Tropical Major Hurricane Michael
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
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Euro 12z moved landfall at 12z on the 11th with Ukmet, but waaayyyy weaker and slightly west. It also moves east not quite to the coast moving through the Carolinas.
Also slow out of the gate at the Yuc/Cuba passage at noon on Monday.
Also slow out of the gate at the Yuc/Cuba passage at noon on Monday.
Euro further NW of its run last night so it appears the UK is on an island by itself right now.
Yes it is, my bad. In my head I was thinking it’s NW of UK but it just didn’t come out like that when I typed it lol.
That point in particular is but the route the two take in getting there is not nearly the same.
They look similar to me, timing differences. Euro is slower. Nothing like the GFS if that’s what you mean.
Just appears Euro gets it further north into central Georgia before heading NE.
Going back in the thread, Ukmet 12z on 10/5, has the exact spot as Euro today st 12z. Ukmet was 965. Maybe everybody running to catch up with it? Leader is an island? Haha
The FV3 has the storm strongest of all its runs so far and strengthening at landfall. Would rock me here.
I'm leaning toward higher intensity level. 2 to 3 days over hot water with no shear and the trough taking control. I hope I'm wrong.
I think it depends on size and speed. While the water is warm, TCHP is low across the GOM. A small and fast hurricane could strengthen decently, but a larger and slower storm will have issues with upwelling.
Ironically, UKMET is 949, while HWRF is 945. That is scary....
Also, the same conditions existed with Opal, Eloise, Agnes, and Florence. See global model thread.
If you name the biggest weather events in AL that people remember, you get 4/27 and the Superstorm, then you have Opal. The thing whipped us in East AL.
Of course the models have gotten worse for this storm overall. The EPS likes the idea of it passing though GA with some strength, the HWRF is probably too strong, the GFS and FV3 have a TS through here, as does the NAVGEM. If you made a cone out of the models, ATL is in the direct path as is the W panhandle and AL mostly. Given the looks, we will have a depression by tonight or tomorrow morning.
ATL needs the rain so I hope it goes right over us. My grass is like pine straw right now.Of course the models have gotten worse for this storm overall. The EPS likes the idea of it passing though GA with some strength, the HWRF is probably too strong, the GFS and FV3 have a TS through here, as does the NAVGEM. If you made a cone out of the models, ATL is in the direct path as is the W panhandle and AL mostly. Given the looks, we will have a depression by tonight or tomorrow morning.
Big shift west there from the 12Z product.Of course the models have gotten worse for this storm overall. The EPS likes the idea of it passing though GA with some strength, the HWRF is probably too strong, the GFS and FV3 have a TS through here, as does the NAVGEM. If you made a cone out of the models, ATL is in the direct path as is the W panhandle and AL mostly. Given the looks, we will have a depression by tonight or tomorrow morning.