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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
I'm not bashing anyone but for those living in flood prone areas you should monitor the national hurricane center and follow Laura closely. Screaming zero percent impacts on the top of your lungs on social media six days out is crazy whether they right or wrong. This was said 30 mins ago even after the latest NHC cone warns the majority of North Carolinian's could be impacted with flooding and tornadoes.
HWRF has it making landfall as a 934 MB hurricane on the Louisiana coast.
A couple things here. #1) The cone says nothing about flooding or tornado impacts. #2) The event is still several days away. It is way too early to be getting into specifics regarding impacts that far inland. It is much easier to slowly walk the impacts upward than it is to flip flop all over the place.
Henry2326
Member
12z HWRF identical to 06z other than 934 pressure compared to 931. It tracked on the south side of the islands and crosses over land coming off the island at 994, identical to GFS......Icon comes off at 1001 which is part of the variance in the pressure diiference.
I think you’re correct on this one and I don’t view this as bashing someone as much as questioning what they said. GSP mentions in its discussion this morning that the remnants will likely increase moisture and rain chances late in the week, and as has been discussed, a remnant low moving through Tennessee and the Carolinas could bring severe weather.
Can't say for sure but I think that center located to the west is starting to take over. Seeing more convective activity in that region vs the old center which has been devoid of any lightning activity for a couple hours.
Shaggy
Member
We all know intensity forecast are the hardest for NHC and the models to get right especially a storm thats interacting with land some what. It could very easily blow up or struggle to get an inner core.
This move to the south of Cuba ups its chances of cat 3 or better IMO.
At this point, assuming Laura doesn't interact much more with Cuba, I think TX/LA should prepare for AT LEAST a Cat 3 storm. Outside of a well-timed ERC or some unforeseen dry air punching the core, I don't see much impeding it's rapid intensification, once it's firmly in the GOM. Waters are quite warm, and I don't believe there will be too much shear to hinder it. An ERC may well be the best bet at capping intensity at landfall.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
The GFS looks to be a good middle of the road solution. ICON is weaker, HWRF is at the other extreme. A cat 3 seems reasonable.
Henry2326
Member
Yea, I'm expecting NHC to upgrade to a major later today or tomorrow. I said yesterday they need to wait and see how it comes off the island.
Henry2326
Member
Brent
Member
Euro in line with the other models finally lol but will it last? I'm still not 100 percent sold on anything there is a good consensus at the moment on around the border or SW LA though
accu35
Member
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Come on man!!! What about other places that's not NC that are fixing to get hit the hardest?? I understand your concern about your town but theres more than yours
Hmmm, maybe some weak shear close to landfall all though it’s not much 
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Euro and GFS very close to each other with the intensity and not too far off from each other with the track.
Henry2326
Member
This timing is running with ICON.....GFS and HWRF stay over water longer.
The keys are already seeing a couple of noticeable wind gusts from the outer bands. I saw a report of a 70 mph wind gust in Key west.
With center south of Cuba... makes you wonder if their could be a more expansive wind field as it strengthens than what models are indicating
Brent
Member
So much for that Louisiana consensus
