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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

There is a ton of dry air in the upper levels over the gulf, that hopefully will slow intensification somewhat
 
Congrats Mack you're in the bullseye 5 days out. LOL.
205519_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
 
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen, located over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea just east of the Yucatan Peninsula.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

2. A non-tropical low pressure system, located about midway between the
Azores and the Canary Islands, is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms, along with winds to near
gale force mainly north of the center. The low could gradually
acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics over the next few
days while the system moves generally eastward and remains over warm
waters. By Wednesday, however, environmental conditions are expected
to become unfavorable for any significant development to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
 
6E0B0FC1-0B65-4C80-96B1-9F06C1E06F49.png B Rad already saying no problems! I don’t know why he irks me so much , but he does!
 
Tarheel1 said:
View attachment 6704 B Rad already saying no problems! I don’t know why he irks me so much , but he does!
Click to expand...
It’s 10X worse in the winter. Me and my friend were having this same conversation last night. He’s got to see the first inch fall and first creek out of the bank before he’s on board.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
It’s 10X worse in the winter. Me and my friend were having this same conversation last night. He’s got to see the first inch fall and first creek out of the bank before he’s on board.
Click to expand...
I think it’s the fact that he almost speaks in absolutes. Like the above statement. How does he know how fast it will moving, or how strong it will be? If it’s stronger and moves fast, then wind would be a problem? It’s like he’s contradicting his self! Just as the models were off 3 categories on Florence, what if they are 2-3 categories too low for Michael!?
 
F51CEDC8-C816-457B-B312-497AAA6ADA61.png Here’s this
 
D5F8AA4B-4709-45FE-AAB5-3A6EA6D61B9E.png 0z GFS forecast for Thursday Oct 11th! Still looking great for rain, imby
 
Really hope this strengthening trend stops, I don't need this at all
 
Water temps are running a bit cooler and their will be some midlevel shear as well and dry air near shore. I don’t see this one getting that strong.

55b1a2b9ceb7f760e298d2fd963de105.png



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BHS1975 said:
Water temps are running a bit cooler and their will be some midlevel shear as well and dry air near shore. I don’t see this one getting that strong.

55b1a2b9ceb7f760e298d2fd963de105.png
Click to expand...


Your SST analysis with regard to this TC is deceptive imo. Why? First of all, the projected track is well west of those very slightly below normal blue colors off SW FL (which by the way are still ~83 F). The models/NHC track is way out in the Gulf near 87W, which is within the warmer than normal area. I checked SSTs out in the middle of the Gulf where this TC is projected to track and they are way up in the bathwater 29-30C (84-86F) range, which is normal for August/early Sep! Backing this up is a buoy at 26.0N, 85.6W which is at a whopping 85F or near 29.5C! Normal by this late in the season is down to only ~82F. Furthermore, the most notable thing is that SSTs from there northward all the way up to the FL Panhandle are in the 84-85 F (29-29.5C) range. Backing this up are a buoy at 28.8N, 86.0W, which is at 84 F, and Panama City Beach, which is at 85 F. By now, they should have cooled off from summer highs a decent number of degrees. Instead, thanks to the incredibly persistent heat in Sep and early Oct, they remain near summer highs! What's normal there now? Only ~80 and often by now they're in the high 70s! So, they're running some 5 F warmer than normal, which is likely at record warmth for early Oct. Even the normal for mid Sep is only ~83.

This means that shear (which the GFS and Euro have as quite light by the way) and dry air will have to be relied on to keep this in check as SSTs certainly won't do so like they often can in October in the northern Gulf. Instead, this TC is going to be crossing Gulf SSTs all the way to FL that are about as warm or warmer than that of any TC on record that has crossed this area during Oct. 9-11. Hopefully the models are properly taking this into account.

Normals for Oct:​

SSTOctNormals .gif

In contrast, current SSTs are 29-30C (the bright green) in practically the entire GOM, which is not at all a normal situation there in early Oct:
GulfSSTsOct52018.gif
 
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Also 0z and 6z models suite have shift storm more east and southward maybe the idea of coming into Fl and riding Carolina Coast is not unrealistic.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Yea. You would think it should be a depression by that point considering many hours over land.
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What's worrying is the fact the low maintains a low pressure over land on every model. Maybe someone here can explain how this is even possible? My guess is something involving the massive heat we have in place combined with the incoming trough that is supposed to push it out. Probably the heat isn't as much, but the trough is probably pushing against the SER with to be Michael in between, keeping the pressure tight and low.
 
ForsythSnow said:
What's worrying is the fact the low maintains a low pressure over land on every model. Maybe someone here can explain how this is even possible? My guess is something involving the massive heat we have in place combined with the incoming trough that is supposed to push it out. Probably the heat isn't as much, but the trough is probably pushing against the SER with to be Michael in between, keeping the pressure tight and low.
Click to expand...
The forward speed of the storm once inland is allowing it to stay strong. Similar thing happened to Hugo which allowed it to stay a hurrricane even up into Charlotte.
 
GaWx said:
Your SST analysis with regard to this TC is deceptive imo. Why? First of all, the projected track is well west of those very slightly below normal blue colors off SW FL (which by the way are still ~83 F). The models/NHC track is way out in the Gulf near 87W, which is within the warmer than normal area. I checked SSTs out in the middle of the Gulf where this TC is projected to track and they are way up in the bathwater 29-30C (84-86F) range, which is normal for August/early Sep! Backing this up is a buoy at 26.0N, 85.6W which is at a whopping 85F or near 29.5C! Normal by this late in the season is down to only ~82F. Furthermore, the most notable thing is that SSTs from there northward all the way up to the FL Panhandle are in the 84-85 F (29-29.5C) range. Backing this up are a buoy at 28.8N, 86.0W, which is at 84 F, and Panama City Beach, which is at 85 F. By now, they should have cooled off from summer highs a decent number of degrees. Instead, thanks to the incredibly persistent heat in Sep and early Oct, they remain near summer highs! What's normal there now? Only ~80 and often by now they're in the high 70s! So, they're running some 5 F warmer than normal, which is likely at record warmth for early Oct. Even the normal for mid Sep is only ~83.

This means that shear (which the GFS and Euro have as quite light by the way) and dry air will have to be relied on to keep this in check as SSTs certainly won't do so like they often can in October in the northern Gulf. Instead, this TC is going to be crossing Gulf SSTs all the way to FL that are about as warm or warmer than that of any TC on record that has crossed this area during Oct. 9-11. Hopefully the models are properly taking this into account.

Normals for Oct:​

View attachment 6712

In contrast, current SSTs are 29-30C (the bright green) in practically the entire GOM, which is not at all a normal situation there in early Oct:
View attachment 6713
Click to expand...

Oh ok that anomaly map is a bit misleading. Not sure why there should be any blue at all.


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