2 main concentrations of tracks, the 1 cluster showing up over I-95 area of NC/SC, would be worst case scenario!I’d prefer the NGA grouping, for mby!
Tropical Major Hurricane Michael
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2 main concentrations of tracks, the 1 cluster showing up over I-95 area of NC/SC, would be worst case scenario!I’d prefer the NGA grouping, for mby!
For the sake of Eastern NC, I hope this doesn't end up tracking to where they get more heavy rain.
12z FV3 is almost lock step with the 12z GFS FWIW
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FWIW.....FV3 appears about 12 hours faster in timing. Depending on the movement of the high seems like that might open a window that GFS should be further east.....
WOW! I'm praying this is not in anyone's future! But I believe this is the path. Hoping something knocks back the intensity.
Btw....thanks for sharing UK! Looks like slower members are further east, which makes sense with front pushing through.
Looks like we will know if its slowing down at noon on Monday. The faster runs have it already passed through between Yuk and Cuba passage by then. The more eastern paths, have it still sitting there at noon on Monday.
Getting some blowup closer to the center.
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2:00 pm
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.
1. Satellite imagery, surface observations, and radar data from Belize
indicate that an area of low pressure is centered just north of the
Bay Islands of Honduras. The associated showers and thunderstorms
show signs of organization, however, the system does not yet have a
well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to
become gradually more conducive for further development, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday
or Monday while the system moves slowly northward. Interests in the
Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and the northern coast of the Gulf
of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during the next
several days. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains to portions of
Central America, the Yucatan peninsula, and western Cuba into next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Forecaster Beven
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.
1. Satellite imagery, surface observations, and radar data from Belize
indicate that an area of low pressure is centered just north of the
Bay Islands of Honduras. The associated showers and thunderstorms
show signs of organization, however, the system does not yet have a
well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to
become gradually more conducive for further development, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday
or Monday while the system moves slowly northward. Interests in the
Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and the northern coast of the Gulf
of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during the next
several days. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains to portions of
Central America, the Yucatan peninsula, and western Cuba into next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Forecaster Beven
Oh my look at that 2nd precip max in WNC. That’s not good that upslope flow is already showing up on global models. That tends to be undermodeled.
Well, got missed N / NE by Florence, only seems right to get missed to the S/SE by Michael!
You will make up for it this winter with all the snow you will get.
