Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
I’m just surprised to see a model solution this far west into Texas... obviously it could very well be correct in the end, but it just looks to me like the Bermuda high should keep steering this thing and if it does the most likely outcome would be western or central Louisiana.
lexxnchloe
Member
I have a question for experts. If Marco fell apart because of bad contions why will laura get stronger in the same place?
Henry2326
Member
Lol.....in the past I would say "we will know 3 days prior"....now I say "we'll know the day before".....be ready for anything...
Brent
Member
Lol I mean the EPS is usually good though now granted the Euro has been horrible with this storm but it's always better to look at ensembles I'm not convinced one way or the other but look how much Marco shifted 2 days out it could still easily be Central Louisiana but I wouldn't write off Texas at all especially with the track having shifted south near Cuba since yesterday
I’m far from an expert, but I can say that the shearing that tore Marco apart earlier today is exiting the Gulf and an area of very calm winds aloft is moving in... that plus the water temperatures of 85-87 degrees throughout the Gulf is a perfect set up to intensify a hurricane rapidly.
lexxnchloe
Member
Thanks
Hurricane and storm surge watches issued for the Northwestern Gulf Coast.
NHC keeping the words “rapid strengthening” in the disc
Brent
Member
They mentioned the EPS being way left too
The latest runs of the dynamical models are in a
little better agreement, but the 1200 UTC ECMWF ensemble mean is
located considerably left of its deterministic run, indicating that
uncertainty regarding the track forecast remains
The latest runs of the dynamical models are in a
little better agreement, but the 1200 UTC ECMWF ensemble mean is
located considerably left of its deterministic run, indicating that
uncertainty regarding the track forecast remains
18z ICON has a 968 mb hurricane making landfall on the TX/LA border.
Shaggy
Member
Call me crazy but I'd be looking real hard at a ukmet ens and euro ensemble average. That tends to be a good combo 3 to 5 days out.
18z GFS is stronger and a bit west than the last run through 48 hours.
18z GFS has it making landfall as a 954 MB hurricane on the Louisiana coast.
Not only that, but the trough that killed Marco will give Laura a dang good northern outflow channel.
Henry2326
Member
18z Icon and GFS are practically the same as the last 2 runs.....and.....represented by an H on the NHC map....
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Looks like it's finally making the more northward turn. Also not sure if the mlc/llc might still be a little disjointed or the center may be a little elongated
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
The models are consistently showing a category 3 hurricane. I think we could see this get to 115 to 120 mph.
Henry2326
Member
18z HWRF.....slightly west compared to previous run.....aligned with Icon and GFS. 929 prior to landfall......staying consistent with the 930ish idea...
Add ~30 mb to these consistent HWRF 930ish pressures and I think that will be in the ballpark of actual pressure at landfall with 950 on the low end. Still a very dangerous storm obviously and surge/rainfall may be really high, too.
Henry2326
Member
So we've got
12z EURO 988.....NOTE: 18z goes to 938.....guess HWRF isn't so crazy...as I thought
Icon 968
GFS. 953
UK. 954
HWRF 929
NAM. 890
Joe B. Is right. Three days away and we really don't know what to tell people.....this could be anywhere between nothing and a beast....
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NoSnowATL
Member
?
Cary_Snow95
Member
Jessy89
Member
Agree but it will not make landfall at 890mb. That would be the strongest storm to ever make landfall
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I would take the average and say it's going to be at least a category 3.
Have to think something in the 960-970 range seems likely. I'll be interested to see where we are around 18z tomorrow when most models really start taking off.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
That is really concerning, especially when you consider the Euro op has been the weakest with Laura out of all the models.
I doubt it unless it really struggles to get going even then central La coast is as far east as I could see. The real potential error is left to me and this thing inching closer to Houston.
Also some questions for the short term are does the continued persistent convection to the south help bias the LLC to the SW? Is the new stuff going up over cuba to the E of the center the start of a more concentrated CDO and it sheds the stuff on the south side
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Brent
Member
The 18z euro is 939 mb!! What a turn of events for the King lol
Latest Euro run looks pretty worrisome.
994 from recon....yikes
Brent
Member
We laughed at the HWRF...
Tornadocane
Member
TBH... it was telling jokes.
Laura will be back over water in about two or three hours. I've got an eerie feeling right now for Houston.
Shaggy
Member
Even a blind squirrel. Remember when it had Gonzalo as like a 930mb in the islands?
Brent
Member
I just hope the NHC is right and it stays east of Houston
If it bombs and shifts west it's gonna be a disaster
If it bombs and shifts west it's gonna be a disaster
Except, this time, conditions in the Gulf have looked favorable for solid intensification. I am really concerned that a particularly dire situation developing. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this is sub 940 and strengthening into the coast, unless some miracle dry air appears or it interacts more than expected with Cuba or we get an ERC close to shore.
Tornadocane
Member
Yup. Praying. Houston would be a monumental blow to this country right now.
BHS1975
Member
They have been dead on with the tracks the last few years.
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