accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
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I still believe from Pensacola to PC LF.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
Well, accu, you still have the CMC, JMA, HWRF, and HMON on your side. But the GFS, FV3, UKMET, and Euro have shifted mainly east of there.
IF Michael were to hit N FL as a major H, it would become the latest on record to do so and the 2nd latest on the northern Gulf coast back to 1851. Only #10 of 1886, which hit LA/TX on 10/12, hit later than when Michael will hit.
WeatherAddiction
Member
I think the mean will shift west cause it’s still east of most of the models
Whats interesting is the shift south slightly, as y'all have said, but for my back yard, its actually wetter this run, and gusts still possible upwards of 70+
Looks like I was right! I’m losing this thing to my SE!
6z
Looks like the shear has abated now. CDO becoming very circular and seeing outflow now expand to the west. Hot towers exploding in the eyewall.
From the dropsonde about an hour ago. Should be nearing MH status in the next 5-6 hours.
Here comes the show, CDO rapidly cooling with -90C tops firing in the eyewall. Outflow improving quickly.
Well I was making a map but power just went out. Lol. Unrelated to Michael oviously
See..... I wasn't completely crazy, Lol
reported that the eyewall had become less
organized, which may be due to some dry air entrainment
reported that the eyewall had become less
organized, which may be due to some dry air entrainment
Yeah, it’s looking slightly lopsided, with the big feeder band on the right side. That doesn’t scream RI, and can help ingest more dry air
Its starting to look like that has been worked out and the core looks better and better each sat pic
That was last night with the dry air that as the NHC stated "paused" strengthening, it's looking plenty healthy this morning unfortunately and dry air will not be an issue at this point
Completely agree.... I was just vindicating myself from last night Lol
You nailed it tho .those are some massive towers going up now
BHS1975
Member
Looks like the fv3 ticked west slightly.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
WeatherAddiction
Member
I’m leaning for toward FV3 at this point.