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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

metwannabe said:
Yeah, the east wobbles have been winning out lately although it almost looks like a slight wobble back north atm.... either way it may pass just east of them. Like you say going to be very close call.
Click to expand...

Yeah last few frames it looks to be wiggling back more to the north. These wobbles will be absolutely critical for them and I hope for their sake they get on the "weaker" nw side.
 
EWW issued by NWS TAE:


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
EXTREME WIND WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1111 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2018

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* EXTREME WIND WARNING FOR...
GULF COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
SOUTHERN BAY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT/115 PM CDT/.

* AT 1109 AM EDT/1009 AM CDT/, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATED EXTREME WINDS IN EXCESS OF 130 MPH, ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EYEWALL OF HURRICANE MICHAEL, WERE MOVING ONSHORE. THIS
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! TREAT THESE IMMINENT EXTREME WINDS AS IF A TORNADO
WAS APPROACHING AND MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO THE SAFE ROOM IN YOUR
SHELTER. TAKE ACTION NOW TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE!
 
Webberweather53 said:
There's little evidence this is a category 5 hurricane atm, even the dropsonde that measured 129 KT in the eyewall earlier is measuring instantaneous wind and has to be adjusted down to calculate 1-min average. I'd like to see FL winds get close to 155 knots before I'd even consider pulling the trigger on a 5. However given the merging mesovorts that might happen in short order.
Click to expand...

It's not there yet but getting pretty close. Radar at 7k feet is showing a good amount of 170-180mph winds on the east side and that number still is going up. It has enough time to hit cat 5 still but recon will need to sample some higher FL or SFMR winds to consider it.
 
No words...
mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05_20181010151358.gif
 
snowlover91 said:
It's not there yet but getting pretty close. Radar at 7k feet is showing a good amount of 170-180mph winds on the east side and that number still is going up. It has enough time to hit cat 5 still but recon will need to sample some higher FL or SFMR winds to consider it.
Click to expand...

I think the FL & SFMR will come up in response to the mesovort mergers ongoing atm how much idk but they probably should have given this the bump to 130 KT w/ under sampling taken into consideration at the last advisory even though the dropsonde in the weaker NW eyewall didn't exactly support it because of the instantaneous wind measurement adjustment to 1-min averaged sustained winds.
 
Yeah this thing is still strengthening. Can you imagine if you were in Port St Joe right now..Grief..the LF aftermath is going to rival Sullivan’s Island and IOP when Hugo hit with extreme damage inland
 
Webberweather53 said:
I think the FL & SFMR will come up in response to the mesovort mergers ongoing atm how much idk but they probably should have given this the bump to 130 KT w/ under sampling taken into consideration at the last advisory even though the dropsonde in the weaker NW eyewall didn't exactly support it because of the instantaneous wind measurement adjustment to 1-min averaged sustained winds.
Click to expand...

Yeah everything I see on radar, visible, IR and recon indicates this is probably a legit 150mph right now with a chance of hitting 155-160mph by landfall as the winds respond to the continued pressure falls... Either way though a 150mph cat 4 or 160mph cat 5 will be incredibly destructive.
 
Luckily (if there is a lucky side) this thing seems to be taking the less populated and developed route
 
ICON latest track and rainfall, starting to really see the effects of interaction with the trough as some 8" amounts showing up in areas that really don't need it

icon_apcpn_seus_15.png
 
1300m said:
There's actually a lot of evidence -- especially radar trends in the northern eyewall and the corresponding pressure drops found -- that this thing is right on the threshold of a Category 5.
Click to expand...

It's definitely close... but the NHC usually relies pretty heavily on the SFMR data and I doubt they will bump winds up unless that shows an increase or we see FL winds of 150+. This is very close to a cat 5 for sure and a remarkable but scary presentation on IR right now.
 
Unfortunately it looks like all the SFMR readings in the SE quad were flagged this pass. Personally I would go 150mph as the pressure falls, improving IR and radar presentation and increasing FL winds would support it especially if you use a higher conversion ratio to account for the RI and intense convection.
 
NHC will need more evidence to corroborate the MSLP falls before going w/ a 5, it's a little premature for anyone to think they should do so unless there's more evidence which there isn't quite yet. Notice we've had more mesovort mergers in the eyewall and we lost the polygonal, high wavenumber structure, it's evolving into a distinct, inertially stable monopole.

Screen Shot 2018-10-10 at 11.23.12 AM.png
 
Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1030 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...MICHAEL STILL STRENGTHENING AS THE EYE NEARS THE COAST OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph
(240 km/h) with higher gusts. The aircraft also reported that the
minimum pressure has fallen to 923 mb (27.26 inches).
 
FFC appears to be upgrading some of the tropical storm warnings to hurricane warnings ...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1033 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.UPDATE...

