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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

Marco continues to weaken. Could make it easier for Laura to get stronger.
 
ICON has it making landfall on the TX/LA border as a 964 mb hurricane. It's southwest of the last run.
 
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Gfs landfall further east
 
Tomorrow is the day we can lock down a trajectory for this system. This time tomorrow we will know how it handled half of the landmass. Looking at the ULL it isn’t well defined. Land is having an effect with the LLC and MLC causing the poles to be tilted. This hasn’t caused any major track problems tonight. By my calculations, it’s only off about 15 miles North from forecast track at 5pm. Laura has been trending south in the gulf with a strong area of HP. Marco may play a smaller roll with Laura then originally thought. The trough over the Midwest presses on the system west. Just going my models at 5pm the Midwest trough will cause Laura to come on shore around middle Louisiana. I’m not dismissing the NAM trajectory as of yet, but the strength is way overrated.


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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Tornadocane said:
Am I the only one that thinks Laura is transitioning into a beast right now?
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No you're not I've been getting increasingly concerned as I've seen the structure today over and near some of the highest mountains in the whole basin

It shouldn't even be strengthening now if the Gulf really does have the amazing upper level environment modeled it's gonna be ugly
 
I personally would not be wishcasting for what may be a Major Hurricane to make landfall anywhere near me during a pandemic and recession but hey that's just me.
 
Cadi40 said:
I personally would not be wishcasting for what may be a Major Hurricane to make landfall anywhere near me during a pandemic and recession but hey that's just me.
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I personally would not be wishcasting for what may be a Major Hurricane to make landfall anywhere near me EVER but hey that's just me.

Meanwhile, 0Z GEFS:
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0z HMON is further east at landfall. Louisiana landfall
 
A recent ASCAT pass shows a center relocation may be taking place to the area between Cuba and Jamaica. This could have massive ramifications for down the line. This center position would likely miss most of the Cuban peninsula. AF85B4A6-130C-45F6-93BD-BE8154E56EEC.jpeg
 
I say central Louisiana has been the target so far. Still a long ways and many more shifting to do
 
Yep. Here we go. Will be very interesting to follow. No model has the center anywhere near this far south.
 
Jrips2710 said:
Yep. Here we go. Will be very interesting to follow. No model has the center anywhere near this far south.
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If that's really the center the east shifts will halt

Also I wouldn't be surprised if we see higher intensity forecasts again if it can strengthen into a hurricane even before it gets past Cuba which seems like a possibility
 
Brent said:
Meanwhile the Ukmet shifted west to southwest of Houston and Galveston and is 40 miles inland with a pressure of 948 mb

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967 mb still an hour to my south way up here!
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That location is roughly 30 miles South of my parents' house. It is bad for Houston if it passes through 29.12 N 96.06 West.
 
I think we're going to see a cat 2, possibly cat 3,.make landfall.
 
If that center relocation is right the 0z models are trash anyway garbage in garbage out

But more time over water there's no good news

I have never seen the Euro so inconsistent

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LOOKS LIKE MARCO IS GETTING HAMMERED BY THE SHEAR AND LAURA MIGHT GET A CHANCE TO BLOW UP ENTERING INTO VERY FAVORABLE TERRITORY
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NOW IM NOT QUITE SURE HOW THE UPPER LEVEL STEERING AFFECTS A STORM BUT IT LOOKS TO ME THAT UNLESS THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US DOESNT GIVE AND ALLOWS THE STEERING WINDS TO MOVE MORE WEST THEN LAURA MAY HEAD FOR MS/AL/FL AREA...

PLEASE SOMEONE CORRECT ME IF THIS IS INACCURATE!!!!!!!
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PEA_RIDGE said:
LOOKS LIKE MARCO IS GETTING HAMMERED BY THE SHEAR AND LAURA MIGHT GET A CHANCE TO BLOW UP ENTERING INTO VERY FAVORABLE TERRITORY
View attachment 47081

NOW IM NOT QUITE SURE HOW THE UPPER LEVEL STEERING AFFECTS A STORM BUT IT LOOKS TO ME THAT UNLESS THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US DOESNT GIVE AND ALLOWS THE STEERING WINDS TO MOVE MORE WEST THEN LAURA MAY HEAD FOR MS/AL/FL AREA...

PLEASE SOMEONE CORRECT ME IF THIS IS INACCURATE!!!!!!!
View attachment 47082
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This has been something I’ve been wondering about since yesterday when Marco wasn’t making a turn to the west like predicted. The main steering influence on Laura is the Bermuda high, and unless it just strengthens and changes orientation enough to push her to the west, I just don’t see how she goes all the way to Texas. I’m with you, and really beginning to wonder if this isn’t more of a LA, MS, AL threat. Of course the folks at the Hurricane Center have been at this a long time and they’ve been fairly consistent on the track.
 
Chazwin said:
This has been something I’ve been wondering about since yesterday when Marco wasn’t making a turn to the west like predicted. The main steering influence on Laura is the Bermuda high, and unless it just strengthens and changes orientation enough to push her to the west, I just don’t see how she goes all the way to Texas. I’m with you, and really beginning to wonder if this isn’t more of a LA, MS, AL threat. Of course the folks at the Hurricane Center have been at this a long time and they’ve been fairly consistent on the track.
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12z today should be telling
 
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