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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

Henry2326 said:
18z HWRF.....slightly west compared to previous run.....aligned with Icon and GFS. 929 prior to landfall......staying consistent with the 930ish idea...

View attachment 47156
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Add ~30 mb to these consistent HWRF 930ish pressures and I think that will be in the ballpark of actual pressure at landfall with 950 on the low end. Still a very dangerous storm obviously and surge/rainfall may be really high, too.
 
GaWx said:
Add ~30 mb to these consistent HWRF 930ish pressures and I think that will be in the ballpark of actual pressure at landfall with 950 on the low end. Still a very dangerous storm obviously and surge/rainfall may be really high, too.
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So we've got
12z EURO 988.....NOTE: 18z goes to 938.....guess HWRF isn't so crazy...as I thought
Icon 968
GFS. 953
UK. 954
HWRF 929
NAM. 890
Joe B. Is right. Three days away and we really don't know what to tell people.....this could be anywhere between nothing and a beast....
 
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Henry2326 said:
So we've got
EURO 988
Icon 968
GFS. 953
UK. 954
HWRF 929
NAM. 890
Joe B. Is right. Three days away and we really don't know what to tell people.....this could be anywhere between nothing and a beast....
Click to expand...

Agree but it will not make landfall at 890mb. That would be the strongest storm to ever make landfall


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Henry2326 said:
So we've got
EURO 988
Icon 968
GFS. 953
UK. 954
HWRF 929
NAM. 890
Joe B. Is right. Three days away and we really don't know what to tell people.....this could be anywhere between nothing and a beast....
Click to expand...

I would take the average and say it's going to be at least a category 3.
 
Henry2326 said:
So we've got
EURO 988
Icon 968
GFS. 953
UK. 954
HWRF 929
NAM. 890
Joe B. Is right. Three days away and we really don't know what to tell people.....this could be anywhere between nothing and a beast....
Click to expand...
Have to think something in the 960-970 range seems likely. I'll be interested to see where we are around 18z tomorrow when most models really start taking off.
 
SD said:
Have to think something in the 960-970 range seems likely. I'll be interested to see where we are around 18z tomorrow when most models really start taking off.
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Do you think theres a chance of a east shift in the models before landfall? That's a sharp right hook and it wouldn't take much for something to change that track
 
accu35 said:
Do you think theres a chance of a east shift in the models before landfall? That's a sharp right hook and it wouldn't take much for something to change that track
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I doubt it unless it really struggles to get going even then central La coast is as far east as I could see. The real potential error is left to me and this thing inching closer to Houston.

Also some questions for the short term are does the continued persistent convection to the south help bias the LLC to the SW? Is the new stuff going up over cuba to the E of the center the start of a more concentrated CDO and it sheds the stuff on the south side
 
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Shaggy said:
Even a blind squirrel. Remember when it had Gonzalo as like a 930mb in the islands?
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Except, this time, conditions in the Gulf have looked favorable for solid intensification. I am really concerned that a particularly dire situation developing. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this is sub 940 and strengthening into the coast, unless some miracle dry air appears or it interacts more than expected with Cuba or we get an ERC close to shore.
 
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