• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

Storm looks like it is leveling off with pressure leveling out some. Looks like landfall will probably be somewhere in the 150mph 935-938mb range. The town of Cameron is going to get hammered.

IR and radar refl is looking better in the NE quad over the past 45 mins but agree with landfalling MB range and upper end Cat 4. Radar does indicate some late stage tightening of the eyewall.
 
IMO not enough to upgrade this to a cat 5. I'd want to see pressure continuing to fall and flight level winds 150-155kts to consider it being a cat 5. The S side of the storm is looking much healthier on radar recently, maybe one last push to get there but probably will maintain where it is until landfall.
 
NOAA2 1st pass did find flight level winds of 145kts on the graph, however it doesn't appear to have translated well to the surface...looks like I'm seeing unflagged 125kts on SMFR...

Yeah with the southern half of the system rapidly improving based on the Houston radar it might see another pressure drop and wind increase... especially if that southern eyewall can go from 30-40dbz up to 50+dbz like the northern one is.
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LAURA CLOSING IN ON THE NORTHWEST
GULF COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 93.2W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES
 
Yeah with the southern half of the system rapidly improving based on the Houston radar it might see another pressure drop and wind increase... especially if that southern eyewall can go from 30-40dbz up to 50+dbz like the northern one is.

Yeah, it looked like Laura ingested some land air with the mid level undercut of shear that tried to infiltrate into the core, which might be getting burped out now...
She also slowed a bit to 13mph...down from 15 earlier..
 
916
URNT15 KNHC 270319
AF300 2513A LAURA HDOB 28 20200827
031030 2906N 09316W 6968 02625 9330 +242 +066 221006 016 027 001 03
031100 2907N 09318W 6976 02612 9335 +232 +090 038011 016 032 001 00
031130 2908N 09320W 6963 02634 9356 +214 +103 032031 035 047 001 00
031200 2909N 09321W 6975 02638 9386 +202 +104 023053 061 075 002 03
031230 2910N 09323W 6966 02674 9425 +184 +119 021072 078 115 005 00
031300 2911N 09325W 6961 02707 9514 +142 //// 017070 079 125 001 01
031330 2912N 09326W 6944 02758 9570 +146 +146 030083 098 122 025 03
031400 2912N 09328W 6971 02791 9646 +142 +142 035111 117 111 054 03
031430 2913N 09330W 6990 02803 9684 +142 +142 034109 116 109 058 00
031500 2914N 09331W 6963 02859 9719 +131 +131 036111 113 092 064 00
031530 2915N 09333W 6970 02879 9756 +123 +123 037106 115 087 061 00
031600 2916N 09334W 6995 02871 9799 +112 +112 036097 103 081 047 00
031630 2917N 09336W 6967 02929 9812 +118 +118 036097 099 078 029 00
031700 2917N 09338W 6968 02952 9828 +118 +118 042095 097 077 016 00
031730 2918N 09340W 6974 02961 9852 +119 +119 041095 098 075 017 00
031800 2919N 09341W 6982 02970 9873 +119 +119 038085 091 072 021 00
031830 2920N 09343W 6968 02999 9886 +112 +112 039073 080 070 015 00
031900 2921N 09345W 6961 03025 9875 +118 //// 039072 073 066 007 01
031930 2922N 09347W 6966 03028 9879 +118 +116 039066 071 064 006 00
032000 2923N 09349W 6972 03036 9887 +118 +113 041062 064 062 006 00
$$
Pressure down to 933 mb.
 
Hey uh what
recon_NOAA2-2413A-LAURA_dropsonde30_20200827-0252.png
 
Back
Top