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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

979F9737-E632-401F-8ABA-04F7146AD7D1.png 2 main concentrations of tracks, the 1 cluster showing up over I-95 area of NC/SC, would be worst case scenario!
I’d prefer the NGA grouping, for mby!
 
Storm5 said:
12z FV3 is almost lock step with the 12z GFS FWIW


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FWIW.....FV3 appears about 12 hours faster in timing. Depending on the movement of the high seems like that might open a window that GFS should be further east.....
 
2:00 pm



Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. Satellite imagery, surface observations, and radar data from Belize
indicate that an area of low pressure is centered just north of the
Bay Islands of Honduras. The associated showers and thunderstorms
show signs of organization, however, the system does not yet have a
well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to
become gradually more conducive for further development, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday
or Monday while the system moves slowly northward. Interests in the
Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and the northern coast of the Gulf
of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during the next
several days. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains to portions of
Central America, the Yucatan peninsula, and western Cuba into next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Beven
 
12z GEFS

AL91_2018100612_GEFS_large.png
 
8A4C351D-059E-4455-83C0-4487D0677976.png Euro looking good!
 
Euro 12z moved landfall at 12z on the 11th with Ukmet, but waaayyyy weaker and slightly west. It also moves east not quite to the coast moving through the Carolinas.
Also slow out of the gate at the Yuc/Cuba passage at noon on Monday.
 
Henry2326 said:
Euro 12z moved landfall at 12z on the 11th with Ukmet, but waaayyyy weaker and slightly west. It also moves east not quite to the coast moving through the Carolinas.
Also slow out of the gate at the Yuc/Cuba passage at noon on Monday.
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Euro further NW of its run last night so it appears the UK is on an island by itself right now.
 
The FV3 has the storm strongest of all its runs so far and strengthening at landfall. Would rock me here.
 
Arcc said:
The FV3 has the storm strongest of all its runs so far and strengthening at landfall. Would rock me here.
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I'm leaning toward higher intensity level. 2 to 3 days over hot water with no shear and the trough taking control. I hope I'm wrong.
 
Henry2326 said:
I'm leaning toward higher intensity level. 2 to 3 days over hot water with no shear and the trough taking control. I hope I'm wrong.
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I think it depends on size and speed. While the water is warm, TCHP is low across the GOM. A small and fast hurricane could strengthen decently, but a larger and slower storm will have issues with upwelling.
 
Henry2326 said:
I'm leaning toward higher intensity level. 2 to 3 days over hot water with no shear and the trough taking control. I hope I'm wrong.
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6Z and 12Z HWRF would be just that FWIW. Here is the 0Z MOGAPS as well. hwrf_mslp_wind_91L_32.png ukmet ens.png
 
Henry2326 said:
Ironically, UKMET is 949, while HWRF is 945. That is scary....

Also, the same conditions existed with Opal, Eloise, Agnes, and Florence. See global model thread.
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If you name the biggest weather events in AL that people remember, you get 4/27 and the Superstorm, then you have Opal. The thing whipped us in East AL.
 
Of course the models have gotten worse for this storm overall. The EPS likes the idea of it passing though GA with some strength, the HWRF is probably too strong, the GFS and FV3 have a TS through here, as does the NAVGEM. If you made a cone out of the models, ATL is in the direct path as is the W panhandle and AL mostly. Given the looks, we will have a depression by tonight or tomorrow morning.
91L_tracks_latest.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Of course the models have gotten worse for this storm overall. The EPS likes the idea of it passing though GA with some strength, the HWRF is probably too strong, the GFS and FV3 have a TS through here, as does the NAVGEM. If you made a cone out of the models, ATL is in the direct path as is the W panhandle and AL mostly. Given the looks, we will have a depression by tonight or tomorrow morning.
91L_tracks_latest.png
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ATL needs the rain so I hope it goes right over us. My grass is like pine straw right now.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Of course the models have gotten worse for this storm overall. The EPS likes the idea of it passing though GA with some strength, the HWRF is probably too strong, the GFS and FV3 have a TS through here, as does the NAVGEM. If you made a cone out of the models, ATL is in the direct path as is the W panhandle and AL mostly. Given the looks, we will have a depression by tonight or tomorrow morning.
91L_tracks_latest.png
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Big shift west there from the 12Z product.
 
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