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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

blueheronNC said:
Did it have shear? That clear eye stadium effect at landfall was the best ever photographed from the ground of any hurricane on record.
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Yes and no. Michael was experiencing SW shear however as it made the turn NE it nullified most of it which is why it began strengthening rapidly at landfall.
 
06z
GFS. 949
ICON 956
HWRF 942
EURO 948. 00z
HMON 952
NAM 885
Just slightly west of last couple of runs....


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Welp....

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It's very close to wrapping the convection around it's core. This thing is going to take off today.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
The HWRF always has the most apocalyptic scenario
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Hmmmm....you did notice that it's only 6 point below the Euro and 7 from the GFS.? As well, it's been throwing these numbers for the last couple of days while the others have been vacillating all over the place. I wouldnt take it completely at face value but it tells us that in a specific set of conditions, this is what we can expect. Those conditions are coming upon us.....
 
I see the NAM is now down to 885mb at landfall which I’m pretty sure would be a record for the entire Atlantic Basin... it seems it wants to do the same thing with hurricane pressures that it does with QPF right before a SE winter storm... go way overboard
 
Henry2326 said:
Hmmmm....you did notice that it's only 6 point below the Euro and 7 from the GFS.? As well, it's been throwing these numbers for the last couple of days while the others have been vacillating all over the place. I wouldnt take it completely at face value but it tells us that in a specific set of conditions, this is what we can expect. Those conditions are coming upon us.....
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Yeah. It’s always got a buzzsaw depicted I guess is what I’m trying to say.
 
Brent said:
Oh I don't usually question them and I'm not now but its just concerning me that what if the EPS is onto something

They are probably right but seeing Marco shift so much in one advisory was kind of eye opening (obviously this isn't Marco but still)

Also on a selfish note I was in Galveston last month and hope to go back next year if it's not destroyed :p
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I love Padre Island too. So beautiful and serene (when there aren’t tourists). I have friends in Houston (she’s in Houston with the kids and he works on an oil rig in the Gulf) plus I have friends I was enlisted with that are stationed in Houston, Corpus Christi, Port Arthur, Galveston, Texas City, Brownsville, South Padre Island, and Victoria.

Edit: I’m a lapsed Catholic, but y’all please keep my friends in your thoughts (and prayers if you’re religious). I have a lot of former USCG shipmates that are still in down that way, plus a close friend whose family lives in Houston while he’s on an oil rig.
 
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Around the border of Louisiana/Texas i believe. But it’s already going further east then I thought it would.


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NCSNOW said:
Im going 939mb Galveston bay Landfall. LF could be 20-30 miles to the north of the bay. Thats my forecast.

Houston metro floods very easily. Hopefully folks are paying attn
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I’m trying to remember if Houston got a significant storm surge with Ike... I remember there was a lot of wind damage in downtown Houston with hundreds of windows blown out of skyscrapers, but it seems to me the whole news focus of the storm surge was on what happened to Galveston... which was devastating especially for a Category 2... I don’t want us to see what a cat 4 will do today coming in at the same angle.
 
Chazwin said:
I’m trying to remember if Houston got a significant storm surge with Ike... I remember there was a lot of wind damage in downtown Houston with hundreds of windows blown out of skyscrapers, but it seems to me the whole news focus of the storm surge was on what happened to Galveston... which was devastating especially for a Category 2... I don’t want us to see what a cat 4 will do today coming in at the same angle.
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Do you remember all the rain from Harvey and how the entire Houston Metropolitan Area was inundated and flooded?
 
NCSNOW said:
Im going 939mb Galveston bay Landfall. LF could be 20-30 miles to the north of the bay. Thats my forecast.

Houston metro floods very easily. Hopefully folks are paying attn
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And even more so with higher sea levels.


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