packfan98
Moderator
Here is the 6z EPS:
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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
snowlover91
Member
Recon flew around the center of the eye and is going for another pass into the NE quad.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Good grief at the north jump on 3k NAM. Goes from statesboro, ga to Newberry, SC in one run. Oy.
Supposedly, the new recon data will help give a more accurate track forecast for 12z suite. I hope so and we see the Atlantic ridge flex, and push this a little more N and W! Fingers crossed
GeorgiaGirl
Member
When I see this, it makes me wish the 3k NAM didn't exist:
South AL Wx
Member
Almost a major as of the latest advisory. Up to 110 mph, pressure down to 965 mb. NHC now forecasting a maximum intensity of 125 mph.
All this stuff starting to run together now, how did that compare to the 0z eps? Best I can recall looks close or a touch west maybe?Here is the 6z EPS:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is probably worth mentioning.
packfan98
Moderator
A touch west if I remember correctly...
Freaking cool right there!
The planes actually passed through the eye around the same
time just before 1200 UTC, and reported that they could see one
another.
The planes actually passed through the eye around the same
time just before 1200 UTC, and reported that they could see one
another.
snowlover91
Member
Yes as it passes over the loop current this afternoon I expect the south side will fill in and we see a symmetrical CDO finally. I'm personally thinking a category 4 for peak strength is possible, I envision a Harvey scenario where this strengthens up until it is over land (but not the stalling part of Harvey).
Latest Euro showing 165mph wind gusts near Panama City at landfall. Do I believe it? No, but that’s what it’s showing
If you want to believe the 3k NAM I land while track is still south of ATL it throws some strong storm bands due north which could bring severe storms and spawn a tornado or 2. Even too parts north of ATL
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Icon is well north as well. Wow.
Showmeyourtds
Member
Eric posted earlier that this might be a result of forcing from the trough axis. His post was pertaining mostly to the higher terrain of W. Carolina if I recall, but I’m not certain if the same would be true for other areas west of the circulation due to lack of orthographic lift.
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snowlover91
Member
It's very reasonable. This will likely be a high end 3 or category 4 at landfall. Wind gusts can be 25-35mph stronger than the sustained winds. This will likely make a run at cat 4 later tonight as the eye clears.
Yep, it is a little faster thus more north... never bet against the ridge
snowlover91
Member
Hot towers just now firing off on the N eyewall and the cold cloud tops are wrapping around... this is about to start bombing out I'm afraid.
snowlover91
Member
If this is 135-145mph at landfall gusts will be 160-170 in some areas. This is going to make a run for category 4 today, unfortunately. I hope everyone in Panama City is evacuated because there will not be much left after the surge and wind moves through.