Interesting, uni flow and skinny cape tho, that’s a low topped sup/QLCS type sounding there from Laura’s remnants, kinda depends on timing to 
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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
The chances of a cat 3/4+ have went up significantly imo with it missing most of Cuba and entering bath water off the coast of Texas also my opinion. This looks worst case scenario for Texas
Brent
Member
The conservative NHC is even openly mentioning RI
Given the very conducive upper-level wind pattern
depicted by the global models, a period of rapid strengthening is
possible once Laura re-organizes an inner core after its passage
over western Cuba.
Given the very conducive upper-level wind pattern
depicted by the global models, a period of rapid strengthening is
possible once Laura re-organizes an inner core after its passage
over western Cuba.
Generally speaking, looking at the steering currents, is it safe to presume that the stronger Laura gets the further west she will track, and the weaker she stays, the further east she will track?
Not formally educated, just avid enthusiast and trying to make sense of the steering current maps so excuse my ignorance. I see different pressure values for different elevations, which is what I am basing my question off of.
Not formally educated, just avid enthusiast and trying to make sense of the steering current maps so excuse my ignorance. I see different pressure values for different elevations, which is what I am basing my question off of.
GFS has it making landfall as a 959 mb hurricane on the Lousiana coast.
Very intriguing center fix there
Brent
Member
UKMET shifted east into Southwest Louisiana 954 mb before landfall
I'm still questioning if the center fix is right
I'm still questioning if the center fix is right
Henry2326
Member
Henry2326
Member
Henry2326
Member
12z ICON slightly east of last forecast and slightly weaker at 972. It running slightly faster than GFS....
Henry2326
Member
12z GFS ...only change from 06Z is 959 pressure rather than 954.
Honestly think that’s the most realistic scenario
Small scale atmospheric differences that could prevent Laura from RI. She is going over a cold spot of water. I don't expect her to be significantly affected by this but it goes to show GOM is not as primed as it is made out to be. While the sea surface temperatures are great the oceanic heat content is not fantastic everywhere.
Attachments
Brad still going with no impacts even with the remnants here in NC
He may be right, but i think there's a decent shot at northern NC feeling a few impacts.
Henry2326
Member
ICON is and has been running faster than GFS and HWRF by about 12 hours. This version shortened tO 6 hours. The rapid intensification in the GFS happens in the last 12 hours before landfall.....
So if it the storm runs quicker, we get an Icon result.
If it runs slower we get a GFS/HWRF result.
All three are ending up in the same general area.
TCHP is plenty to support a top tier hurricane. It actually is pretty high for the GOM as a whole vs average. The first image is a few days ago and the second is while Michael was brewing.
Worst case is Laura does the Harvey/Michael impression where it bumbles about for a few days with only slow intensification and never really hits a massive RIC until close to land.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
GSP discussion.....The remnants
of tropical cyclones Laura and Marco will bring higher levels of
moisture and increased precipitation chances to the area by late week
Way healthier look than this morning
