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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

Arcc said:
I don’t know, while the HWRF is normally way to bullish, the area where Laura is headed is the prime area from rapid strengthening as we have seen time and time again in the past. I could see this easily reaching Cat 4 strength should the upper level conditions permit. Then I could see it weakening a good bit before landfall as it gulps the dry continental air of this region.
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We do need to keep in mind the cooling from the wake of Marco, too, as per @Stormsfury. Even when the warm water is deep the surface still normally cools some from a hurricane due to energy being taken away from the water and into the storm.

My wild guess as of this moment is that Laura will still end up quite the formidable storm and be in the 955-975 range at landfall.
 
Yeah, EURO is a bit strange. Essentially like Cowan said it dissipates Marco and leaves the remnants floating over the Gulf which turns Laura to the right and disrupts her leading to a weak storm.
 
Also, if you look at the EURO vs satellite I think the COC is further south than what the Euro is showing crossing Cuba. It weakens the circulation enough before interacting with Marco which is why it never really gets off the ground. The COC is further south currently than the Euro depicts and may not weaken as much as it shows with a due west movement at the moment.

Definitely would look at the Ensembles to see what I am going to assume will be some stark differences between the OP and its members.
 
Laura looks like a hot mess now! Cloud tops warming and becoming ugly on satellite
 
Some observation/questions from a guy who doesn't know anything re: upwelling and Laura... 1) Will Marco really cause much upwelling, considering his small size and relative weakness? 2) If he causes upwelling, won;t it be over a pretty narrow swath of the gulf. considering he's not exactly Katrina out there? 3) If upwelling decrease/slows an intensifying Laura, won;t she clear the "cooler" water, and be back in the bathtub pretty quick, as she moves potentially more west?
 
DarkKnight said:
I argee. But maybe considering the water is going to be already disturbed from the first storm coming thru might have a effect to make the second storm weaker..
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Problem on Euro is track almost runs the spine of Cuba, more land interaction weaker system. Current position is actually south of Euro initialization so if it stays south, less land interaction bombs away. Lots to work out still
 
NWTENN said:
Some observation/questions from a guy who doesn't know anything re: upwelling and Laura... 1) Will Marco really cause much upwelling, considering his small size and relative weakness? 2) If he causes upwelling, won;t it be over a pretty narrow swath of the gulf. considering he's not exactly Katrina out there? 3) If upwelling decrease/slows an intensifying Laura, won;t she clear the "cooler" water, and be back in the bathtub pretty quick, as she moves potentially more west?
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It isn't just "upwelling" per se that causes the surface to cool. In the current case, there isn't as much cooler water to upwell vs most other locations since it is deeply warm. It is also that TCs are as you must know literally feeding off the warmth of the near surface and surface waters they cross. Due to the law of conservation of energy, the sum total of energy remains constant. The heat energy of the ocean is converted into the kinetic energy associated with the storm. You can't feed off energy from a source without subsequently reducing the source's energy.

With the warmth being deep, it won't take as long for the upper ocean to warm back up after a storm crosses it. But it isn't immediate either.

I do know this much. There will not be as much energy on Laura's projected track to feed off of vs how much there would have been without Marco existing. And the stronger Marco gets, the less heat energy there will be when Laura crosses. How much difference Marco's wake will make in Laura's strength is anyone's guess.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservation_of_energy

"This law, first proposed and tested by Émilie du Châtelet, means that energy can neither be created nor destroyed; rather, it can only be transformed or transferred from one form to another. For instance, chemical energy is converted to kinetic energy when a stick of dynamite explodes."
 
