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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

Air recon looks to be consistently finding ts strength winds now with this NE pass.
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Jon said:
6z HWRF is ruining weenie hopes here so far.

Slowing development and moving moisture south.


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Looks like it still entered the GOM at 955mb. I think once this think gets north of Hispaniola and near the Bahamas is when we’ll truly be able to tell what we’re getting into that way we can see how it strengthens in that environment.
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What are the odds the models shift back east? Isaias trended west and then quickly shifted back east, as did Dorian


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Recon found a center pressure of 1011mb. I don’t think they found a center last night but I could be wrong.
 
Just looking at the 06Z spaghetti tracks for both 13&14 and I would like to think if these two even came close to tracking over the same areas somewhere after landfall someone could be looking at some major flooding issues.
 
Ethan80963 said:
Looks like it still entered the GOM at 955mb. I think once this think gets north of Hispaniola and near the Bahamas is when we’ll truly be able to tell what we’re getting into that way we can see how it strengthens in that environment.
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Oh, yeah. Once it’s in the gulf it’s prime for rapid strengthening. But any delay is better than not. Also more land interaction, the HWRF could still be juicing it up a little too much once in the gulf. I’d like to see other intensity modeling follow


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Yep, we have Laura
000
WTNT63 KNHC 211305
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
905 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
STRENGTHENED TO TROPICAL STORM LAURA...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Tropical
Depression Thirteen has strengthened and is now Tropical Storm
Laura with maximum sustained winds of around 45 mph (75 km/h). The
aircraft also found that the center of Laura is located south of the
previously estimated position. These changes will be reflected in
the track and intensity forecasts with the upcoming advisory that
will be issued at 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 905 AM AST...1305 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 59.8W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Pasch
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Chazwin said:
I think you’re probably on to something there. Of the Hurricanes that I’ve read up on that went went well inland off the Atlantic into Georgia and the Carolinas, I’ve not found any that the center ends up crossing the Appalachians. Hugo and Gracie were probably the closest, but both of those still turned.
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Florence. Was TD in Tennessee.
 
Over the past 5 runs I have continued to monitor the threat the DR and Haiti will interact with TD13. The trend is the upper level low in the MA along with the same strength WAR is beginning to press on the LLC further south. The UL over Columbia has been south drifting as well. This leaves me to believe at this point that TD13 will have more land interaction by this Sunday and very well may weaken and become a disorganized tropical storm. I also feel that a ULC will become harder to organize this weekend with dryer air out ahead of the system. This weekend would be a good time to sit down and determine the severity of the system around Florida and the Gulf.

-D
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