Interesting, uni flow and skinny cape tho, that’s a low topped sup/QLCS type sounding there from Laura’s remnants, kinda depends on timing to 
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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
The chances of a cat 3/4+ have went up significantly imo with it missing most of Cuba and entering bath water off the coast of Texas also my opinion. This looks worst case scenario for Texas
Brent
Member
The conservative NHC is even openly mentioning RI
Given the very conducive upper-level wind pattern
depicted by the global models, a period of rapid strengthening is
possible once Laura re-organizes an inner core after its passage
over western Cuba.
Given the very conducive upper-level wind pattern
depicted by the global models, a period of rapid strengthening is
possible once Laura re-organizes an inner core after its passage
over western Cuba.
Generally speaking, looking at the steering currents, is it safe to presume that the stronger Laura gets the further west she will track, and the weaker she stays, the further east she will track?
Not formally educated, just avid enthusiast and trying to make sense of the steering current maps so excuse my ignorance. I see different pressure values for different elevations, which is what I am basing my question off of.
Not formally educated, just avid enthusiast and trying to make sense of the steering current maps so excuse my ignorance. I see different pressure values for different elevations, which is what I am basing my question off of.
GFS has it making landfall as a 959 mb hurricane on the Lousiana coast.
Very intriguing center fix there
Brent
Member
UKMET shifted east into Southwest Louisiana 954 mb before landfall
I'm still questioning if the center fix is right
I'm still questioning if the center fix is right
Henry2326
Member
Henry2326
Member
Henry2326
Member
12z ICON slightly east of last forecast and slightly weaker at 972. It running slightly faster than GFS....
Henry2326
Member
12z GFS ...only change from 06Z is 959 pressure rather than 954.
Honestly think that’s the most realistic scenario
Small scale atmospheric differences that could prevent Laura from RI. She is going over a cold spot of water. I don't expect her to be significantly affected by this but it goes to show GOM is not as primed as it is made out to be. While the sea surface temperatures are great the oceanic heat content is not fantastic everywhere.
Attachments
Brad still going with no impacts even with the remnants here in NC
He may be right, but i think there's a decent shot at northern NC feeling a few impacts.
Henry2326
Member
ICON is and has been running faster than GFS and HWRF by about 12 hours. This version shortened tO 6 hours. The rapid intensification in the GFS happens in the last 12 hours before landfall.....
So if it the storm runs quicker, we get an Icon result.
If it runs slower we get a GFS/HWRF result.
All three are ending up in the same general area.
TCHP is plenty to support a top tier hurricane. It actually is pretty high for the GOM as a whole vs average. The first image is a few days ago and the second is while Michael was brewing.
Worst case is Laura does the Harvey/Michael impression where it bumbles about for a few days with only slow intensification and never really hits a massive RIC until close to land.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
GSP discussion.....The remnants
of tropical cyclones Laura and Marco will bring higher levels of
moisture and increased precipitation chances to the area by late week
Way healthier look than this morning
I'm not bashing anyone but for those living in flood prone areas you should monitor the national hurricane center and follow Laura closely. Screaming zero percent impacts on the top of your lungs on social media six days out is crazy whether they right or wrong. This was said 30 mins ago even after the latest NHC cone warns the majority of North Carolinian's could be impacted with flooding and tornadoes.
HWRF has it making landfall as a 934 MB hurricane on the Louisiana coast.
A couple things here. #1) The cone says nothing about flooding or tornado impacts. #2) The event is still several days away. It is way too early to be getting into specifics regarding impacts that far inland. It is much easier to slowly walk the impacts upward than it is to flip flop all over the place.
Henry2326
Member
12z HWRF identical to 06z other than 934 pressure compared to 931. It tracked on the south side of the islands and crosses over land coming off the island at 994, identical to GFS......Icon comes off at 1001 which is part of the variance in the pressure diiference.
I think you’re correct on this one and I don’t view this as bashing someone as much as questioning what they said. GSP mentions in its discussion this morning that the remnants will likely increase moisture and rain chances late in the week, and as has been discussed, a remnant low moving through Tennessee and the Carolinas could bring severe weather.
Can't say for sure but I think that center located to the west is starting to take over. Seeing more convective activity in that region vs the old center which has been devoid of any lightning activity for a couple hours.
Shaggy
Member
We all know intensity forecast are the hardest for NHC and the models to get right especially a storm thats interacting with land some what. It could very easily blow up or struggle to get an inner core.
This move to the south of Cuba ups its chances of cat 3 or better IMO.
At this point, assuming Laura doesn't interact much more with Cuba, I think TX/LA should prepare for AT LEAST a Cat 3 storm. Outside of a well-timed ERC or some unforeseen dry air punching the core, I don't see much impeding it's rapid intensification, once it's firmly in the GOM. Waters are quite warm, and I don't believe there will be too much shear to hinder it. An ERC may well be the best bet at capping intensity at landfall.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
The GFS looks to be a good middle of the road solution. ICON is weaker, HWRF is at the other extreme. A cat 3 seems reasonable.
Henry2326
Member
Yea, I'm expecting NHC to upgrade to a major later today or tomorrow. I said yesterday they need to wait and see how it comes off the island.
Henry2326
Member
Brent
Member
Euro in line with the other models finally lol but will it last? I'm still not 100 percent sold on anything there is a good consensus at the moment on around the border or SW LA though
accu35
Member
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Come on man!!! What about other places that's not NC that are fixing to get hit the hardest?? I understand your concern about your town but theres more than yours
Hmmm, maybe some weak shear close to landfall all though it’s not much 
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Euro and GFS very close to each other with the intensity and not too far off from each other with the track.
Henry2326
Member
This timing is running with ICON.....GFS and HWRF stay over water longer.
BufordWX
Member
The keys are already seeing a couple of noticeable wind gusts from the outer bands. I saw a report of a 70 mph wind gust in Key west.
With center south of Cuba... makes you wonder if their could be a more expansive wind field as it strengthens than what models are indicating
Brent
Member
So much for that Louisiana consensus
