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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

metwannabe said:
Even if it's over doing it, which in my opinion it probably is, but even if you knock 15 or 20 miles per hour off of that still going to be issues.

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Yeah normally I would say it's overdone but the 3km NAM also lends support to this idea of an intense backside band, it just shows a little lower winds of 60-75mph in that band instead of the 75-95mph that the HRRR is showing. 850mb winds will be plenty strong at 70-90kts in this band so assuming the dry air helps with mixing this down to the surface... it could get pretty bad.
hrrr_mslp_uv850_seus_12.png
 
This has been a hell of a storm. Driving rain. Just relentless. Sun should be out soon
 
What we need to watch is the winds in Charlotte and Asheville the next few hours. The HRRR has things really ramping up there quickly and peaking in Charlotte between 1-3pm. IF the HRRR is right I would expect Charlotte to see winds gusting 60-80mph.
 
Wind spiking rapidly in Shelby, NC. This is a key area to watch as in just a few hours they should be gusting 50-80mph if models are correct with the backside band.
time_chart.cgi
 
Its important to track the process that drives these winds.
The HRRR is hinting at the lower levels going Dry Adiabatic. This could allow the upper level winds to filter down in the form of gusts at near 100% effectiveness.
dry air.png
This is the driving factor behind our winds. It is a fairly rare event across our area. It is also highly volatile and unpredictable.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Its important to track the process that drives these winds.
The HRRR is hinting at the lower levels going Dry Adiabatic. This could allow the upper level winds to filter down in the form of gusts at near 100% effectiveness.
View attachment 6949
This is the driving factor behind our winds. It is a fairly rare event across our area. It is also highly volatile and unpredictable.
Click to expand...
Awesome info and welcome to the board!
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Its important to track the process that drives these winds.
The HRRR is hinting at the lower levels going Dry Adiabatic. This could allow the upper level winds to filter down in the form of gusts at near 100% effectiveness.
View attachment 6949
This is the driving factor behind our winds. It is a fairly rare event across our area. It is also highly volatile and unpredictable.
Click to expand...

Glad to see you finally joined Preston! The 3km NAM is running now and new HRRR run as well, winds are spiking in western nc right now so everything appears on track.
 
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 409
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
955 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

TORNADO WATCH 409 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NCC001-013-015-017-019-029-031-033-037-041-047-049-051-053-055-
057-061-063-065-067-069-073-077-079-081-083-085-091-095-101-103-
105-107-117-127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-151-157-
163-177-181-183-185-187-191-195-120100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0409.181011T1355Z-181012T0100Z/

NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALAMANCE BEAUFORT BERTIE
BLADEN BRUNSWICK CAMDEN
CARTERET CASWELL CHATHAM
CHOWAN COLUMBUS CRAVEN
CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE
DAVIDSON DUPLIN DURHAM
EDGECOMBE FORSYTH FRANKLIN
GATES GRANVILLE GREENE
GUILFORD HALIFAX HARNETT
HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON
JONES LEE LENOIR
MARTIN NASH NEW HANOVER
NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW ORANGE
PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PENDER
PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT
RANDOLPH ROCKINGHAM SAMPSON
TYRRELL VANCE WAKE
WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE
WILSON
$$
 
The 12km NAM is showing 925mb winds of 70kts in this band. It's not hard to believe the forecast of 60-80mph gusts being modeled with winds this strong so close to the surface and mixing down due to some dry air.
925mb.JPG
 
Center of circulation is coming across state line, right over union county looks like , east of Charlotte. Pinwheeling alot of heavy rain across western piedmont into foothills and mtns. Lot of lift going on and its wringing every drop possible out. Wind gust at 10:15 where in the 30s across state line
 
Saw this on Twitter, flooding in Boone
NCSNOW said:
Center of circulation is coming across state line, right over union countu looks like , east of Charlotte. Ponwheeling alot of heavy rain across western piedmont into foothills and mtns. Lot of lift going on and its wringing every drop possible out. Wind gust at 10:15 where in the 30s across state line
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78c90c3d64a6641fda5228570f9b395c.jpg


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Aerial footage of Mexico beach is bad. All bad. Looks like A giant EF3 moved through
 
metwannabe said:
Saw this on Twitter, flooding in Boone
78c90c3d64a6641fda5228570f9b395c.jpg


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They are on Fall break today and tommorow thankfully. Just hope the leaves dont get stripped. They are late and will turn quick this upcoming week now that fall weather will finally arrive. Bet the Boone mall is a swiming pool,always is during FF.
 
NHC said in their discussion that there have been numerous reports of 40-50kt gust in central and eastern SC, not doubting them at all but anybody on here feel those or had any issues?
 
metwannabe said:
NHC said in their discussion that there have been numerous reports of 40-50kt gust in central and eastern SC, not doubting them at all but anybody on here feel those or had any issues?
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That sounds about right. I checked through a lot of SC stations and most recorded peak gusts 45-55mph range. Here's a link to check the stations, just change it to SC and hit refresh map, then click on the station you want and it shows the peak gust.
https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/mesomap.cgi?state=NC&rawsflag=3
 
Quite a few stations in southern NC gusting near or just above TS force. Shelby NC now gusting to 37mph and is a key one to watch along with areas near Charlotte.
 
Statesville, NC gusting near TS force now. Everything is lining up quite well with the 3km and HRRR so far. Next few hours are key. Saw a report of 52mph gust in Zirconia, NC as well just south of the Hendersonville area.
 
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