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547
URNT15 KNHC 231913
AF305 0813A LAURA HDOB 27 20200823
190330 1950N 07423W 6961 03147 //// +086 //// 107035 038 048 003 01
190400 1948N 07424W 6965 03141 //// +085 //// 103037 039 047 002 01
190430 1947N 07425W 6968 03135 0045 +088 //// 103033 035 041 004 01
190500 1945N 07426W 6963 03137 0033 +089 //// 100035 037 041 003 01
190530 1944N 07427W 6973 03121 9997 +103 +098 085027 034 040 001 01
190600 1942N 07428W 6962 03137 0000 +111 +092 076024 025 042 005 00
190630 1940N 07428W 6956 03135 0025 +096 //// 105009 025 042 006 01
190700 1938N 07427W 6950 03142 //// +090 //// 081004 009 043 005 01
190730 1936N 07427W 6969 03125 //// +096 //// 093008 009 042 002 01
190800 1935N 07427W 6976 03121 0006 +106 +092 124012 015 042 004 00
190830 1933N 07428W 6969 03130 0024 +100 +090 138014 016 042 008 00
190900 1931N 07429W 6962 03135 //// +088 //// 158019 020 040 004 01
190930 1930N 07430W 6969 03126 0012 +098 +095 151020 021 040 004 03
191000 1929N 07432W 6964 03127 9995 +109 +097 129014 020 040 004 03
191030 1928N 07433W 6965 03127 9984 +120 +088 128009 011 038 001 03
191100 1926N 07434W 6965 03125 9991 +113 +091 158011 012 038 002 03
191130 1925N 07435W 6966 03124 9992 +109 +095 160005 010 033 001 00
191200 1925N 07437W 6961 03130 9995 +106 +096 011007 012 026 000 00
191230 1924N 07439W 6969 03121 0000 +102 +099 356019 021 026 000 03
191300 1923N 07440W 6965 03129 //// +097 //// 355029 031 031 003 01
$$
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Pressure is down to 998.4 mb.
 
Brent said:
929 mb just east of Galveston

View attachment 47042
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The 929 mb of the 12Z HWRF is likely much too low based on bias and that it may not even be taking into account Marco's wake. Does the HWRF for Laura even know that Marco exists? The 1001 mb Euro seems ridiculously too high because it is likely just out to lunch and assuming too much land interaction.

Let's see: (929 +1,001)/2 = 965 mb.. I'm going with that as a first guess with a likely range of 955-975 mb.
 
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TWC ( I know?) keeps hyping Laura a pretty good bit. Hedging their bets on a Cat 2 landfall now, with “potential to be a lot stronger”
 
Brent said:
If this thing is only a TS in the Gulf I'll be nothing short of shocked look at the structure this is supposed to be it's weakest given it went over Hispanola lol

View attachment 47046
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Hispaniola imo is somewhat overrated as far as how much it degrades storms. As I assume you know, a relatively weak and poorly organized storm at the surface like Laura was as it first went over the island (a "mess" as some were calling it) can go over the island and hardly weaken as there is still plenty of surrounding very warm water keeping the overall atmosphere supportive. Also, Laura has always had a much better organization up a few thousand feet vs near the surface. This higher up organization should mean less tearing up by the mountains vs a well organized LLC.

I agree that the Euro's maxing out as a TS seems way off.
 
Would love to see it stay south all the way into the Caribbean the entire length of Cuba then come north strong and go over waters untouched from Marco in eastern gulf
 
