ICON has some intense rain in NW piedmont of NC
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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
EastAtlwx
Meteorologist
This isn’t really true.. because of friction you usually see the sustained winds verify as gusts on land.. so 135-145 gusts...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
12k NAM, 3k NAM, RGEM all way further North at 12Z. Will the rest follow suit?
snowlover91
Member
Ocean front areas have no land to slow the winds down... so yes 160-170mph gusts are certainly possible in those areas if this is a cat 4.
W
WeatherLC
Guest
Okay guys let’s not argue.
He is still fighting some dry air too, never under estimate the power of a little dry air in a TC (although it only is probably just delaying the inevitable)
snowlover91
Member
Latest visibles show the eye is clearing out more now, very ominous look.
snowlover91
Member
Yeah the dry air has really slowed the western side of this system down but it now appears the eyewall is closing back off based on latest recon. IR is also showing the convection really wrapping now and if that continues there really isn't much to weaken it until landfall. I'm seeing reports on twitter of the surge already flooding some areas with water rises of a few feet so far.
packfan98
Moderator
12z GFS is slight further NE at hr 33 compared to 6z.
packfan98
Moderator
Looks like Michael is moving a little faster on the 12z models so far.
Yep so far seems to be the trend, faster movement and why it gets much further north before being shunted east
Snowflowxxl
Member
Gfs is gonna be north this run
accu35
Member
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Should we still follow the globle models at this point, or short range? Or nowcast?
packfan98
Moderator
We should use all available tools, but put more weight on some than others. Look for trends, use historical data, common sense, and go with a consensus of everything.
One concerning thing I've noticed too, is even though the models are speeding up Michael initially, it's not rocketing out of here once inland like it once was. No Florence stall and crawl I know but any reduction in forward speed is problematic especially with the enhance precip on the NW side as noted previously
CMC almost exact same track as GFS
26.0N 85.6W 80 84 100/ 35/ 49 998.7
This buoy, which is just east of where the eye is headed, shows 84F or 29C SST, i.e., still bathwater/closer to norms of a month ago. It is this way all the way to the coast.
This buoy, which is just east of where the eye is headed, shows 84F or 29C SST, i.e., still bathwater/closer to norms of a month ago. It is this way all the way to the coast.
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