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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

Tarheel1 said:
That’s the track I need right there!! When’s the soonest they would maybe send in a plane??
Click to expand...

Looks like Sunday afternoon

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL
INVEST IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR
17.5N 86.5W FOR 07/1800Z.

A broad area of low pressure centered near the northeastern coast
of Honduras is drifting northwestward and producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity from Central America
east-northeastward across the Western Caribbean to Hispaniola.
Although strong winds aloft persist just to the north of the
system, the upper-level environment is expected to be conducive
enough to allow slow development. A tropical depression could
form by late this weekend or early next week over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico while the system moves northwestward
to northward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains primarily to
portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula during the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
Navgem FWIW

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_21.png
 
Never gets it much further north than Columbus. Meanders thru south GA then back out into the Atlantic
 
The TWC hurricane guy says he expects the NHC to up the percentages to go up from 70%, at the 8pm update!
 
metwannabe said:
Euro brings some strong winds inland, in fact stronger inland than along the coast....

ecmwf_max_gust_georgia_168.png
Click to expand...
I know it’s a model run, but the Euro grossly overestimated the wind gusts in Florence on the high side. They were showing my area with some 60+ mph gusts, and highest we got was like 29. Just an observation, as we get closer to landfall
 
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 5 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. Surface observations and satellite data indicate that a broad area
of low pressure is centered near the coast of Honduras. This system
is producing a large area of disturbed weather extending from
Central America east-northeastward across the Western Caribbean to
Hispaniola. Environmental conditions are expected to become more
favorable for development, and a tropical depression will likely
form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of
Mexico by late this weekend or early next week while the system
moves slowly toward the northwest and north. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, this disturbance will continue to bring
torrential rains primarily to portions of Central America, and these
rains should then spread over western Cuba and the Yucatan peninsula
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Avila
 
Is there even a historical comp for the track that I'm seeing? Seems weird to me. But I might be missing an analog that was like that track.
 
0z icon west from 18z. CMC still landfall in La, 12z EURO pensacola area, FV3 still loading and navy not out yet. As of now, gfs is the furthest east
 
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