After a westward jog earlier, Laura is estimated to be moving
west-northwestward again or 290/15. The synoptic situation consists
over a large ridge near the southeastern United States and a
weakness in the ridge over Central Texas due to an inverted trough.
Laura should gradually gain latitude and turn to the northwest and
north-northwest over the next two days while it is steered between
those two features, move northward late this week through the
southern United States, then move quickly eastward across the
eastern U.S. over the weekend as it encounters the mid-latitude
westerlies. The majority of the guidance has shifted a notable
distance to the west on this run, perhaps due to a weaker trough
over Texas and a more westward initial position of Laura (possibly
due to persistent northerly mid-level shear). The new NHC
prediction is at the eastern edge of the new guidance envelope since
I don't want to bite off on such a large change on just one set of
model runs. But since the storm has been tracking west of forecast
expectations for quite some time, future westward track adjustments
could be required later today.
Laura is forecast to move over the very warm and deep waters of the
Gulf of Mexico, with similar or lighter shear conditions through
the next couple of days. Now that an inner core appears to be
trying to form, conditions appear ripe for at least steady
intensification, and rapid intensification is becoming more likely
before landfall. In fact, almost all of the explicit guidance
models, save the statistical-dynamical models, are showing a period
of rapid strengthening at some point during the next couple of days.
Thus, the new NHC forecast is higher than the last one, but not as
high as the most of the regional hurricane models since shear could
increase just before landfall.