908
URNT15 KNHC 232003
AF305 0813A LAURA HDOB 32 20200823
195330 1921N 07440W 6959 03143 //// +082 //// 286011 013 033 003 05
195400 1923N 07441W 6970 03130 //// +087 //// 300013 013 030 000 01
195430 1924N 07441W 6967 03131 //// +088 //// 317012 013 030 000 01
195500 1926N 07441W 6966 03129 0014 +091 +086 333010 011 031 000 01
195530 1928N 07441W 6974 03118 0015 +096 +081 321009 009 029 002 03
195600 1929N 07440W 6964 03127 0012 +096 +083 271005 009 031 002 03
195630 1931N 07440W 6967 03122 9998 +107 +080 175002 004 028 000 00
195700 1933N 07441W 6969 03120 9974 +127 +070 104005 007 028 001 03
195730 1934N 07441W 6967 03122 9970 +130 +065 139010 013 023 000 03
195800 1936N 07440W 6963 03124 9969 +128 +069 144016 018 028 000 00
195830 1937N 07439W 6967 03119 9971 +125 +078 143023 026 041 000 00
195900 1939N 07437W 6965 03120 9976 +121 +085 137026 027 042 000 00
195930 1940N 07436W 6969 03118 9982 +117 +088 143032 035 042 003 00
200000 1941N 07435W 6969 03120 9994 +108 +091 145040 042 041 001 00
200030 1942N 07433W 6970 03123 0006 +101 +094 146041 042 040 004 00
200100 1944N 07432W 6961 03133 0024 +092 //// 152041 043 041 006 01
200130 1945N 07430W 6969 03126 0031 +092 //// 152037 039 039 005 01
200200 1946N 07429W 6971 03127 //// +088 //// 155030 039 038 006 01
200230 1948N 07428W 6967 03132 //// +090 //// 150030 034 036 003 01
200300 1949N 07426W 6965 03135 0036 +086 +085 149037 037 035 003 01
$$
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Pressure down to 996.9 mb.
 
312
URNT15 KNHC 232013
AF305 0813A LAURA HDOB 33 20200823
200330 1950N 07425W 6967 03135 //// +079 //// 150040 040 040 004 01
200400 1951N 07423W 6966 03137 0053 +081 //// 153041 041 050 009 01
200430 1953N 07422W 6960 03141 0049 +085 +085 166048 060 053 033 00
200500 1954N 07420W 7014 03081 0070 +089 +089 161063 068 055 024 00
200530 1956N 07419W 6955 03152 0059 +094 +094 151067 071 056 023 03
200600 1957N 07418W 6978 03125 0062 +096 +096 149067 072 050 023 00
200630 1958N 07416W 6968 03141 0066 +096 +096 153059 065 051 022 03
200700 1959N 07415W 6970 03141 0070 +094 +094 153054 057 049 012 00
200730 2001N 07413W 6967 03151 0076 +094 +094 154050 054 049 010 00
200800 2002N 07412W 6972 03147 0085 +091 +091 144046 048 050 010 00
200830 2003N 07411W 6969 03152 0091 +088 +088 143043 045 047 010 03
200900 2004N 07409W 6967 03155 0086 +088 +088 143039 040 047 009 00
200930 2006N 07408W 6967 03157 0083 +088 +088 148041 042 049 008 00
201000 2007N 07407W 6967 03158 0091 +085 +085 147045 046 050 007 03
201030 2008N 07405W 6968 03157 0091 +085 +085 148046 046 045 009 00
201100 2010N 07404W 6967 03159 0087 +080 //// 148044 046 044 010 05
201130 2011N 07403W 6964 03164 //// +077 //// 145045 047 046 003 01
201200 2013N 07404W 6967 03159 //// +079 //// 141044 044 045 003 01
201230 2015N 07404W 6888 03249 //// +078 //// 142041 043 043 001 01
201300 2018N 07404W 6679 03502 //// +063 //// 140037 040 043 001 01
$$
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Unflagged 55 kt SFMR and 71 kt flight level winds.
 
smast16 said:
Every single member has it heading NW from initialization, and the storm Is moving due west at this point. Horrible run for Euro.

Throw every one of them out.
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Yeah I was gonna say I don't buy this run at all

I could see Louisiana but not the way it shows
 
ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
LAURA JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY OVER
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 75.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the the Florida Keys north of Craig
Key and for Florida Bay has been discontinued.

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued all
Tropical Storm Warnings for the Dominican Republic.

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands, and for the southeastern
Bahamas except for Inagua and the Ragged Islands. The Tropical
Storm Watch for the central Bahamas and Andros Island has been
discontinued.
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Winds up to 60 mph and pressure down to 1000 mb.
 
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