5 runs ago it was near Atlanta as of 8PM EDT tomorrow. Now it is near where AL, FL, and GA come together at 8PM tomorrow! I know the CMC has struggled. But the FV3 hasn’t done well either.
 
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