Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
I’m just surprised to see a model solution this far west into Texas... obviously it could very well be correct in the end, but it just looks to me like the Bermuda high should keep steering this thing and if it does the most likely outcome would be western or central Louisiana.
lexxnchloe
Member
I have a question for experts. If Marco fell apart because of bad contions why will laura get stronger in the same place?
Henry2326
Member
Lol.....in the past I would say "we will know 3 days prior"....now I say "we'll know the day before".....be ready for anything...
Brent
Member
Lol I mean the EPS is usually good though now granted the Euro has been horrible with this storm but it's always better to look at ensembles I'm not convinced one way or the other but look how much Marco shifted 2 days out it could still easily be Central Louisiana but I wouldn't write off Texas at all especially with the track having shifted south near Cuba since yesterday
I’m far from an expert, but I can say that the shearing that tore Marco apart earlier today is exiting the Gulf and an area of very calm winds aloft is moving in... that plus the water temperatures of 85-87 degrees throughout the Gulf is a perfect set up to intensify a hurricane rapidly.
lexxnchloe
Member
Thanks
Hurricane and storm surge watches issued for the Northwestern Gulf Coast.
NHC keeping the words “rapid strengthening” in the disc
Brent
Member
They mentioned the EPS being way left too
The latest runs of the dynamical models are in a
little better agreement, but the 1200 UTC ECMWF ensemble mean is
located considerably left of its deterministic run, indicating that
uncertainty regarding the track forecast remains
The latest runs of the dynamical models are in a
little better agreement, but the 1200 UTC ECMWF ensemble mean is
located considerably left of its deterministic run, indicating that
uncertainty regarding the track forecast remains
18z ICON has a 968 mb hurricane making landfall on the TX/LA border.
Shaggy
Member
Call me crazy but I'd be looking real hard at a ukmet ens and euro ensemble average. That tends to be a good combo 3 to 5 days out.
18z GFS is stronger and a bit west than the last run through 48 hours.
18z GFS has it making landfall as a 954 MB hurricane on the Louisiana coast.
Not only that, but the trough that killed Marco will give Laura a dang good northern outflow channel.
Henry2326
Member
18z Icon and GFS are practically the same as the last 2 runs.....and.....represented by an H on the NHC map....
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Looks like it's finally making the more northward turn. Also not sure if the mlc/llc might still be a little disjointed or the center may be a little elongated
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
The models are consistently showing a category 3 hurricane. I think we could see this get to 115 to 120 mph.
Henry2326
Member
18z HWRF.....slightly west compared to previous run.....aligned with Icon and GFS. 929 prior to landfall......staying consistent with the 930ish idea...