...Hurricane Conditions Becoming More Likely For Portions of
Central Georgia...

All attention is on powerful Hurricane Michael as it churns
rapidly toward the Florida coast as a Major Category 4 storm.
Concern for the local area is that the storm will now be starting
from a more intense initial condition at landfall and increasing
forward speed will not allow as much weakening as previously
thought. That is not to say we are anticipating Hurricane force
sustained winds as this is still possible but perhaps not likely.
But what we will see is widespread Hurricane force wind gusts
within the Hurricane warned area. As we have seen from several
storms the past two years, the impacts of these gusts to the local
area are on par with sustained winds for other areas with less in
the way of trees.

Therefore, we are very much playing up the gust and Hurricane
impact potential and will be upgrading a portion of the Tropical
Storm warning to a Hurricane warning with this next issuance. Have
also increased the tornado threat for SE portions of the forecast
area beginning this afternoon and continuing through early Thu.
Flood impacts still looks on track with some flash flooding
possible with the anticipated 3 to 5 inches and locally higher
amounts.

&&

Deese
 
I can't imagine if this was actually headed to an area with any kind of substantial population or structures. Minus the few in and around Mexico Beach, the panhandle will be very very lucky!
 
Brent said:
Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1030 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...MICHAEL STILL STRENGTHENING AS THE EYE NEARS THE COAST OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph
(240 km/h) with higher gusts. The aircraft also reported that the
minimum pressure has fallen to 923 mb (27.26 inches).
Click to expand...

And there we go, 150mph and 923 pressure.
 
HMON and HWRF nailed the landfalling pressures. Just... wow. I thought they were off their collective rocker showing below 945mb. Michael is about to put his name into the record books.
 
FFC even issued a Public InformationStatement!
000
NOUS42 KFFC 101509
PNSFFC
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-110400-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1109 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...Potentially Historic Tropical Event For Central and East Georgia...

Hurricane Michael is now a Category 4 Major Hurricane racing
toward the Florida panhandle. Storms of this intensity this time
of year moving this rapidly are exceedingly rare and the National
Hurricane Center has expressed the possibility of slightly further
strengthening just prior to landfall along the Florida coast.
Should this occur, with the rapid movement of the storm, weakening
would be limited such that Category 1 Hurricane-force winds would
still be felt over portions of central Georgia including areas
near Americus, Cordele, Perry, and Eastman.

With this being the tail end of Hurricane Season and with the
long ordeal of Hurricane Florence for some, it can be easy to
become complacent. This is not the storm to do that with!!
Regardless of any changes in intensity prior to landfall, it will
still result in the downing of hundreds to potentially thousands
of trees and powerlines leading to impassable roads for perhaps
days and loss of power for perhaps weeks.

There will also be an enhanced tornado risk along and south the
I85 corridor with the greatest risk across southeast portions of
the forecast area. Although the storm will be moving fairly
rapidly, rainfall totals could still exceed 5 inches in the same
southeast portions resulting in localized flash flooding.

Those outside the Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warning locations,
including the Atlanta metro should still prepare for locally
windy conditions that will be capable of bringing down trees and
powerlines.

While the impacts will be felt within the next 24 hours, there is
still time today to prepare. You can go to Ready.gov to find out
what steps you can take to be ready for this significant event. At
a minimum, those within the Hurricane Warning should make sure
they have water and food supplies sufficient for the next several
days and those with medical conditions requiring power should
prepare for the loss of electricity for potentially a week or
longer. PLEASE heed the messages from local emergency management
officials on potential shelters and other pertinent information.

$$
Click to expand...
 
k0skinne said:
FFC appears to be upgrading some of the tropical storm warnings to hurricane warnings ...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1033 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.UPDATE...

...Hurricane Conditions Becoming More Likely For Portions of
Central Georgia...

All attention is on powerful Hurricane Michael as it churns
rapidly toward the Florida coast as a Major Category 4 storm.
Concern for the local area is that the storm will now be starting
from a more intense initial condition at landfall and increasing
forward speed will not allow as much weakening as previously
thought. That is not to say we are anticipating Hurricane force
sustained winds as this is still possible but perhaps not likely.
But what we will see is widespread Hurricane force wind gusts
within the Hurricane warned area. As we have seen from several
storms the past two years, the impacts of these gusts to the local
area are on par with sustained winds for other areas with less in
the way of trees.

Therefore, we are very much playing up the gust and Hurricane
impact potential and will be upgrading a portion of the Tropical
Storm warning to a Hurricane warning with this next issuance. Have
also increased the tornado threat for SE portions of the forecast
area beginning this afternoon and continuing through early Thu.
Flood impacts still looks on track with some flash flooding
possible with the anticipated 3 to 5 inches and locally higher
amounts.

&&

Deese
Click to expand...
That is smart!
 
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