• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

Forward speed could be a limiting factor with respect to intensification, 10-15mph is ideal for RI, 20mph is booking it. Granted there are corner cases. The central Gulf UL anticyclone looks solid but not as robust compared to 1-2 days ago. Just saying.
 
Rain Cold said:
Except, this time, conditions in the Gulf have looked favorable for solid intensification. I am really concerned that a particularly dire situation developing. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this is sub 940 and strengthening into the coast, unless some miracle dry air appears or it interacts more than expected with Cuba or we get an ERC close to shore.
Click to expand...

Yeah I am not in disagreement that the squrriel hasnt found a nut in this case. Not seeing much from stopping this once it gets clear of Cuba other than ERC timing.

Maybe I'm being overly cynical but the HWRF seems to blow up lots of storms into these monsters.
 
BHS1975 said:
They have been dead on with the tracks the last few years.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Oh I don't usually question them and I'm not now but its just concerning me that what if the EPS is onto something

They are probably right but seeing Marco shift so much in one advisory was kind of eye opening (obviously this isn't Marco but still)

Also on a selfish note I was in Galveston last month and hope to go back next year if it's not destroyed :p
 
Shaggy said:
Yeah I am not in disagreement that the squrriel hasnt found a nut in this case. Not seeing much from stopping this once it gets clear of Cuba other than ERC timing.

Maybe I'm being overly cynical but the HWRF seems to blow up lots of storms into these monsters.
Click to expand...

Yeah. I think that's what it's meant to do. It gets praise when storms bomb out cause it sees those optimal conditions. I think we now have those conditions in place.
 
Shaggy said:
Yeah I am not in disagreement that the squrriel hasnt found a nut in this case. Not seeing much from stopping this once it gets clear of Cuba other than ERC timing.

Maybe I'm being overly cynical but the HWRF seems to blow up lots of storms into these monsters.
Click to expand...
Keep in mind we may never get an ERC too. I forget, but I think either Harvey and/or Michael never saw one.
 
Tornadocane said:
Yeah. I think that's what it's meant to do. It gets praise when storms bomb out cause it sees those optimal conditions. I think we now have those conditions in place.
Click to expand...
To your point, the goal is to give folks perspective.....they want an answer to the question "how bad can this be, so I can decide how to prepare or leave".....This model has been throwing bombs for a couple days which sends a message and why the NHC continued adding language about the possibility of rapid intensification.
 
Rain Cold said:
Except, this time, conditions in the Gulf have looked favorable for solid intensification. I am really concerned that a particularly dire situation developing. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this is sub 940 and strengthening into the coast, unless some miracle dry air appears or it interacts more than expected with Cuba or we get an ERC close to shore.
Click to expand...

If I were a betting man I’d bet we see it lower than 940mb at some time if the upper level environment stays good. Lots of history supports this in this region. Landfall is a different matter.
 
Tornadocane said:
Yeah. I think that's what it's meant to do. It gets praise when storms bomb out cause it sees those optimal conditions. I think we now have those conditions in place.
Click to expand...

Yeah but just with Marco it had a beast hitting the yucatan. Like i said if it does this with every storm why praise it the one time it has a chance at being right......I guess thats my point.
 
Would hitting houston be the worst case scenario here? From what i know its very prone to flooding.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Keep in mind we may never get an ERC too. I forget, but I think either Harvey and/or Michael never saw one.
Click to expand...
It was Michael... I remember it just steadily strengthened for several days and then within about 6 or 7 hours of landfall just started to blow up, and you just waited to see an ERC that would knock cause the pressure to jump 20 mb and it just never came
 
Looks as if the eye of laura is over water now. Its a wait and see game now wether this thing bombs out.
 
Does anyone know if they are having trouble with flying in Cuban airspace? I know in years past we could not get Recon data over there.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top