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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

Anyone think this thing comes more west/ north?? I know the models are pretty set in their track.. but what is it I have heard before about intense hurricanes creating their own environment??? Can someone explain what that means?? Or is that an old wives tale?
 
Shawn said:
With the current rapid intensification of Michael and the likely Category 4 strength (unofficial), what can be said about the "diurnal max" with this setup over night?
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Usually in a mature hurricane it doesn’t influence a storm much. Cloud tops may cool some but it doesn’t seem like Michael has issues with that lol. There is enough data here for the NHC to probably upgrade at 8 to 130mph since the pressure keeps dropping quickly.
 
Well I have concerns in that I have seen the "smaller" one in the GOM, tend to say to models/forecasters.."Hold my Beer...Watch This"...
Eloise... Opal... are the ones that come to mind... Both created significant wind impacts well inland...
 
mydoortotheworld said:
If Michael were to blow up this evening, let's hope that an ERC is squeezed in just as it makes landfall
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Unfortunately, I'm not confident we would have enough time for one to occur, Michael will be making landfall within the next 18hrs. If it's about to go through any form of RI soon, it's probably going to continue to increase in intensity up until landfall.

EDIT: While on the topic, South and east side of Michael is really blowing up right now on IR.
 
snowlover91 said:
Folks remember this image... because tomorrow this is going to be an absolute beast. The last time I saw a TC consistently maxing out the scale like this in the Atlantic was Wilma. Not saying it’ll get that strong at all but these extremely cold cloud tops wrapping completely around are extremely worrying. A high end cat 4 to low 5 is within the realm of possibility imo.
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I posted this last night... unfortunately it looks like my worst fears are coming true.
 
So I hear all the time that the stronger the hurricane, the more it wants / does get pulled poleward!? Wouldn’t that argue for a more northerly track?
 
Keep in mind a typical hurricane you use a reduction ratio of 85% to get surface winds from flight level. In extremely deep convection and RI it’s been found to sometimes be a 1:1 ratio where flight level winds mix down straight to the surface. Recon just found 124kts flight level winds up from about 110kts last pass.
 
Absolutely crazy. Eye clearing now. Definitely a pinhole.
goes16_ir_meso1_20181009232431.jpg
 
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