Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

[Yellow Snow]

Can anyone explain why Gov. Deal hasn't yet declared a state of emergency for south and middle Georgia? The governor of Alabama issued a statewide state of emergency yesterday afternoon, and of course north Florida has been under an SOE for the last couple of days.

 

[Webberweather53]

Once the eyewall closes off and Michael moves away from the shallow warm water near and just to its west, this may have a chance to really take off. The last HH sonde brought its MSLP down to 968 hPa, this storm is intensifying a lot.

 

[Metwannabe]

Looks like the fv3 ticked west slightly.


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Slightly

 

[Metwannabe]

Once inland most guidance is west of the Official NHC track, except the Euro.....

 

[Metwannabe]

HWRF 947 mb at landfall on the west side of Panama City Beach

and Mack gets his flood warning

 

[WeatherAddiction]

I would think for SC midlands for the center to pass somewhere between Columbia and Newberry.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

I would think for SC midlands for the center to pass somewhere between Columbia and Newberry.

That would give places like Columbia, Charleston rough weather.

 

[Weatherlover92]

...MICHAEL STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...
7:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 9
Location: 24.5°N 86.1°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 968 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

 

[Henry2326]

Once inland most guidance is west of the Official NHC track, except the Euro.....

Interesting that the Euro has a west bias but its trending east.....

 

[WeatherAddiction]

NAM 3km has Michael bombing out at 893 mb before landfall. Highly over exaggerated.

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Looks like PCB to St.George Island will be landfall spot. FFC issued a tropical weather statement, very much in line with what all these models are showing. 25-40 mph winds, with occasional 60+, mainly along and south of a line from Columbus to Macon.

Looks to be a glancing blow & nothing more north of there unless something changes.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Could some places in SC see gust over 70 mph because of fast movement?

 

[snowlover91]

Eye is starting to try to clear on IR this morning.. hot towers firing around the eye and looks much better than it did last night. I would expect a run to cat 3 later today, once the eye clears the pressure should drop pretty quickly.

 

[Brick Tamland]

And the GFS 2: Electric Boogaloo has Michael going right over me when it comes inland. Hope he likes my Halloween decorations.

 

[snowlover91]

Could some places in SC see gust over 70 mph because of fast movement?

It's possible especially closer to the coast. Here's the Euro wind forecast gusts in knots.

 

[snowlover91]

Once the eyewall closes off and Michael moves away from the shallow warm water near and just to its west, this may have a chance to really take off. The last HH sonde brought its MSLP down to 968 hPa, this storm is intensifying a lot.

Eric, what are your thoughts on the transition and interaction of Michael as it moves across NC? I'm noticing some models are enhancing the west side, possibly due to some baroclinic influences as it is transitioning to extratropical? Euro wind gusts are pretty concerning for coastal NC with gusts over hurricane force... realistic or is the Euro out to lunch here?

 

[BHS1975]

Looks like he still trying to work out the dry air.


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[LovingGulfLows]

Eye is starting to try to clear on IR this morning.. hot towers firing around the eye and looks much better than it did last night. I would expect a run to cat 3 later today, once the eye clears the pressure should drop pretty quickly.

Weren't you saying last night that it looked good and a cat 4 or 5 was possible?

 

[snowlover91]

Weren't you saying last night that it looked good and a cat 4 or 5 was possible?

Yep the eye is clearing a little slower than I expected but a run to cat 4 is definitely possible. The dry air has been causing some issues with the eyewall slowing down the process but it has plenty of time to make a run at cat 4 especially with the deep convection it continues to maintain. The west/south side is where it's weakest and needs to improve to make cat 4 strength.

 

[Loganville Winter]

Good Morning from the Carnival Paradise. In the NE feeder band. If it would only let me post pics and video!!