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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

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11am NHC cone
 
I never believe it go as Far East as Texas. And I still don’t think that be the case. Louisiana is as Far East this goes. And I agree Florida is still in play. My reason for believing this is that High pressure will pick it up turn it north before it goes to Texas


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Henry2326 said:
Looks like they agree with HWRF, GFS, and Icon.......will be interesting tomorrow to see if the H goes to an M....I can't imagine they would make that call until it comes off the islands....
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Looks like it could be a cat 2 at least, possibly cat 3.
 
CADEffect said:
Another concept to think about is that #TSMarco will be in the Gulf first. The trough has actually pulled the storm north and will completely miss the Yucatán. #TSLaura will be moving in the exact waters Marco traveled in. Cooling the waters before Laura arrives. This will hamper any major redevelopment once Laura emerges from Cuba.

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It's not like it's going to turn the water into a 60° chill.
 
Jessy89 said:
I never believe it go as Far East as Texas. And I still don’t think that be the case. Louisiana is as Far East this goes. And I agree Florida is still in play. My reason for believing this is that High pressure will pick it up turn it north before it goes to Texas


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Do you mean as far WEST as Texas ?
 
I may be alone on an island guys, but I see why TSLaura is strengthening right now. Water is like a bath in the Caribbean. I still believe we are only looking at a upper cat one in the gulf possibly a weak two. Just the water is a lot cooler then you guys think. Speed is also a factor.

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Henry2326 said:
@SD

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Hard to see that though maybe the far western tip of the Panhandle. Ridge across the SE into Fl and the SW Atlantic is really stacking from 850 up. I think with the weak upper low closing off and backing west across Tx if there is a big surprise in track it would likely be west.
 
From an intensity perspective 12z GFS is about 12 MB weaker than 6z run but in pretty much exact same spot for landfall. 976 at LA/TX border.
 
Henry2326 said:
@SD

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I could see that possibly happening. This thing is going to ride these Islands that have a lot of terrain. I could see it slowing down a bit as it interacts with the mountains of Cuba. Of course, this is all subject to change. I wouldn't dismiss any options at this point. There is that one model that still has it going over the FL panhandle into GA, and the Carolina's. It's an outliner for sure, but as we learned during Irma, things can change.
 
Henry2326 said:
06z Icon comes off the island at 1002, but only makes it to 966....its a little bit faster getting there, so less time over water......landfall same as GFS. Same as GFS and HWRF coming off Island on north corner.

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966 would still be close to a major H/very dangerous storm and would represent major and pretty rapid strengthening from 1002. I recommend folks take projections like many from HWRF that get way down into the 930s with a huge grain at least for now since especially the HWRF has a pronounced over strengthening bias.
 
WCLumpkin said:
I think you missed Irma on your map. It definitely came past your block line.
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No, Irma came past the "block" as a depression. I based the map on tropical storm strength or stronger. The last time parts of N. AL got a tropical storm strength for example was Ivan and Katrina 2004 & 2005. All tropical storm strength systems for the past 15 years have either gone up the Carolina's or when up into Ark-La-Tex area.
 
GaWx said:
All of those north outlier HWRF runs through as recent as 12Z yesterday taking Laura to the north of PR and Hispaniola when almost all other models had already gone quite a bit further south? Big fail.
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06z HWRF was aligned with 06 GFS and 06 Icon....see my earlier post....
 
GaWx said:
966 would still be close to a major H/very dangerous storm and would represent major and pretty rapid strengthening from 1002. I recommend folks take projections like many from HWRF that get way down into the 930s with a huge grain at least for now since especially the HWRF has a pronounced over strengthening bias.
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Again see my earlier post concerning alignment of HWRF, Icon, and GFS at 06z.
 
GaWx said:
966 would still be close to a major H/very dangerous storm and would represent major and pretty rapid strengthening from 1002. I recommend folks take projections like many from HWRF that get way down into the 930s with a huge grain at least for now since especially the HWRF has a pronounced over strengthening bias.
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I don’t know, while the HWRF is normally way to bullish, the area where Laura is headed is the prime area from rapid strengthening as we have seen time and time again in the past. I could see this easily reaching Cat 4 strength should the upper level conditions permit. Then I could see it weakening a good bit before landfall as it gulps the dry continental air of this region.
 
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