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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

hwrf_ref_14L_13.png
 
Looks like the models are zeroing in on strength, 940-945mbs and 130-145mph. No real crazy RIC on any model, just steady strengthening until landfall.
 
that dropped down 4mb in a matter of no time (highlighted in red)
Current Intensity Analysis
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 OCT 2018 Time : 044538 UTC
Lat : 23:29:31 N Lon : 85:23:51 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 956.8mb/ 97.2kt
 
recon pressure hasn't dropped yet, still around 970 mb so nothing crazy yet

Also eye was not closed on the VDM, not gonna see much strengthening atm with that

COMMA SHAPED EYE. LESS THEN 50% COVERAGE OPEN FROM S-W.
 
0Z Euro significantly east of its 12Z run at hour 18
 
0Z Euro hour 30 is 50 miles SE of its 12Z run and stronger.
 
Hour 36: 0Z Euro is 50 miles SE of its 12Z run. Look out Apalachicola!

Edit: Hour 42: 0Z Euro is 75 miles SE of its 12Z run
 
Not saying its wrong, but i don't see Michael making it that far east as Euro shows. Others models are much more west
 
0Z Euro hour 54 over where GA/AL/FL meet. 12Z Euro hour 66 was 75 miles north of that position on AL/GA border not too far south of Ft. Benning. Huge shift south.
 
There clearly has been a south and east shift of the model consensus at 0Z. And that includes the GEFS and GEPS.
 
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