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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

What we've learned from Florence and Michael is that intensity forecasts are not very reliable. Track is much more reliable.

Yes and no. The Euro has been honking a fast strengthening hurricane, and the HMON and HWRF have performed very well. The problem is everyone didn't really believe them.
 
Yes and no. The Euro has been honking a fast strengthening hurricane, and the HMON and HWRF have performed very well. The problem is everyone didn't really believe them.

same thing last year... the models actually had Harvey same way but nobody believed it
 
Yes and no. The Euro has been honking a fast strengthening hurricane, and the HMON and HWRF have performed very well. The problem is everyone didn't really believe them.
It's really quite sad. You just have to have the mentality that every storm has the capability of being a Cat 5.
 
It's really quite sad. You just have to have the mentality that every storm has the capability of being a Cat 5.

I'm sure all those years of nothing happening(12 years without a major) probably set people that way too. I know even amateurs I've talked to didn't believe some of the models
 
I'm sure all those years of nothing happening(12 years without a major) probably set people that way too. I know even amateurs I've talked to didn't believe some of the models
But I would think after the recent devastation in NC that would be fresh on people's minds. I guess people just have the mentality that it will never happen to them.
 
The winds on the backside will be stronger as it will be whipping across the water.


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from video evidence his car is just floating in the surge . i am assuming he is out of it since there is no voice to be heard
 
...MICHAEL INTENSIFIES AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR MEXICO BEACH
FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 85.5W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NW OF MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.41 INCHES
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 85.5W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NW OF MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.41 INCHES
 
...MICHAEL INTENSIFIES AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR MEXICO BEACH
FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 85.5W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NW OF MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.41 INCHES
Wow so close to a cat 5. Only 2 mph.
 
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