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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
snowlover91
Member
The Euro initializes this way too weak at 961mb but here is the wind map based off that.
A Toucans in Mexico Beach has been destroyed.
Just for reference, Callaway is near Panama City on the west side of the eyewall.
packfan98
Moderator
Here's the latest Euro track.
Rainfall wise it won't be because of how fast it's moving.But the local mets said this won't be nearly as bad as Florence here.
We can argue Cat 4 or Cat later when they do post storm analysis, please and thanks.
I mean had you rather get hit with a ton of bricks or a ton of feathers? just sayin
I mean had you rather get hit with a ton of bricks or a ton of feathers? just sayin
Snownut
Member
Same goes for the other counties in upstate sc that's not under it.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Yes, but they failed to mention the wind could be worse.
Those numbers steadily increasing with each run.... as brick pointed out local mets saying "this isn't Florence" is dumb approach imo.The Euro initializes this way too weak at 961mb but here is the wind map based off that.
Significant jump north I believe, until you get in NC almost same there due to the eastward movementHere's the latest Euro track.
And just like that the entire eye is inland, it's moving...
The next bad thing is as with Harvey, it's come in strengthening, it take a few hours to feel the land and with the speed it will make some ground. Serious concern for GA for those in mobile homes.
Brent
Member
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Storm chaser showing a crane swaying around.
https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/john.humphress.html
https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/john.humphress.html
Yellow Snow
Member
Gov. Deal just added additional counties to the existing State of Emergency:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Hopefully for everyone's sake this storm isn't all that bad. We need to closely watch the evolution of the precipitation shield and sfc wind verification upstream, won't take much to make things go downhill more than expected in areas like RDU & Charlotte as well as those close to the I-95 corridor.
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At this point upgrading to a Cat5 may be able to help those further inland. Not sure it makes much of a difference for those on the coast directly in its path
Reading the last VDM had SFMR of 138knts. Do they use possible contaminated readings in the VDM?
packfan98
Moderator
WeatherAddiction
Member
Too weak could easily allow it to produce some pretty high wind gusts up near hurricane force close to NCThe Euro initializes this way too weak at 961mb but here is the wind map based off that.
snowlover91
Member
We will find out in the post season whether this was a cat 4 or 5 once the data is analyzed, for now it looks like 919mb and 155mph is going to be the landfall strength. Let's focus on the impact for the rest of us in the path... because from what I can see a lot from FL to the Carolinas will see near hurricane force gusts which is a big deal considering all the trees and power outages this will cause over a large area.
Snownut
Member
Can someone tell me what the MPH is referring to in the super res velocity, and how you can tell if it's at surface vs heights?
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EURO literally brings the eye, and yes I said EYE and that's very rare to say this far inland, over my house!
With a 155 mph hurricane, I'm guessing gusts were at least 170 mph. But what are the odds that there were any actual observations that measured winds of 155 mph+ ?
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Brick Tamland
Guest
The max gust for RDU during Florence was 47 mph.
NoSnowATL
Member
I think ATL might see some Gust around 50 based on the correct path and mph. Unfortunately it starts here when most people will be sleeping. 2amish it looks like.
What could Columbia SC see many meteorologists here are calling for gust only up to 50mph and 2-4 inches of rain??
ok, so just saying.....we have all said this before the last 48 hours, but I am honestly in awe of all this. How about this...the tops are still cooling even over land....I know it can happen over like marsh land, but dang.....
whatalife
Moderator
ok, so just saying.....we have all said this before the last 48 hours, but I am honestly in awe of all this. How about this...the tops are still cooling even over land....I know it can happen over like marsh land, but dang.....
Very impressive!
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
I wonder how long the eye will maintain itself. Looks pretty good now and models have been showing an eye in GA.
Kylo
Member
RAH is calling for 20-30mph gusts, at least in my grid. They seem to do a pretty good job with this stuff I would think.
BHS1975
Member
Yeah that’s typically what we get from storms coming up from the sw.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
First tornado warning is out.
euro rolls and intact eye, from what I can tell, right over my house overnight.
tractor girl
Member
Any chance this could stray further north than previously expected?
snowlover91
Member
From what I can tell it looks like most stations were knocked offline/destroyed that were in the eyewall. Panama City on the west side reported 100mph sustained I believe. Most likely the gusts in the worst locations were 150-160mph but it's hard to get an accurate read when the stations in the eyewall are knocked out.
RollTide18
Member
ok, so just saying.....we have all said this before the last 48 hours, but I am honestly in awe of all this. How about this...the tops are still cooling even over land....I know it can happen over like marsh land, but dang.....
This storm just has me speechless, literally everything has been thrown at this storm, cool pools, shear, dry air, cold front, and land and it's just brushed it off.